Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 19, 2025, 10:25 UTC

Changes and New Information (09:56 UTC - 10:25 UTC)

1. POTENTIAL PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Kotsnews (09:56 UTC) reports that a meeting between Putin and Trump may occur before the end of February, citing the Kremlin press service.
   • Colonelcassad (10:03) quotes Peskov stating that the preparation for a Putin-Trump meeting will take time, and the negotiator from the US side will determine Russia's choice. Confirms talks are about US-Russia relations first, then Ukraine. First step taken, too early for conclusions, but positive attitude.
   • Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT if confirmed. A direct meeting between Putin and Trump, even if Trump is not currently in office, would have SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS for the conflict and international relations. It is CRUCIAL to determine the VERACITY of this report and, if confirmed, the AGENDA and POTENTIAL OUTCOMES of such a meeting. The emphasis on US-Russia relations BEFORE Ukraine is NOTEWORTHY.

2. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF HEIGHTS AROUND CHASIV YAR CAPTURED (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • ТАСС (10:19 UTC) reports that Russian forces have taken control of all heights around Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), citing an advisor to the head of the DPR.
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION from Ukrainian sources and independent media. If confirmed, this represents a SIGNIFICANT ADVANCE for Russian forces, potentially giving them a STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE in the area and INCREASING PRESSURE on Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar. This would have MAJOR IMPLICATIONS for the battle in this sector.

3. ZELENSKY'S DETERIORATING POSITION, POTENTIAL PROVOCATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Басурин о главном (09:59 UTC) claims Zelensky's rating is collapsing and suggests he may resort to provocations or terrorist attacks to disrupt negotiations and blame Russia. Cites Medvedev.
   • Assessment: This is RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA, but it highlights a POTENTIAL RISK. A desperate Zelensky, facing declining support and potential negotiations that could sideline him, COULD potentially resort to drastic measures to maintain relevance or influence the situation. This REQUIRES CAREFUL MONITORING, although it should not be taken at face value.

4. UKRAINIAN FORCES PUSHED BACK NEAR MALYNIVKA, AND OTHER LOCATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (10:05) reports that Ukrainian forces have pushed back Russian forces near Malynivka. Russian forces have taken Dachne, Zelenivka. Russian forces have advanced near Kostyantynopol, Novosilka, Klishchiivka, Baranivka, Novoekonomichne, Andriivka, and Pischane.
   • Assessment: Confirms continued intense fighting on multiple fronts.

5. UKRAINIAN FORCES PUSHED BACK FROM HIGHWAY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (10:05) reports that the 6th BCP 12th BRS "Azov" pushed Russian forces back from the highway near Pokrovsk-Konstantinivka.
   • Assessment: Confirms a continued Ukrainian defense.

6. UKRAINIAN FORCES REPORT FIGHTING IN KHARKOV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (10:17) reports that the situation is difficult but under control. Fighting near Mala Shapkovka, Topoli. Russian airstrikes are confirmed. 50 casualties are claimed.
• Assessment: Confirms continued fighting, but the report is very vague on detail.

7. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN GRAD ATTACK ON BRYANSK OBLAST, DRONE ATTACKS ACROSS RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Военкор Котенок (10:00) reports a Ukrainian Grad attack on the Novye Yurkovichi customs post in the Klimovsky district of Bryansk Oblast, Russia. Claims injuries to several employees. Also reports 11 drones shot down overnight (4 over Black Sea, 3 over Bryansk, 2 over Belgorod, 1 over Tula, 1 over Tatarstan).
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, the attack on a customs post in Russia represents an ESCALATION. The reported drone attacks are consistent with ongoing drone warfare.

Updated Situation Summary

• POTENTIAL PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): This is the MOST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
• RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF HEIGHTS AROUND CHASIV YAR CAPTURED (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): This is POTENTIALLY A MAJOR DEVELOPMENT if confirmed.
• CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian and Russian reports confirm ongoing clashes.
• UKRAINIAN FORCES PUSHED BACK NEAR MALYNIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Confirms continued Ukrainian defense.
• UKRAINIAN FORCES PUSHED BACK FROM HIGHWAY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Confirms continued Ukrainian defense.
• UKRAINIAN FORCES REPORT FIGHTING IN KHARKOV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Confirms continued fighting,
• UKRAINIAN GRAD ATTACK ON BRYANSK OBLAST, DRONE ATTACKS ACROSS RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):
• CLAIMED RUSSIAN TAKEOVER OF SVERDLYKOVE IN RUSSIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): All previous information and assessments remain relevant. NEW VIDEO of aftermath of fighting.
• CONTINUED AERIAL THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Rocket alert in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast confirms ongoing threat (resolved now).
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY REPORT OF PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported potential meeting between Putin and Trump.
   • Determine the agenda, timing, and location if the meeting is confirmed.
   • Assess the potential implications for the conflict and US-Ukraine relations.
   • Prepare for potential shifts in US policy or negotiating positions.

2. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF HEIGHTS AROUND CHASIV YAR CAPTURED (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported Russian capture of heights around Chasiv Yar.
   • Assess the impact on Ukrainian defensive positions in the area if confirmed.
   • Prepare for potential Ukrainian counter-attacks or adjustments to defensive lines.

3. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN GRAD ATTACK AND DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported Ukrainian Grad attack on the customs post in Bryansk Oblast, Russia.
   • Assess the extent of the damage and casualties if confirmed.
   • Verify the reported drone attacks across Russia.
   • Prepare for potential escalations or retaliatory actions.

4. MAINTAIN VIGILANCE FOR UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Monitor reports from ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 and other channels.
   • Monitor reports from ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦.

5. MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL ZELENSKY PROVOCATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • While acknowledging the Russian propaganda source, MAINTAIN AWARENESS of the POTENTIAL for Zelensky to take drastic actions to influence negotiations or maintain relevance.
   • Increase surveillance of potential targets and MONITOR Ukrainian military communications for any signs of unusual activity.

6. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The POTENTIAL PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING and the CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES AROUND CHASIV YAR are the MOST IMMEDIATE AND SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS, requiring URGENT VERIFICATION. The continued fighting on multiple fronts, the potential for escalation, and the ongoing information warfare highlight the complexity of the conflict. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED ACTION are essential.