Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 15:12 UTC
Changes and New Information (14:43 UTC - 15:12 UTC)
MISSILE ALERTS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (14:46 UTC) reports a missile threat in Chernihiv Oblast.
Оперативний ЗСУ (14:46 UTC) reports a missile threat in Poltava and Kharkiv Oblasts.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (14:58 UTC) reports missile threat in Kyiv Oblast.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (14:49) reports a high-speed target east of Chernihiv Oblast moving west.
Николаевский Ванёк (14:50) Reports a guided air missile north of Konotop.
Николаевский Ванёк (15:00) Reports the missile was shot down.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (14:53 UTC) reports the missile continues to move through the Chernihiv region, in the direction of Chernihiv.
Оперативний ЗСУ (15:51) reports a high speed target is heading east.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (14:55) Reports that Chernihiv should find shelter.
Николаевский Ванёк (14:55) Reports it might be loud in Chernihiv.
Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, indicating a NEW WAVE OF RUSSIAN MISSILE STRIKES targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS. The focus on CHERNIHIV, POLTAVA, KHARKIV, AND KYIV OBLASTS suggests POTENTIAL TARGETING OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE OR MILITARY ASSETS.
TASS (14:52 UTC) reports, citing Vladimir Rogov, that Russian forces have cleared Novoselka near the border of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
Assessment: This is a POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ADVANCE, if confirmed. It requires IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION using independent sources. The location near multiple regional borders suggests STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE for control of territory and potentially disrupting Ukrainian supply lines.
RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK IN DONETSK OBLAST (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
MoD Russia (14:45 UTC) posts a video claiming Russian forces used FPV drones with fiber optic cables to destroy Ukrainian pickup trucks in the Donetsk People's Republic.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN USE OF FPV DRONES in the DONETSK REGION. The claimed use of FIBER OPTIC CABLES is significant, as it suggests EFFORTS TO COUNTER ELECTRONIC WARFARE and IMPROVE DRONE CONTROL AND ACCURACY.
RUSSIAN FLAG RAISED IN VELETENSKOE, KHERSON OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (14:50 UTC) posts a video claiming Russian forces raised a flag in Veletenskoe, Kherson Oblast, describing it as a symbol of liberation from Kyiv's influence.
Assessment: This requires VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it would indicate RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KHERSON REGION, suggesting a SHIFT IN THE FRONTLINE. The propaganda framing of "liberation" is typical Russian messaging.
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL VISIT TO SAUDI ARABIA POSTPONED (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Оперативний ЗСУ (14:48 UTC) reports Zelensky will not travel to Saudi Arabia tomorrow, postponing the visit to March 10th.
ASTRA (15:10 UTC) also confirms the postponement, citing Reuters.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (14:56 UTC) states that the Saudi Arabia meeting was a "surprise" for Zelensky and Ukraine was not invited.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE POSTPONEMENT of Zelensky's visit and HIGHLIGHTS THE LACK OF UKRAINIAN INVOLVEMENT in the US-RUSSIA TALKS in Saudi Arabia. Zelensky's statement that it was a "surprise" underscores the CONCERN ABOUT BEING SIDELINED IN NEGOTIATIONS.
RUSSIAN ASSAULT GROUP DESTROYS UKRAINIAN FORCES NEAR BELOHORIVKA (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Сливочный каприз (14:47) reports Russian forces attacked the Ukrainian army and detonated a tank.
Assessment: This suggests potentially successful Russian military operations.
KELLOGG TO VISIT KYIV TONIGHT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Оперативний ЗСУ (15:11 UTC), citing Reuters, reports that Donald Trump's special envoy, Keith Kellogg, will travel to Kyiv tonight.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS KELLOGG'S IMMINENT ARRIVAL, underscoring the URGENCY OF THE SITUATION and the DIRECT ENGAGEMENT BETWEEN THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AND UKRAINE.
RUSSIA AND USA AGREE TO RESUME COMMUNICATION CHANNELS (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
TASS (15:12 UTC) reports that Russia and the USA agreed to resume communication channels, as nuclear powers.
* Assessment: This CONFIRMS the INTENSIFICATION OF DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS, and a return to standard channels of communication.
RUSSIA AND USA AGREE ON ECONOMIC COOPERATION (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
*TASS* (15:07) reports that Russia and the USA agreed on a new dialogue on economic cooperation.
Assessment: This shows potential economic incentives for Russia and the USA to end the war.
UKRAINE WAS NOT INVITED TO NEGOTIATIONS (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
* Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (15:04 UTC) reports that the USA and Russia did not want Zelensky at the negotiations.
* Assessment: This reinforces the prior reports.
Updated Situation Summary
NEW WAVE OF RUSSIAN MISSILE STRIKES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Missile alerts across MULTIPLE REGIONS indicate a MAJOR ESCALATION in Russian attacks. CHERNIHIV, POLTAVA, KHARKIV, AND KYIV OBLASTS are under IMMEDIATE THREAT.
REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Claims of Russian forces capturing NOVOSELKA and raising a flag in VELETENSKOE need IMMEDIATE CONFIRMATION.
KELLOGG'S VISIT TO KYIV TONIGHT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): This highlights the URGENCY OF THE SITUATION and the DIRECT ENGAGEMENT between the Trump administration and Ukraine.
UKRAINE SIDELINED IN US-RUSSIA TALKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Zelensky's postponement of his Saudi Arabia visit and statements about being "surprised" underscore the LACK OF UKRAINIAN INVOLVEMENT and the POTENTIAL FOR AGREEMENTS BEING MADE WITHOUT THEIR INPUT.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports of Russian FPV drone strikes with fiber optic cables indicate ADVANCED CAPABILITIES and EFFORTS TO COUNTER ELECTRONIC WARFARE.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The situation remains extremely dangerous and fluid.
Updated Recommendations
IMMEDIATE RESPONSE TO MISSILE THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain high alert for air defense systems across ALL THREATENED REGIONS (Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Kyiv).
Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and population centers.
Issue public warnings and ensure shelters are accessible.
Gather intelligence on the types of missiles used and their likely targets.
Gather intelligence on all aspects of the ongoing talks, even after the Russian delegation's departure from Riyadh.
Assess the implications for Ukraine's security and future.
Coordinate with allies to ensure a unified response and prevent any agreements that undermine Ukraine's interests.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation is EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The NEW WAVE OF RUSSIAN MISSILE STRIKES, REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, KELLOGG'S IMMINENT VISIT, and the CONFIRMED LACK OF UKRAINIAN INVOLVEMENT IN US-RUSSIA TALKS create a HIGHLY VOLATILE AND DANGEROUS environment. IMMEDIATE ACTION is required to address the missile threats, verify Russian claims, and prepare for Kellogg's visit. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED ACTION are essential.
