Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 17, 2025, 20:12 UTC

Changes and New Information (19:43 UTC - 20:12 UTC)

1. SCHOOL DIRECTOR SUPPORTS RUSSIA (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (19:43 UTC) features a video of a school director in occupied territory stating that the Russian army is committing atrocities, expressing opposition to the current Ukrainian government, and indicating that Russia is influencing education in the territory.
   • Assessment: This is likely RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA and an attempt to UNDERMINE SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE. The claim about atrocities REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

2. UKRAINIAN CHILDREN IN OCCUPIED TERRITORIES (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (19:43 UTC) reports that children in occupied Melitopol and Yakymivka are resisting pro-Russian propaganda, including threats and physical violence.
   • Assessment: The claim of Ukrainian resistance REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

3. ZELENSKY IN TURKEY (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Zelenskiy / Official (19:37 UTC), Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (19:39 UTC) and РБК-Україна (19:40 UTC) all feature videos and reports confirming Zelensky's official visit to Turkey, focusing on prisoner exchanges, food security, and cultural diplomacy.
     • Assessment: Confirms that President Zelensky IS NOT IN UKRAINE.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:43 UTC) features a video of President Zelensky stating that he is in Turkey.
   • Assessment: This video further confirms PRESIDENT ZELENSKY'S VISIT TO TURKEY.

4. RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA FILM PREMIERE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Глеб Никитин (19:43 UTC) attended the premiere of "Opolchensky Romance," a series based on Zakhar Prilepin's stories about the "heroes of the Russian Spring."
   • Assessment: This highlights Russia's use of CULTURE AND MEDIA to PROMOTE ITS NARRATIVE about the conflict.

5. UKRAINIAN DRONE MOVEMENTS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:45 UTC) provides updated information on drone movements:
     • Groups of drones in northern Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast.
     • Drones in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Cherkasy Oblast.
     • Groups of drones in Mykolaiv Oblast heading northwest towards Cherkasy Oblast through Kirovohrad Oblast.
     • Drones in central Kharkiv Oblast heading south, and drones in southern Kharkiv Oblast heading west.
   • Assessment: This indicates MULTIPLE VECTORS OF ATTACK and a POTENTIAL EFFORT TO OVERWHELM AIR DEFENSES. The focus on central Ukraine suggests possible targeting of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE or LOGISTICAL HUBS.

• Миколаевский Ванёк (20:04 UTC) provides a new update regarding drone movement: * 4 drones in Pervomaiskyi district, heading towards Vinnytsia Oblast. * 4 drones east of Uman, heading northwest. * 1 drone from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast. * 4 drones around the intersection of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. * 4 drones in the Lozova area of Kharkiv Oblast. * 1 drone south of Kharkiv, heading northwest. * 4 drones in the north of Kyiv Oblast, heading south towards Hostomel. * 7 drones in the Chernihiv area. * 2 drones circling east of Nizhyn. * 1 new drone in Sumy Oblast.
  • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT UPDATE that REINFORCES THE INTENSITY AND BREADTH of the ONGOING DRONE ATTACK. The new locations reported, particularly the concentration of drones approaching KYIV AND ITS SURROUNDINGS, indicate a HIGH-PRIORITY THREAT to the capital.

6. KOCHARYAN ON KARABAKH (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (19:46 UTC), citing Robert Kocharyan, states that Nagorno-Karabakh was surrendered in two stages, blaming Pashinyan's decisions and Russia's failures on the Ukrainian front.
   • Assessment: This highlights the COMPLEX POLITICAL DYNAMICS surrounding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and its connection to the war in Ukraine. Kocharyan's comments suggest internal Armenian divisions and a BLAME GAME regarding the loss of territory.

7. FURTHER KAB THREATS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Миколаївський Ваньок (19:46 UTC) reports another KAB launch towards Milove.
   • Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED AIR THREAT in the specified area.

8. UKRAINIAN CLAIMS ABOUT ARREST OF PUTIN (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Alex Parker Returns (19:48 UTC) reports that Ukrainians believe the US is luring Putin into a trap for arrest.
   • Assessment: This reflects Ukrainian HOPE FOR INTERNATIONAL ACTION against Putin, but it is likely UNREALISTIC.

9. UK PRIME MINISTER STATES EUROPE MUST TAKE ON MORE RESPONSIBILITY (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ASTRA (19:53) reports the Prime Minister of the UK, Kir Starmer, stated that European countries must do more to support security.
   • Assessment: This could show potential DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN US AND EUROPE regarding support.

10. LAVROV AND USHAKOV ARRIVE IN SAUDI ARABIA (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Colonelcassad (19:58 UTC) features an image and video of Lavrov and Ushakov arriving in Saudi Arabia.
    • Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE ARRIVAL of the Russian delegation for talks with the US.

11. UKRAINIAN REPORTS OF EU SUPPORT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (19:59 UTC) reports that total EU aid to Ukraine exceeds US aid.
    • Assessment: This highlights the SIGNIFICANT FINANCIAL SUPPORT provided by the EU to Ukraine.

12. UKRAINIAN FORCES DESTROY RUSSIAN EQUIPMENT (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (20:00 UTC) provides footage of a successful attack on an armored column.
    • Assessment: Accurate according to the report.

13. RUSSIAN SHELLING IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): * 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (20:02 UTC) reports that private houses are burning in a town in the Zaporizhzhia region, indicating RUSSIAN SHELLING.

    • Assessment: The report indicates that Russian forces are TARGETING CIVILIAN AREAS, and confirms DAMAGE TO RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS.

14. CHINA TO PROFIT (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (20:03 UTC) reports that China could potentially win from any scenario.
    • Assessment: FURTHER ANALYSIS is REQUIRED.

15. GENERAL STAFF REPORT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (20:03 UTC) provides an operational update:
      • 122 combat clashes since the beginning of the day.
      • Russian forces conducted 1 missile strike (2 missiles), 53 airstrikes (67 KABs), 1067 drone attacks, and 4500 shelling attacks.
      • Fighting reported in Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kursk directions.
      • Significant losses reported for Russian forces in the Pokrovsk direction: 325 casualties (163 irreversible), 1 tank, 7 UAVs, 1 TOS-2, 2 vehicles, 2 damaged vehicles, 1 motorcycle, 2 damaged UAV antennas, and 3 damaged artillery systems.
      • Emphasis on the effectiveness of the 128th Territorial Defense Brigade and the 79th Border Guard Detachment.
    • Assessment: This report confirms INTENSE FIGHTING across multiple fronts, with the POKROVSK DIRECTION experiencing the HIGHEST LEVEL OF COMBAT ACTIVITY. The reported Russian losses, if accurate, are SIGNIFICANT. The use of a large number of drones and KABs by Russian forces indicates a focus on AIR AND ARTILLERY SUPERIORITY.

16. AIR ALARM IN KYIV (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

    • КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (20:09 UTC) announces an air alarm in Kyiv.
    • STERNENKO (20:10 UTC) states that there is a threat of UAVs in Kyiv and a number of regions.
    • КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (20:10 UTC) states that the air alarm is due to the threat of enemy drones.
    • Assessment: The air alarm confirms an IMMINENT THREAT to Kyiv, likely from the ONGOING DRONE ATTACK.

17. DRONES APPROACHING KYIV (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Миколаевский Ванёк (20:10 UTC) states that 5 drones are approaching Kyiv, Hostomel, Irpin, and Vyshhorod from the north.
    • Assessment: This confirms the IMMINENT THREAT to Kyiv from the north.

18. RECRUITMENT (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (20:07) states that over 10,000 have registered for the "18-24 Contract".
    • Assessment: More recruits will STRENGTHEN UKRAINE.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN-US TALKS, UKRAINE EXCLUDED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Zelensky confirms Ukraine's non-participation and lack of prior knowledge. The US State Department downplays the talks as not being negotiations.
• LARGE-SCALE RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK, KYIV THREATENED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple drone groups are targeting various regions of Ukraine, with a SIGNIFICANT CONCENTRATION approaching KYIV FROM THE NORTH. An air alarm has been declared in Kyiv.
• ZELENSKY IN TURKEY (CONFIRMED): Confirms the President's absence from Ukraine during the US-Russia talks.
• UKRAINIAN FORCES DESTROYING RUSSIAN EQUIPMENT (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES): Multiple reports.
• GENERAL STAFF REPORT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): 122 clashes, significant damage reported done to Russian equipment.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. CONTINUED AIR DEFENSE RESPONSE, PRIORITIZE KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Immediately deploy all available air defense systems to PROTECT KYIV from the INCOMING DRONE THREAT reported by Миколаївський Ваньок.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and population centers.
   • Continue to issue public warnings and advise residents to take shelter.

2. MONITOR RUSSIAN-US TALKS AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Gather intelligence on the talks, despite the US downplaying their significance.
   • Assess the potential impact on the military situation and US-Ukraine relations.
   • Prepare contingency plans for various scenarios.

3. ADDRESS DAMAGE FROM OVERNIGHT ATTACKS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue providing assistance and repairing infrastructure damage from previous attacks.

4. RECRUITMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Streamline the process for new recruits.

5. VERIFY REPORTED UKRAINIAN CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to verify all reported claims.

6. VERIFY UKRAINIAN REINFORCEMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claim of Ukrainian reinforcements.
   • Assess the implications* if the claim is confirmed.

7. VERIFY THE DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN RECON GROUP (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy air defenses in areas where there may be aircraft activity.
   • Assess the potential targets* and the extent of any damage.

8. VERIFY KAB THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy air defenses to prepare for the threat.

9. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The ONGOING DRONE ATTACK, with a MAJOR FOCUS ON KYIV, is the MOST IMMEDIATE THREAT. The CONFIRMED EXCLUSION OF UKRAINE from the US-Russia talks is a MAJOR CONCERN, despite the US downplaying the talks. IMMEDIATE ACTION to COUNTER THE DRONE ATTACK, VERIFY KEY CLAIMS, and MONITOR THE NEGOTIATIONS is ESSENTIAL.