Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 14:12 UTC
Changes and New Information (13:43 UTC - 14:12 UTC)
PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING UNCERTAIN, BUT AIMED FOR (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
TASS (13:43 UTC) reports Mike Waltz (US National Security Advisor) stating that there are no dates set for a Putin-Trump meeting, but both sides are aiming for it.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS ongoing HIGH-LEVEL CONTACT between the US (under a potential Trump administration) and Russia, with the POTENTIAL FOR A DIRECT MEETING between the leaders. This underscores the SHIFT IN US POLICY and the INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF NEGOTIATIONS that could significantly impact Ukraine.
TASS provides extensive coverage (multiple reports) of Lavrov's press conference following the US-Russia talks in Riyadh. Key takeaways:
Ambassadors to be appointed "as soon as possible" in Washington and Moscow (13:43 UTC).
US "better understands" Russia's position (13:45 UTC).
Deputy heads of diplomatic departments will meet (13:46 UTC).
Interest in restoring consultations on geopolitical issues and economic cooperation (13:48 UTC).
US will designate a representative for Ukraine settlement, Russia will follow suit (13:48 UTC).
Rubio emphasized the importance of national interests (13:49 UTC).
Agreement to "once and for all" resolve issues with diplomatic mission functioning (13:50 UTC).
US claims the reported three-stage peace plan is "fake" (13:52 UTC).
Russia explained that NATO's absorption of Ukraine is a direct threat (13:54 UTC).
US proposed a moratorium on attacks on energy infrastructure (13:55 UTC). Russia claims it never endangered Ukraine's energy system (13:58 UTC, 14:00 UTC). ASTRA disputes this, citing MoD reports (14:01 UTC).
Russia felt "determination to move forward" from the US, and Moscow is similarly inclined (13:58 UTC).
Russia and US will try to create conditions for full cooperation (13:59 UTC).
Mutual understanding does not mean convergence of positions (14:07 UTC)
Assessment: Lavrov's statements paint a picture of PRODUCTIVE ENGAGEMENT with the US, focused on RESTORING DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS, ADDRESSING KEY DISAGREEMENTS (particularly NATO expansion), and EXPLORING AVENUES FOR COOPERATION. The emphasis on national interests, combined with the US proposal for an energy infrastructure moratorium, suggests a REALPOLITIK APPROACH focused on pragmatic outcomes rather than ideological alignment. The DISMISSAL OF THE THREE-STAGE PEACE PLAN as "fake" by both sides is significant, but the CONTINUED ENGAGEMENT and PLANNED FOLLOW-UP MEETINGS indicate that NEGOTIATIONS ARE VERY MUCH ALIVE. The conflicting statements regarding attacks on energy infrastructure highlight the INFORMATION WARFARE aspect of the conflict.
UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE ON RUSSIAN CONVOY (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (14:04 UTC) posts a video showing a Ukrainian drone striking a Russian vehicle traveling in a convoy. The caption describes it as one of many "roads of death" for Russian equipment.
Assessment: This DEMONSTRATES UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES in PRECISION STRIKES and DISRUPTING RUSSIAN LOGISTICS. It highlights the VULNERABILITY OF RUSSIAN VEHICLES to drone attacks, particularly in open terrain.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (14:11 UTC) reports launches of guided bombs by Russian tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast.
Assessment: This shows continued targeting in the region.
Updated Situation Summary
US-RUSSIA ENGAGEMENT: INTENSIFYING DIPLOMACY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Lavrov's press conference CONFIRMS the INTENSIFICATION OF DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS between the US and Russia. While a Putin-Trump meeting is not yet scheduled, the AIM FOR SUCH A MEETING and the PLANNED FOLLOW-UP DISCUSSIONS at lower levels indicate a SERIOUS COMMITMENT TO NEGOTIATIONS.
KEY NEGOTIATING POINTS: NATO, ENERGY, DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The talks focused on CORE ISSUES: Russia's opposition to NATO expansion, a proposed moratorium on attacks on energy infrastructure, and the restoration of diplomatic relations. The DISAGREEMENT OVER ENERGY ATTACKS highlights the INFORMATION WARFARE dimension.
UKRAINIAN PERSPECTIVE: INCREASING PRESSURE, LIMITED INFLUENCE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The US-Russia talks are proceeding LARGELY WITHOUT UKRAINIAN INVOLVEMENT, despite the direct impact on Ukraine's future. The DISMISSAL OF THE THREE-STAGE PEACE PLAN provides some relief, but the OVERALL TRAJECTORY points towards a NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT that may not fully align with Ukraine's interests.
UKRAINIAN DRONE WARFARE: CONTINUED SUCCESS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The successful drone strike on a Russian convoy demonstrates UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES in DISRUPTING RUSSIAN LOGISTICS and INFLICTING CASUALTIES.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR OPERATIONS: GUIDED BOMB THREAT IN DONETSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED).
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The situation remains extremely dangerous and fluid.
Updated Recommendations
PREPARE FOR KELLOGG VISIT: URGENT COORDINATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain all preparations. The urgency is EVEN HIGHER given the intensified US-Russia dialogue.
Gather further intelligence on the specific outcomes of the Riyadh talks and any implications for Kellogg's mission.
Develop a clear strategy for engaging with Kellogg, emphasizing Ukraine's core interests and red lines.
Coordinate closely with European allies to ensure a unified front and avoid being sidelined.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):
Maintain readiness in DONETSK OBLAST, due to continued threat of guided bombs.
Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and population centers.
Prepare for potential strikes.
ENHANCE COUNTER-DRONE CAPABILITIES AND LOGISTICS PROTECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Continue to develop and deploy counter-drone systems and tactics.
Implement measures to protect logistical convoys and supply routes from drone attacks. This could include CAMOUFLAGE, DISPERSAL, AND ELECTRONIC WARFARE.
Share intelligence and best practices with allies.
ADDRESS POTENTIAL FOR CONCESSIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS):
Publicly reiterate Ukraine's position on territorial integrity and sovereignty, particularly in light of Lavrov's statements.
Engage in diplomatic efforts to COUNTER ANY NARRATIVE that suggests Ukraine should make unilateral concessions.
Seek continued international support for Ukraine's position.
Gather intelligence on all aspects of the ongoing talks, including the planned meetings of deputy diplomatic heads.
Assess the implications for Ukraine's security and future.
Coordinate with allies to ensure a unified response and prevent any agreements that undermine Ukraine's interests.
COUNTER RUSSIAN INFORMATION WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Proactively address Russian claims regarding energy infrastructure attacks, providing evidence of Russian targeting of civilian infrastructure.
Highlight Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts.
Promote accurate information about the situation on the ground and Ukraine's position.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation is EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The INTENSIFIED US-RUSSIA DIALOGUE, KELLOGG'S IMMINENT VISIT, and the CONTINUED MILITARY ACTIVITY create a HIGHLY VOLATILE AND UNPREDICTABLE environment. PREPARING FOR THE MEETING WITH KELLOGG, MAINTAINING A UNIFIED POSITION WITH ALLIES, COUNTERING RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION, and MAINTAINING MILITARY READINESS are the MOST URGENT PRIORITIES. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED ACTION remain essential. The LACK OF DIRECT UKRAINIAN INVOLVEMENT in the US-Russia talks is a MAJOR CONCERN.
