Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 19, 2025, 18:25 UTC

Changes and New Information (17:55 UTC - 18:25 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE (MoD) CLAIMS LIBERATION OF SETTLEMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • MoD Russia (20:26 UTC) claims Russian forces liberated Figolevka and Sverdlikovo, also reporting significant Ukrainian damage, including destruction of an Abrams tank and 2 Bradley fighting vehicles.
   • Assessment: This is UNVERIFIED and REQUIRES CONFIRMATION. It is consistent with other reports of Russian advances, but the specific claims of destroying Western-supplied equipment, especially an Abrams tank, should be treated with SKEPTICISM until independently verified. This may be propaganda to boost morale.

2. RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY DESTROY UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT IN SUMY REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (20:26 UTC) claims Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian equipment in the Sumy region, including a communication tower.
   • Assessment: UNVERIFIED but PLAUSIBLE, given the ongoing reports of cross-border shelling and drone activity in the Sumy region. The destruction of a communication tower, if true, is SIGNIFICANT as it disrupts Ukrainian communications and could be a precursor to further Russian actions in the area. URGENT VERIFICATION is required.

3. RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY DESTROY UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT NEAR MAKEEVKA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Сливочный каприз (20:25) reports successful targeting of a Ukrainian armored personnel carrier near Makeevka.
     • Assessment: UNVERIFIED. This aligns with reports of ongoing fighting in the broader area, but REQUIRES INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION.

4. PUTIN VISITS "RADAR MMS" FACTORY IN ST. PETERSBURG, SHOWN DRONEPORT (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (17:58 UTC) shows video of Putin visiting the "Radar MMS" factory, being shown a "droneport."
   • Assessment: This visit highlights Russia's focus on drone technology. While not an immediate threat, it underscores the LONG-TERM importance of counter-drone capabilities and Russian efforts to enhance its drone warfare capacity.

5. REPORT OF INJURED EX-PRISONER SOLDIER SENT TO FRONT (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

*  *МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники* (17:58 UTC) reports on an injured former prisoner, Ilya Arnold, allegedly sent back to the front despite being unable to walk. His mother claims conflicting information from military authorities.

*   **Assessment:** This is *UNVERIFIED* but consistent with prior reports of poor treatment and disregard for the welfare of mobilized soldiers, particularly those recruited from prisons. While this has *LOW IMMEDIATE PRIORITY*, it points to *POTENTIAL MORALE PROBLEMS* and *INTERNAL ISSUES* within the Russian military.

6. DRONE THREAT IN SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

*   *Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine* (18:04 UTC) reports a threat of attack drones in Sumy Oblast.
*   **Assessment:** This is *CONSISTENT* with the reported Russian attacks in the region and the ongoing drone threat across Ukraine. *ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE*: Air defense systems in Sumy Oblast should be at *HIGH ALERT*.

7. RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN "ANDREEVSKY POCKET" (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

*    *Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны* (18:19 UTC) reports significant Russian advances near Kurakhovo, claiming control of Zelenovka, southern Urakly, and advances towards Konstantinopol.  Claims Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Dachnoe.
*    **Assessment:** This *REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION*.  Claims of significant territorial gains are *COMMON* in Russian reports, but the specific details and the reference to an "Andreevsky Pocket" suggest a *POTENTIAL MAJOR SHIFT* in the tactical situation in this area. *IMMEDIATE CROSS-REFERENCING* with other intelligence sources is *ESSENTIAL*.

8. US TO HOST MACRON AND STARMER FOR TALKS ON UKRAINE (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

 *  *ТАСС* (18:17 UTC) reports that the US will host French President Macron and UK opposition leader Starmer next week to discuss the Ukraine conflict.
 *   **Assessment:**  This indicates continued *HIGH-LEVEL DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT* on the Ukraine conflict. It is *NOTABLE* that Starmer, the opposition leader, is included, suggesting preparations for potential future changes in UK policy.

9. WHITE HOUSE STATES TRUMP WILL NOT TOLERATE ZELENSKY'S RHETORIC (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

*  *ТАСС* (18:08 UTC) and *Alex Parker Returns* (18:17 UTC) report the White House saying Trump will not tolerate Zelensky's rhetoric.  A Trump advisor reportedly stated the US deserves a return on its investment in Ukraine.
*   **Assessment:** This highlights the *INCREASING TENSION* between the *TRUMP ADMINISTRATION* and the *ZELENSKY GOVERNMENT*. The statement about a "return on investment" is *SIGNIFICANT* and suggests a *TRANSACTIONAL APPROACH* to US support for Ukraine. This has *MAJOR IMPLICATIONS* for future aid and support.

10. UKRAINIAN OFFICIAL (STEFANISHYNA) ON EU AID AND GERMAN ELECTIONS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): * РБК-Україна (18:18 UTC) reports Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Stefanishyna stating that no major decisions on EU aid to Ukraine are expected until after the German elections. * Assessment: This CONFIRMS the DELAY in EU AID to Ukraine due to political considerations in Germany. This INCREASES THE URGENCY of securing other sources of support.

11. DRONE GROUPS ENTERING SUMY OBLAST FROM KURSK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:17 UTC) reports new groups of attack drones entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, heading towards Chernihiv Oblast.
    • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. The MULTIPLE DRONE GROUPS from DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS suggest a COORDINATED ATTACK and INCREASED THREAT to both SUMY and CHERNIHIV OBLASTS. ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE: Air defense systems in both regions should be at MAXIMUM ALERT.

12. DRONE GROUPS FROM BLACK SEA TOWARDS ODESA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:24 UTC) reports groups of attack drones from the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast.

• Assessment: This is ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE. Air defense systems should be activated.

13. LITHUANIAN PRESIDENT'S PLAN FOR UKRAINE SUPPORT (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (18:22 UTC) reports on Lithuanian President Nausėda's plan, including real security guarantees (NATO membership), accountability for Russia, weapons financing, frozen asset seizure, and accelerated EU accession.
    • Assessment: This represents continued STRONG SUPPORT for Ukraine from Lithuania, but it is UNLIKELY to have an IMMEDIATE IMPACT on the military situation. The call for NATO membership and frozen asset seizure are LONG-TERM GOALS.

14. UKRAINIAN OFFICIAL (STEFANISHYNA) ON RISK OF SANCTIONS RELIEF (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• РБК-Україна (18:20 UTC) reports Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Stefanishyna stating that there is no risk of reversing sanctions on Russia, as most assets are frozen in the EU.
• Assessment: This is a REASSURANCE to the Ukrainian public and international partners. While it is TRUE that most assets are frozen in the EU, this does NOT completely eliminate the risk of future sanctions relief as part of a negotiated settlement.

15. REPORTED PLAN FOR EU PEACEKEEPERS IN UKRAINE (The Times, MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
    • РБК-Україна (18:13) reports on The Times's article about a plan to deploy up to 30,000 EU peacekeepers in key cities, ports, and critical infrastructure, but NOT in eastern Ukraine. Includes border monitoring, air defense, and US air support from Poland and Romania.
    • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT and POTENTIALLY CONTROVERSIAL proposal. The LIMITATION to exclude eastern Ukraine suggests this would be a POST-CONFLICT peacekeeping force, NOT an intervention force. The reliance on US air support highlights the CRITICAL ROLE of the US in any such plan. This REQUIRES CAREFUL MONITORING and FURTHER INFORMATION to assess its feasibility and potential impact.

Updated Situation Summary

• DRONE ATTACKS INTENSIFY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): MULTIPLE DRONE GROUPS are targeting SUMY, CHERNIHIV, and ODESA OBLASTS from MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS. This indicates a COORDINATED ATTACK and a MAJOR THREAT.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES REPORTED (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Claims of significant Russian advances near KURAKHOVO ("Andreevsky Pocket") and in the SUMY REGION require IMMEDIATE CONFIRMATION.
• INCREASING US-UKRAINE TENSIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of the White House stating Trump will not tolerate Zelensky's rhetoric and a Trump advisor demanding a "return on investment" from Ukraine.
• EU AID DELAYED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian officials confirm no major decisions on EU aid are expected until after the German elections.
• REPORTED PLAN FOR EU PEACEKEEPERS IN UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): The proposal for a post-conflict peacekeeping force is SIGNIFICANT, but its feasibility and impact are UNCLEAR.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. MAXIMIZE AIR DEFENSE READINESS AND RESPONSE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Activate all available air defense systems in SUMY, CHERNIHIV, and ODESA OBLASTS.
   • Prioritize intercepting incoming drones.
   • Ensure constant communication with air defense units and provide updated threat information.
   • Issue public warnings and advise residents to seek shelter.

2. URGENTLY VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claims of Russian advances near KURAKHOVO and in the SUMY REGION.
   • Assess the impact of any confirmed advances on Ukrainian defensive positions and operational capabilities.
   • Prepare for potential counter-offensive actions if necessary.

3. ADDRESS US-UKRAINE TENSIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, DIPLOMATIC ACTION):

   • Initiate high-level diplomatic engagement with the US administration to CLARIFY the statements about a "return on investment" and REASSERT the importance of continued US support.
   • Emphasize Ukraine's commitment to transparency and accountability in the use of US aid.
   • Explore alternative sources of support in case of any reduction in US assistance.

4. MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS REGARDING EU PEACEKEEPERS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Gather further information on the reported plan for EU peacekeepers, including its feasibility, timeline, and potential mandate.
   • Assess the implications for Ukrainian sovereignty and security.
   • Engage in discussions with EU partners to clarify the details and ensure Ukrainian interests are protected.

5. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The INTENSIFIED DRONE ATTACKS pose an IMMEDIATE THREAT across multiple regions. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES require URGENT VERIFICATION. The INCREASING TENSIONS with the US are a MAJOR CONCERN. IMMEDIATE ACTION is required to protect civilians, counter threats, and maintain international support.