Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 05:42 UTC
Changes and New Information (05:13 UTC - 05:42 UTC)
OIL OBJECT ATTACKS IN RUSSIA (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
RBC-Ukraine, citing the Russian publication Astra, reports that 16 oil facilities in ten regions of Russia have been attacked in 2025, including an attack on the "Yuttek" oil depot in Prokhorovka, Belgorod Oblast, last Friday.
Assessment: This highlights CONTINUED UKRAINIAN EFFORTS to target RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE, potentially disrupting supply chains and impacting the Russian economy. The increasing frequency and geographic spread of these attacks are NOTABLE.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KURAKHOVO-KONSTANTINOPOL (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Сливочный каприз (05:17 UTC) reports active fighting near Kurakhovo and a Russian tank attack in Konstantino-Pol, with Russian forces advancing up to 2 km westward and occupying new positions in the southern part of the settlement. GPS coordinates provided (47.997366, 37.031602). The report includes a video depicting the alleged attack.
Assessment: This REINFORCES earlier reports of RUSSIAN ADVANCES on the KONSTANTINOPOL DIRECTION. The claimed 2 km advance and occupation of positions in southern Konstantino-Pol, if confirmed, would represent a SIGNIFICANT TACTICAL GAIN for Russian forces. URGENT VERIFICATION is needed. The GPS coordinates should be IMMEDIATELY CROSS-REFERENCED with satellite imagery and other intelligence sources.
RECONNAISSANCE DRONE ACTIVITY IN KHERSON OBLAST (CONFIRMED, BOTH SOURCES):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (05:17 UTC) and РБК-Україна (05:18 UTC) report activity of reconnaissance drones in Kherson Oblast.
Assessment: This indicates HEIGHTENED SURVEILLANCE activity, potentially by BOTH SIDES, in Kherson Oblast. This could precede INCREASED ARTILLERY FIRE or other offensive actions.
DRONE ATTACK ON KHMEIMIM AIR BASE IN SYRIA (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Оперативний ЗСУ (05:19 UTC) reports that drones attacked the Khmeimim airbase in Syria, where Russian forces are stationed. Local media reports air defense activity. Russian bloggers are blaming the "HTS" group, whose leader is the current temporary president of Syria. A video purportedly showing the attack is included.
Assessment: This is NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to the military situation in Ukraine, but it highlights the CONTINUED THREAT to RUSSIAN FORCES in SYRIA and the POTENTIAL FOR DISTRACTION OF RESOURCES. The involvement of the HTS group is NOTABLE and could indicate a SHIFTING DYNAMIC in the Syrian conflict.
RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE IN KIROVOHRAD OBLAST (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
STERNENKO (05:20 UTC) reports that a Russian drone struck an apartment building in Dolinskaya, Kirovohrad Oblast, injuring a woman and her two children.
Assessment: This REINFORCES earlier reports of a RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE on a CIVILIAN TARGET, resulting in CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.
RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK ON KYIV (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (05:20 UTC) reports that Russian forces launched a successful "Geran" drone attack on Kyiv, claiming a breakthrough of air defenses and a "powerful detonation". It is suggested that the target was an air defense object or ammunition depot.
Assessment: Needs to be verified, but it is consistent with the earlier reports.
POTENTIAL TROOP DEPLOYMENT TO UKRAINE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (05:21 UTC) reports that, according to Le Monde, representatives of Germany and Spain are still stating that it's "too early" to discuss sending troops to Ukraine, but the UK has expressed its willingness to deploy a peacekeeping force if necessary. The Spanish Foreign Minister states that sending troops could be discussed when peace is achieved.
Assessment: This indicates a CONTINUED DEBATE within EUROPE about INCREASING MILITARY INVOLVEMENT in Ukraine. The UK's willingness to consider a peacekeeping force is NOTABLE, while the Spanish position reflects a more CAUTIOUS APPROACH.
UKRAINIAN ATTEMPTED ATTACK IN SREBRYANKA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Два майора (05:26 UTC) reports that Ukrainian forces attempted to attack Russian positions in Serebryanoe (Sribne) on the Novopavlovsk direction overnight, using four Bradley IFVs and a group of released prisoners. The attack was repelled, with the remnants of the Ukrainian force retreating to an administrative building and requesting evacuation.
Assessment: This suggests CONTINUED UKRAINIAN ATTEMPTS to CONTEST RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the NOVOPAVLOVSK DIRECTION, albeit with LIMITED SUCCESS. The use of released prisoners, if confirmed, raises questions about UKRAINIAN MANPOWER RESERVES.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR ANDREEVKA AND ULAKLY (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Два майора (05:27 UTC), citing Ukrainian assessments, reports Russian advances on the northeastern and northwestern outskirts of Andreevka and in the western part of Ulakly, with continued attacks towards Konstantino-Pol. Ukrainian counterattacks are reported, but with a "negative trend" for Ukrainian forces.
Assessment: This REINFORCES previous reports of RUSSIAN ADVANCES on the KONSTANTINOPOL DIRECTION and provides further details, suggesting CONTINUED RUSSIAN PRESSURE in this area. The acknowledgment of a "negative trend" by Ukrainian sources adds weight to the claims.
DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST SHELLING AND AIR DEFENSE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (05:30 UTC) reports that two Russian drones were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. The Marganets community in the Nikopol district was shelled with heavy artillery, with no casualties. One injured person from a previous attack in the Chervonogrigorivska community is receiving medical care.
Assessment: This confirms CONTINUED RUSSIAN SHELLING in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST, targeting the NIKOPOL DISTRICT. The downing of two drones indicates ACTIVE UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES.
RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE IN DNIPROPETROVSK REGION (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (05:31 UTC) confirms that 2 Russian drones were destroyed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Олександр Вілкул (05:33:18) states that the situation is under control.
Assessment:CONFIRMATION.
RUSSIAN LOSSES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Оперативний ЗСУ (05:33:21) reports that 1,170 "terrorists" were lost during the last day.
РБК-Україна (05:33:38) confirms the information, adding that 12 tanks, 12 AFVs, 53 artillery pieces, 2 MLRS, and 1 AD system were destroyed.
Assessment: PROPAGANDA.
RUSSIAN HELICOPTER OPERATIONS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (05:34:48) reports active work by a pair of Russian helicopters.
Assessment:CONFIRMATION.
CHECHEN FORCES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Kadyrov_95 (05:37:35) reports that Chechen forces left for the front.
Assessment:CONFIRMATION.
Updated Situation Summary
CONTINUED UKRAINIAN ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Ukrainian sources claim 16 oil facilities in ten regions of Russia have been attacked in 2025, potentially impacting Russian supply chains and economy.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES ON KONSTANTINOPOL DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED): Multiple Russian sources report significant advances, including a claimed 2 km push westward and occupation of positions in southern Konstantino-Pol. URGENT VERIFICATION is needed.
HEIGHTENED RECONNAISSANCE ACTIVITY IN KHERSON OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Both sides report increased drone surveillance, potentially preceding further military action.
DRONE ATTACK ON KHMEIMIM AIR BASE IN SYRIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): While not directly related to Ukraine, this highlights continued threats to Russian forces and potential resource diversion.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES ON CIVILIAN TARGETS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A drone strike in Kirovohrad Oblast injured a woman and her two children, reinforcing the indiscriminate nature of the Russian campaign.
DEBATE ON TROOP DEPLOYMENT TO UKRAINE CONTINUES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): European nations remain divided on increasing military involvement, with the UK expressing potential willingness for a peacekeeping force.
UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS IN NOVOPAVLOVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reported Ukrainian attempts to contest Russian advances appear to have had limited success.
CONTINUED SHELLING IN DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian shelling targets the Nikopol district, while Ukrainian air defenses remain active.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT.
Updated Recommendations
VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCES ON KONSTANTINOPOL DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Utilize all available intelligence assets, including satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, and human intelligence, to CONFIRM the reported Russian advances.
Cross-reference the provided GPS coordinates (47.997366, 37.031602) with available mapping data and imagery.
Assess the impact of these advances on Ukrainian defensive positions and potential future Russian objectives.
Prepare for potential counter-measures to halt or reverse Russian gains.
MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED VIGILANCE IN KHERSON OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Increase monitoring of the area for potential enemy troop movements, artillery preparations, or other offensive actions.
Maintain a high state of readiness for air defenses and ground forces.
Coordinate with intelligence agencies to assess the purpose and potential targets of reconnaissance drone activity.
ADDRESS CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES ON CIVILIAN TARGETS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Continue to document all incidents, including the strike in Kirovohrad Oblast, gathering evidence of civilian casualties and damage.
Provide support to affected civilians, including medical care, evacuation assistance, and temporary housing.
Publicly condemn the attacks and highlight the violation of international humanitarian law.
Reinforce air defenses across the country, prioritizing the protection of civilian population centers.
MONITOR AND COUNTER UKRAINIAN ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Continue to gather intelligence on the scope and impact of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities.
Assess the potential for further attacks and take measures to protect vulnerable infrastructure.
Develop strategies to mitigate the economic and logistical consequences of these attacks.
ENGAGE WITH EUROPEAN ALLIES ON TROOP DEPLOYMENT OPTIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Continue to monitor the debate within Europe about increasing military involvement in Ukraine.
Engage with allies to understand their positions and potential contributions.
Assess the potential implications of different deployment scenarios, including a UK-led peacekeeping force.
COUNTER RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK AND ON THE WESTERN BANK OF THE OSKOL RIVER (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Reinforce defenses near Sudzha, Pohrebky and Kurilovka
Reinforce the bridgehead near Zapadnoye, Dvurechnaya, and Figolevka
Provide evidence to counter the idea that there was a successful penetration.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES on the KONSTANTINOPOL DIRECTION and the CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES on CIVILIAN TARGETS are the MOST URGENT CONCERNS. The HEIGHTENED RECONNAISSANCE ACTIVITY in KHERSON OBLAST suggests a POTENTIAL ESCALATION in that area. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are crucial.
