Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 10:12 UTC
Changes and New Information (09:43 UTC - 10:12 UTC)
POTENTIAL FRENCH TROOP DEPLOYMENT TO UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):
Дневник Десантника (09:43 UTC) claims France is proposing to deploy its forces to Ukraine, not just along the front lines but throughout the country. Claims this is for "EU security" and that France, the UK, and Poland are ready to deploy.
Assessment: This is an EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT CLAIM and REQUIRES URGENT AND THOROUGH VERIFICATION. If true, this would represent a MAJOR ESCALATION of the conflict and direct NATO involvement. Prioritize verifying this information through official French, UK, and Polish government sources, NATO channels, and independent media. Assess the credibility of Дневник Десантника as a source. This could be disinformation.
DONETSK WATER PIPE BURST, LOCAL CONTRADICTS OFFICIAL REPORT (LOW PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Mash на Донбассе (09:43 UTC) reports that a burst water pipe on Ostrovsky Street in Donetsk, previously claimed to be fixed by Pushilin, is STILL A PROBLEM. Local residents report icy conditions and impassable roads, hindering emergency services.
Assessment: This is primarily a CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUE, but it HIGHLIGHTS VULNERABILITIES in occupied areas and POTENTIAL DISCREPANCIES between official reports and reality. The impact on emergency services is the MOST SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.
UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS IN KURSK REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (09:43 UTC) posts a video claiming to show Ukrainian forces from the 3rd Battalion, 47th Brigade, operating a Mavic drone in the Kursk region. The caption thanks donors for funding the drone.
Assessment: This SUPPORTS PREVIOUS REPORTS of Ukrainian drone activity in the Kursk region. It is CONSISTENT with Ukraine's strategy of using drones for reconnaissance and potentially attacks inside Russia. Needs verification to confirm the location and authenticity of the video.
MURMANSK REGION FUNDS FOR MILITARY RECRUITMENT (LOW PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники (09:44 UTC) reports that the Murmansk region governor allocated 51 million rubles for "premiums" to local governments "for assisting with tasks assigned to the Russian Armed Forces in 2024." The specific criteria are unclear.
Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED EFFORTS TO SUPPORT MILITARY RECRUITMENT and mobilization in Russia. The lack of transparency raises concerns about potential corruption or misuse of funds.
US-RUSSIA TALKS IN RIYADH CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):
ТАСС (09:46 UTC) reports that US-Russia talks in Riyadh have been ongoing for over two hours. Maria Zakharova later announced a short break (09:59 UTC). Lavrov is expected to speak to the press afterward (10:01 UTC).
Assessment: The talks are CONFIRMED and ONGOING. The length of the talks suggests SUBSTANTIVE DISCUSSIONS. Monitor Lavrov's statement closely for any indications of progress, sticking points, or outcomes. RBC-Ukraine (09:59) reports on the talks quoting a participant.
DNIPROPETROVSK REGION ART THERAPY FOR VETERANS (LOW PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (09:46 UTC) posts a video showing art therapy sessions for veterans in the Dnipropetrovsk region, emphasizing support and rehabilitation.
Assessment: This highlights EFFORTS TO ADDRESS THE PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT OF WAR on soldiers and promote veteran reintegration.
RUSSIAN COMMENTARY ON POTENTIAL ARCTIC COOPERATION WITH US (LOW PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Рыбарь (09:47 UTC) mentions comments by Kirill Dmitriev about potential US-Russia economic cooperation in the Arctic, emphasizing the region's mineral resources.
Assessment: This reflects RUSSIAN INTEREST IN ECONOMIC COOPERATION with the US, even amidst the conflict. The Arctic is a strategically important region for both countries.
ТАСС (09:47 UTC) reports claims from the Russian Ministry of Defense regarding Ukrainian losses:
Over 295 casualties, a tank, and six armored vehicles in the "Center" group of forces area.
14 HIMARS rockets and 73 drones shot down by air defenses.
Up to 175 casualties in the "East" group of forces area.
Up to 95 casualties in the "North" and "Dnipro" group of forces areas.
Assessment:Treat these figures with skepticism and SEEK INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. These claims are likely inflated for propaganda purposes.
CLAIM OF IMPROVED NORTH KOREAN KN-23 ROCKET ACCURACY (HIGH PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):
РБК-Україна (09:49 UTC), citing Budanov, claims that North Korean KN-23 missiles supplied to Russia have been MODIFIED BY RUSSIAN SPECIALISTS to improve their accuracy.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT CLAIM and REQUIRES THOROUGH INVESTIGATION. If true, it represents an INCREASED THREAT from these missiles. Prioritize gathering intelligence to VERIFY this claim and ASSESS the extent of the modifications.
EU SANCTIONS TO REMAIN REGARDLESS OF US ACTION (LOW PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Оперативний ЗСУ (09:50 UTC) reports that the European Commission stated EU sanctions against Russia will remain in place even if the US lifts its sanctions.
Colonelcassad (09:53 UTC) reports on claimed Russian advances in multiple locations over the last 24 hours, including:
Progress near Chasiv Yar.
Continued clearing of Ulakly.
Expanded control near Figolevka and Dvorechnoye.
"Liberation" of Yampolovka.
Advances in Petrovka.
"Complete" expulsion of Ukrainian forces from Peschanoye.
Advances near Novy Komar.
Assessment: These are claims and should be treated with caution. Requires verification.
LIPETSK REGION VETERAN SUPPORT (LOW PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Игорь Артамонов (09:54 UTC) posts a video of a meeting with veterans in the Lipetsk region, discussing support and reintegration programs.
Assessment: This highlights RUSSIAN EFFORTS TO SUPPORT VETERANS and integrate them back into society.
UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE ON RUSSIAN TANK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, VIDEO EVIDENCE):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (10:07 UTC) reports the same incident.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KRASNOARMEISK-USPENOVKA AREA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Сливочный каприз (10:08 UTC) reports Russian attacks in the southern part of Uspenovka, with claimed expansion of control by 500 meters.
Assessment: Needs verification.
RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE IN SUMY OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (10:08 UTC) posts a video claiming to show an FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian minibus in the Sumy region.
Assessment: Needs verification.
DNIPROPETROVSK REGION AIR DEFENSE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (10:09 UTC) reports the downing of a reconnaissance drone over the Dnipropetrovsk region by air defense forces.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE ACTIVITY and UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE EFFORTS.
RUSSIA TERMINATES NAVIGATION AGREEMENT WITH UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):
ASTRA (10:09 UTC) reports that Russia has terminated its agreement with Ukraine on safety of navigation in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT and represents a FURTHER ESCALATION OF TENSIONS in the maritime domain. It REMOVES A KEY FRAMEWORK FOR COOPERATION and INCREASES THE RISK OF INCIDENTS at sea.
POTENTIAL LARGE EU AID PACKAGE FOR UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REPORTED):
STERNENKO (10:10 UTC), citing Berliner Zeitung and German Foreign Minister Baerbock, reports that EU countries are working on a MAJOR NEW AID PACKAGE for Ukraine, potentially amounting to 700 BILLION EUROS. The announcement is reportedly delayed until after the German elections on February 23rd.
Assessment: This is a POTENTIALLY HUGE DEVELOPMENT. If confirmed, this would represent a MASSIVE INCREASE IN FINANCIAL SUPPORT for Ukraine and a STRONG SIGNAL OF EU COMMITMENT. Prioritize verifying this information through official EU and German government sources and independent media. Assess the credibility of Berliner Zeitung as a source. Alex Parker Returns (10:06 UTC) supports this report.
Updated Situation Summary
POTENTIAL FRENCH TROOP DEPLOYMENT TO UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): This is the MOST SIGNIFICANT NEW DEVELOPMENT and requires IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION.
RUSSIAN FORCES CAPTURE YAMPOLIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): This represents a significant Russian advance on the Krasnolimansk direction, weakening the Ukrainian defensive line.
RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE OFFENSIVE IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Multiple sources report continued Russian advances, including the claimed destruction of a key bridge. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
POTENTIAL MAJOR EU AID PACKAGE FOR UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Report of a potential 700 billion euro aid package. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
CLAIM OF IMPROVED NORTH KOREAN KN-23 ROCKET ACCURACY (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of Russian modifications to improve accuracy. URGENT INVESTIGATION NEEDED.
RUSSIA TERMINATES NAVIGATION AGREEMENT WITH UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Significant escalation of tensions in the maritime domain.
CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports of Ukrainian drone operations in the Kursk region and Russian drone strikes in the Sumy region.
ZAPORIZHZHIA FACING CONTINUED ATTACKS AND HUMANITARIAN CHALLENGES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Situation remains unchanged.
VERIFY POTENTIAL FRENCH TROOP DEPLOYMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Contact official French, UK, and Polish government sources and NATO channels to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claimed deployment.
Deploy intelligence assets to MONITOR for any signs of troop movements or preparations consistent with such a deployment.
Assess the potential impact of such a deployment on the conflict and PREPARE CONTINGENCY PLANS for various scenarios.
CONFIRM RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND BRIDGE DESTRUCTION IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect.
REINFORCE DEFENSES AROUND YAMPOLIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect.
VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF STRIKES ON UKRAINIAN MILITARY AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect.
CONTINUE MONITORING US-RUSSIA TALKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS): All previous recommendations remain in effect.
DISCREDIT THE REPORT OF A US ULTIMATUM IF UNFOUNDED (EXTREME PRIORITY)
Await Lavrov's statement and ANALYZE it for any indications of outcomes or agreements.
ADDRESS HUMANITARIAN SITUATION IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations remain in effect.
VERIFY REPORTED EU AID PACKAGE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect.
Contact official EU and German government sources to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported 700 billion euro aid package.
* Assess the credibility of Berliner Zeitung as a source.
* Obtain details on the proposed package, including its purpose, timeline, and conditions.
INVESTIGATE CLAIM OF IMPROVED NORTH KOREAN KN-23 ROCKET ACCURACY (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy intelligence assets to VERIFY the claim that Russian specialists have modified North Korean KN-23 missiles to improve their accuracy.
Assess the extent of the modifications and their IMPACT on the missile's performance and threat level.
Develop countermeasures if the claim is confirmed.
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE IN SUMY REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Gather evidence from various sources.
ASSESS IMPACT OF RUSSIA TERMINATING NAVIGATION AGREEMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Analyze the legal and practical implications of Russia terminating the agreement on navigation in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait.
Assess the potential impact on Ukrainian maritime access and freedom of navigation.
Prepare for potential incidents at sea and DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The POTENTIAL FRENCH TROOP DEPLOYMENT, the CAPTURE OF YAMPOLIVKA, the CONTINUED OFFENSIVE IN THE POKROVSK DIRECTION, the US-RUSSIA TALKS, and the POTENTIAL EU AID PACKAGE are the MOST IMMEDIATE AND CRITICAL CONCERNS. The CLAIM OF IMPROVED KN-23 ACCURACY and the TERMINATION OF THE NAVIGATION AGREEMENT are also HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT developments. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED ACTION are essential.
