Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 19, 2025, 19:55 UTC
Changes and New Information (19:30 UTC - 19:55 UTC)
CONTINUED DRONE ATTACKS ON ODESA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Николаевский Ванёк (19:36 UTC) reports four drones from the sea heading towards Odesa.
Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (19:52 UTC) states that Odesa is under heavy attack, with a fourth wave of drones in the last hour.
Colonelcassad (19:30, 19:53 UTC) reports chaotic shooting at drones in Odesa and claims strikes near the port, with power outages. Multiple videos provided.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS an INTENSE, MULTI-WAVE DRONE ATTACK on Odesa is ONGOING. The reports of strikes near the port and power outages indicate SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE to critical infrastructure. The "chaotic shooting" suggests air defenses are struggling to cope with the scale of the attack. ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE: Air defense systems must REMAIN AT MAXIMUM ALERT, and civilians must REMAIN IN SHELTERS.
DRONE THREAT TO KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:40 UTC) reports an enemy drone in the eastern part of Kyiv.
КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (19:41, 19:42 UTC) announces an air raid alert in Kyiv due to a possible drone attack and provides instructions for shelter access.
РБК-Україна (19:43 UTC) reports an air raid alert in Kyiv and several regions due to drones.
Оперативний ЗСУ (19:44) announced the air raid alert in Kyiv.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS an ACTIVE DRONE THREAT to Kyiv. The rapid sequence of alerts indicates an IMMEDIATE DANGER. ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE: Air defense systems in Kyiv must be at MAXIMUM ALERT. Civilians should SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
DRONE ACTIVITY IN SUMY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:38 UTC) reports new groups of attack drones in Sumy Oblast, moving in a westerly direction.
Assessment: This indicates a CONTINUED AND EXPANDING DRONE THREAT in Sumy Oblast. The westward movement suggests potential targets further inside Ukraine. ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE: Air defenses in the path of these drones must be alerted and prepared.
GUIDED AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS IN DONETSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:44 UTC) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast.
Assessment: This confirms CONTINUED AIR ATTACKS in Donetsk Oblast, adding to the ONGOING PRESSURE on Ukrainian forces in the region.
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (19:30 UTC) shows thermal drone footage of a strike on a vehicle, claiming it was a Ukrainian vehicle.
Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION, but if confirmed, it demonstrates the CONTINUED USE OF DRONES in the conflict and the VULNERABILITY OF VEHICLES to such attacks. The claim that it was a Ukrainian vehicle should be TREATED WITH SKEPTICISM, given the source.
UKRAINIAN MILITARY ACTION REPORT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):
ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (19:45) posted a video of an attack.
Assessment: The video demonstrates the use of drones to target and engage individual soldiers. It also shows the potential risks.
US MISSILE TEST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO/IMAGES):
Два майора (19:36 UTC) reports a US test launch of a Minuteman III ICBM, claiming it is a demonstration of force against Zelensky. Images and video provided.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS a US ICBM test. While such tests are routine, the timing MAY be intended as a signal of US resolve, though the claim that it is specifically directed at Zelensky is HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
RUSSIAN FUNDRAISING FOR EQUIPMENT (LOW PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):
Два майора (19:50 UTC) shows soldiers calling for help.
Assessment: Confirms the need for support in the region.
PROPAGANDA:
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (19:47 UTC) stated "America, like in 1944, decided that it was time to help the winner."
Assessment: This is PROPAGANDA, aimed at criticizing US involvement.
DeepState (19:46) shares quotes.
Assessment: This is propaganda, aiming to put Ukraine at risk with their "most important ally."
STERNENKO (19:30:50) stated ""Пацан к успєху шьол" наш пілот зобразив Русоріз, наданий Спільнотою Стерненка, який вказує шлях російському окупанту назад до Улан-Уде."
Assessment: This is an attempt at propaganda, with little-no real effect.
Николаевский Ванёк (19:47) states "проклятый «капитан команды КВН» не прогибается, собака, мешает, приходится ненавистной Америке на него жаловаться и плакаться «сделайте с ним что-небудь»."
Assessment: This is propaganda, and also contains misinformation.
Colonelcassad (19:43 UTC) states "Маск: Зеленский не может претендовать на то, чтобы представлять волю народа Украины, пока не восстановит свободу прессы и не прекратит отменять выборы."
Assessment: This has the potential to influence public opinion in countries supporting Ukraine. If believed, it could erode support for continued aid or military assistance.
OTHER REPORTS:
Zelenskiy / Official (19:32), 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦(19:32), КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація)(19:33), Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА(19:34), Оперативний ЗСУ(19:39), РБК-Україна(19:47) posted videos about meetings and negotiations to happen during the 3rd year of the war.
Assessment: These videos detail the ongoing efforts for Ukrainian representatives to stay in touch with leaders of friendly nations, as well as working on infrastructure and maintaining the military operations.
ASTRA (19:52) reports an issue with Russian troops in Armenia.
Assessment: It highlights a disregard for the sovereign nation.
Два майора (19:52) shows an image of an aircraft.
Assessment: Suggests a possibility of air operations.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (19:48) posts a video of a Russian attack.
Assessment: It proves the intensity of fighting in urban environments.
Updated Situation Summary
INTENSE, MULTI-WAVE DRONE ATTACK ON ODESA CONTINUES, TARGETING PORT AND INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The drone attack on Odesa is ONGOING AND SEVERE, with multiple waves targeting the city and surrounding areas. Strikes near the port and WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES are reported.
ACTIVE DRONE THREAT TO KYIV, AIR RAID ALERT IN EFFECT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A drone threat has been reported in Kyiv, prompting an air raid alert and urging civilians to seek shelter.
EXPANDING DRONE THREATS ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):NEW drone threats reported in SUMY OBLAST (moving west) and KREMENCHUK, indicating a WIDESPREAD AND INTENSIFYING AIR OFFENSIVE.
CONTINUED GUIDED AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS IN DONETSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Air attacks continue in Donetsk Oblast, maintaining pressure on Ukrainian forces.
US ICBM TEST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A US ICBM test has been conducted, likely as a routine demonstration of capability, but potentially timed to signal resolve.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS, PRIORITIZE ODESA AND KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Continue to prioritize air defense operations in ODESA, with a FOCUS on countering the MULTI-WAVE DRONE ATTACKS and protecting CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
IMMEDIATELY deploy and activate air defense systems in KYIV in response to the NEW THREAT.
Maintain clear and frequent communication with the public about air raid alerts and safety procedures.
Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure, especially energy facilities.
Alert and prepare air defenses in the path of drones in SUMY OBLAST.
Maintain a high alert status for air defense in KREMENCHUK.
Utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported drone strike on a vehicle.
Determine the identity of the vehicle's occupants and the EXTENT OF DAMAGE.
INVESTIGATE PROPAGANDA CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY):
Thoroughly investigate the claims made to undermine and attack Ukraine's alliances.
Review security protocols for information.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY VOLATILE. The INTENSIFYING DRONE ATTACKS ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS, particularly the ONGOING AND SEVERE ATTACK ON ODESA and the NEW THREAT TO KYIV, pose an IMMEDIATE AND WIDESPREAD THREAT. The CONTINUED AIR ATTACKS IN DONETSK OBLAST add to the pressure. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to protect civilians, counter threats, and maintain operational effectiveness.
