Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 19, 2025, 22:25 UTC

Changes and New Information (21:56 UTC - 22:25 UTC)

1. DRONE ATTACK ON KHARKIV OBLAST (UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE, CONFIRMED):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:58 UTC) reports new groups of attack drones in Kharkiv Oblast, moving westward.
   • Assessment: This indicates a NEW WAVE OF DRONE ATTACKS, expanding the geographical scope of the assault beyond the areas previously targeted tonight. Kharkiv Oblast joins the list of regions under IMMEDIATE THREAT.

2. MOSCOW FIRE AT INSTITUTE OF COMPUTATIONAL TECHNOLOGY (ASTRA, CONFIRMED):

   • ASTRA (21:59 UTC) reports a fire at the Institute of Computational Technology in Moscow. The fire covers 1500 square meters, and the roof has collapsed. Over 170 personnel and 50 units of equipment are involved in firefighting. 30 people evacuated, with no reported casualties. Multiple images and videos show the fire, including one with a helicopter engaged in firefighting.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS a MAJOR FIRE at a potentially STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT FACILITY in Moscow. While the cause is unknown, the scale and location raise concerns. The Institute of Computational Technology could be involved in research relevant to military applications or critical infrastructure. The fire COULD BE ACCIDENTAL, but the possibility of SABOTAGE OR A CYBERATTACK cannot be ruled out. FURTHER INVESTIGATION is CRITICAL.

3. UKRAINIAN FORCED EVACUATION OF CHASIV YAR CLAIM (RUSSIAN SOURCE, UNVERIFIED):

   • ТАСС (22:01 UTC) claims, citing military expert Vitaly Kiselev, that Ukrainian forces are forcibly evacuating residents of Chasiv Yar.
   • Assessment: This claim REQUIRES VERIFICATION. It could be PROPAGANDA intended to portray Ukrainian forces negatively. However, if true, it could indicate ANTICIPATION OF INTENSE FIGHTING in the area, suggesting a possible RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE is expected.

4. CLAIMED "SUICIDE EPIDEMIC" IN RUSSIAN ARMY (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, UNVERIFIED):

   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (22:03 UTC) claims, citing a Russian soldier named Svyatoslav Golikov, that there is a "suicide epidemic" in the Russian army due to a lack of evacuation for the wounded. The claim also states that Russian soldiers fear their officers more than the enemy. Includes an image.
   • Assessment: This claim REQUIRES VERIFICATION. It could be PROPAGANDA or DISINFORMATION. However, if true, it indicates SERIOUS MORALE PROBLEMS AND LOGISTICAL DEFICIENCIES within the Russian military. This would significantly impact combat effectiveness.

5. AIR TARGET OVER MYKOLAIV OBLAST (UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE, CONFIRMED):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (22:04 UTC) and РБК-Україна (22:05 UTC) report a "high-speed target" over Mykolaiv Oblast.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (22:06 UTC) reports the target continuing towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
   • Николаевский Ванёк (22:07 UTC) reports cruise missiles east of Voznesensk, heading north.
   • Николаевский Ванёк (22:11 UTC) reports that the missiles have left Mykolaivs'ka Oblast, flying toward Kropyvnyts'kyy/Dolyns'ka.
   • Assessment: This confirms an AIR ATTACK, likely a MISSILE STRIKE, targeting MYKOLAIV AND KIROVOHRAD OBLASTS. The "high-speed target" designation suggests a ballistic or cruise missile.

6. CLAIMED ATTACK ON MOSCOW DPS PATROL (RUSSIAN SOURCE, UNVERIFIED):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (22:05 UTC) reports an attack on a DPS (Road Patrol Service) patrol in Moscow by two unknown individuals. The suspects have been detained, and a criminal case has been opened. Includes video and images.
   • Assessment: This claim REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The video shows a damaged car and police with weapons drawn, suggesting a potentially serious incident. However, the nature of the attack and the motives of the perpetrators remain UNCLEAR. It could be CRIMINAL ACTIVITY, TERRORISM, or even a staged incident.

7. POSSIBLE BAN ON REMOTE EDUCATION FOR DOCTORS AND PHARMACISTS IN RUSSIA (TASS, REPORTED):

   • ТАСС (22:07 UTC) reports that the State Duma Committee on Science and Higher Education has supported an amendment that could completely prohibit distance education for doctors and pharmacists.
   • Assessment: This decision, if implemented, MAY INDICATE A DESIRE TO IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF MEDICAL TRAINING in Russia, potentially in response to the demands of the war. It could also be an attempt to CENTRALIZE CONTROL over medical education.

8. HERSON CASUALTIES CONFIRMED (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):

   • РБК-Україна (22:07 UTC) reports that two 13-year-old twins, a boy and a girl, were injured in the Kherson airstrike. They have mine-explosive injuries and acute stress reactions and are currently hospitalized.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CIVILIAN CASUALTIES from the Russian airstrike on Kherson, further supporting the assessment that this was a potential WAR CRIME. The targeting of children is particularly egregious.

9. AVDIIVKA DESTRUCTION (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):

   • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (22:10 UTC) shows images of widespread and complete destruction in Avdiivka.
   • Assessment: This destruction will greatly hinder any Ukrainian counter-offensive.

10. ODESSA DRONE ATTACK UPDATE (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):

    • РБК-Україна (22:13 UTC) reports that Odesa has been under massive drone attack for two consecutive days. The attack caused fires at a catering facility and a warehouse, and damaged an administrative building, a car wash, a roadway, and the glazing of a private house. A 55-year-old man was hospitalized. About 5,000 residents in one of the city's districts are without power.
    • Assessment: This confirms CONTINUED AND INTENSE DRONE ATTACKS on Odesa, causing SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and DISRUPTING ESSENTIAL SERVICES.

11. CLAIMED US OVERSIGHT OF AID TO UKRAINE (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REPORTED):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (22:13 UTC) reports, citing former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, that the US is carefully monitoring aid provided to Ukraine, and there have been no reports of aid disappearing. Herbst also stated that a significant portion of the aid was spent in the US on American arms manufacturers.
    • Assessment: A statement to reassure the American public.

12. RUSSIAN CLAIM OF ADVANCE IN DONBASS (RUSSIAN SOURCE, UNVERIFIED):

    • ТАСС (22:24 UTC), citing First Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Sergey Rudskoy, claims that Russian forces have liberated about 75% of the DPR, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, and less than 1% of the LPR remains to be liberated.
    • Assessment: This claim REQUIRES VERIFICATION. It is likely PROPAGANDA intended to portray Russian success. Independent verification of territorial control is difficult, and Russian claims are often EXAGGERATED.

13. DRONE THREAT TO VINNYTSIA OBLAST (UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE, CONFIRMED):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (22:24 UTC): Announces the threat of a drone strike on the Vinnyts'ka Oblast.
    • Assessment: The drone attacks continue.

14. CLAIMED FORCED MOBILIZATION IN UKRAINE (RUSSIAN SOURCE, UNVERIFIED):

* *TASS*(22:23 UTC): reports that mobilization is done forcefully and doesn't replenish losses.

* **Assessment**: This claim is not verified and could be misinformation.

15. CLAIM: ZELENSKIY ARREST ON THE HORIZON (RUSSIAN SOURCE, UNVERIFIED): * Colonelcassad (22:20 UTC): Reports that Barron Trump's son said, "The arrest of Zelensky is on the horizon". * Assessment: This claim is misinformation.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXPANDING DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Drone attacks are ONGOING and EXPANDING to include KHARKOV AND VINNYTSIA OBLASTS, in addition to previous targets.
• MISSILE STRIKES TARGETING MYKOLAIV AND KIROVOHRAD OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A "high-speed target," likely a missile, has been detected and is moving across southern Ukraine.
• CONFIRMED AIRSTRIKE ON CIVILIAN TARGET IN KHERSON, INCLUDING CHILDREN (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The airstrike on Kherson has resulted in CONFIRMED INJURIES TO TWO CHILDREN, constituting a potential WAR CRIME.
• SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES IN ODESA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Drone attacks continue to cause SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE and DISRUPT ESSENTIAL SERVICES.
• MAJOR FIRE AT POTENTIALLY STRATEGIC FACILITY IN MOSCOW (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The fire at the Institute of Computational Technology requires URGENT INVESTIGATION to determine the cause and potential impact.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Russian sources are spreading claims about Ukrainian forced evacuations, a "suicide epidemic" in the Russian army, and territorial gains. CAREFUL ANALYSIS AND VERIFICATION are ESSENTIAL.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME AND EXPANDED AIR DEFENSE ALERT, PRIORITIZE NEW THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Expand air defense coverage to include KHARKIV AND VINNYTSIA OBLASTS.
   • Deploy additional air defense assets to areas experiencing increased drone and missile activity.
   • Coordinate closely with regional military administrations to ensure RAPID RESPONSE to new threats.
   • Prepare for the possibility of further drone waves and missile strikes and MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for the FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
   • Prioritize air defense of KROPYVNYTSKYI and other potential targets in KIROVOHRAD OBLAST.

2. ADDRESS HUMANITARIAN SITUATION IN KHERSON AND ODESA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Continue to provide immediate assistance to those affected by the attacks, including medical care, shelter, and essential supplies.
   • Prioritize the care of the injured children in Kherson.
   • Continue efforts to restore power and water services in Odesa.

3. URGENTLY INVESTIGATE MOSCOW FIRE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Determine the cause of the fire at the Institute of Computational Technology.
   • Assess the potential damage to sensitive research or technology.
   • Investigate the possibility of sabotage or a cyberattack.
   • Monitor for any claims of responsibility.

4. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue efforts to disseminate accurate information and expose Russian disinformation.
   • Focus on countering specific claims related to forced evacuations, the "suicide epidemic," and territorial gains.
   • Highlight the civilian casualties caused by Russian attacks.

5. VERIFY REPORTS OF ATTACK ON DPS PATROL IN MOSCOW (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather additional information about the alleged attack on the DPS patrol.
   • Determine the nature of the attack and the motives of the perpetrators.
   • Assess the potential security implications.

6. MONITOR SITUATION IN CHASIV YAR (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Attempt to verify the claim of forced evacuations in Chasiv Yar.
   • Monitor for any signs of increased military activity in the area.

7. VERIFY CLAIMS OF THE RUSSIAN SOLDIER (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Attempt to locate the source of the claim.
   • Check if the soldier actually exists.
   • Cross-check the information with other sources.

8. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS, VOLATILE, AND DYNAMIC. The EXPANSION OF DRONE ATTACKS, the CONFIRMED MISSILE STRIKES, the CONTINUED CIVILIAN CASUALTIES, and the MAJOR FIRE IN MOSCOW create a COMPLEX AND EVOLVING THREAT LANDSCAPE. RAPID RESPONSE, PRECISION TARGETING, EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION, HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE, and THOROUGH INVESTIGATION are ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL.