Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 17, 2025, 16:58 UTC

Changes and New Information (16:28 UTC - 16:58 UTC)

1. UKRAINIAN SCHOOL SKIT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (16:30 UTC) posted a video of a skit.
   • Assessment: This is likely RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA aimed at portraying DISSENT within Ukraine and DISRESPECT for Ukrainian authorities.

2. RUSSIAN SOLDIER INTERVIEW (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

   • Воин DV (16:32 UTC) published an interview.
   • Assessment: This serves as RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA, and is not very relevant to the situation.

3. UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATOR INTERVIEW (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

   • Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (16:33 UTC) posted an interview with a drone operator.
   • Assessment: This highlights the CONTINUED IMPORTANCE OF DRONES in Ukrainian military operations, particularly for RECONNAISSANCE, TARGETING, and DELIVERING MUNITIONS.

4. RUSSIAN ASSAULT NEAR YAMPOLIVKA (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (16:33 UTC) posted footage.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS ongoing Russian attempts to ADVANCE in this area. DeepState acknowledges the difficult situation in Terny and near Yampolivka.

5. LITHUANIAN POLITICAL ART (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

   • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (16:34 UTC) posted a video.
   • Assessment: Not directly relevant to military operations, but reflects ANTI-RUSSIAN SENTIMENT.

6. DAMAGE IN DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ASTRA (16:35 UTC) and 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (16:30) reported on damage from Russian attacks.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS Russian attacks on the region, resulting in CIVILIAN CASUALTIES and DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE.

7. RUSSIAN ANALYST INTERVIEW (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

• Alex Parker Returns (16:35) posted a video.
• Assessment: Not relevant.

8. UKRAINIAN FUNDRAISING (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (16:36) reports on a request for donations.
• Assessment: Not relevant.

9. UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

• Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (16:37 UTC) reported on Russian losses. * Assessment: Provides UKRAINIAN PERSPECTIVE on the IMPACT OF THEIR OPERATIONS against Russian forces.

10. ZELENSKY'S PROVOCATIONS (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

• ТАСС (16:37) reported on the accusations.
• Assessment: Confirms Russian claims.

11. ZAPORIZHZHIA BUSINESS MEETING (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (16:38) posted a message.
• Assessment: Not relevant.

12. EUROPEAN TROOP DEPLOYMENT DISCUSSION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• ТАСС (16:39) and Два майора (16:39) reported on this. * Assessment: Highlights DISAGREEMENT among European nations regarding potential troop deployment to Ukraine. UK seems MORE WILLING, while GERMANY and POLAND are MORE CAUTIOUS.

13. GERMAN MILITARY AID (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

    • STERNENKO (16:40 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСU (16:40 UTC) reported on a new German aid package.
    • Assessment: This SIGNIFICANTLY BOOSTS UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES, particularly with MRAPs, ARTILLERY AMMUNITION, and DRONES.

14. DISINFORMATION ABOUT PISCHANE (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

• Народная милиция ДНР (16:40) posted a video.
• Assessment: Confirms that Pischane remains UNDER RUSSIAN CONTROL, despite Ukrainian claims.

15. PROPAGANDA (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

• Alex Parker Returns (16:42) posted a video.
• Assessment: Irrelevant.

16. CANADIAN SANCTIONS (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• ТАСС (16:43) reports new Canadian sanctions. * Assessment: Not relevant.

17. GERMAN MILITARY AID (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• РБК-Україна (16:45 UTC) reported on the new German military aid package. * Assessment: Reinforces the SIGNIFICANCE of the aid package.

18. RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

• Colonelcassad (16:45 UTC) posted a video. * Assessment: CONFIRMS Russian control of SVERDLIKOVO and ongoing efforts to DISRUPT UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS in the region.

19. UKRAINIAN DRONE INTERCEPTION (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

• Сили оборони Півдня України (16:45 UTC) reported successful interception.
  • Assessment: Shows UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES against Russian drones.

20. RUSSIAN USE OF HORSES (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

• БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (16:49 UTC) posted a video.
  • Assessment: This is UNUSUAL and could suggest LOGISTICAL CHALLENGES or ADAPTATION TO DIFFICULT TERRAIN by Russian forces.

21. TURKISH INTERCEPTION OF UKRAINIAN DRONE COMPONENTS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Рыбарь (16:49) reports Turkish actions.
• Assessment: Not relevant.

22. RUSSIAN STATEMENTS AT THE UN (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (16:55) posted a video.
• Assessment: Confirms previous reports.

Updated Situation Summary

• US-RUSSIA-UKRAINE TALKS UNDERWAY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Outcome HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
• KELLOGG STATES NO FORCED PEACE DEAL (HIGH PRIORITY): Clarifies US position.
• RUSSIAN REINFORCEMENTS NEAR KRASNOARMEISK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Indicates INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN EFFORTS.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian control of SVERDLIKOVO
• GREECE WILL NOT PROVIDE F-16S (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Clarifies PREVIOUS MISINFORMATION.
• CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, BOTH SIDES): Confirms ONGOING IMPORTANCE.
• POTENTIAL FOR MISINFORMATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Several reports, particularly from Russian sources, require CAREFUL VERIFICATION.
• SCHOOL SHELTER IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Indicates efforts to protect civilians.
• UPCOMING COLD WEATHER (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Could impact MILITARY OPERATIONS.
• NEW GERMAN MILITARY AID PACKAGE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): This SIGNIFICANTLY strengthens Ukrainian capabilities.
• PISCHANE REMAINS UNDER RUSSIAN CONTROL (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):
• RUSSIAN USE OF HORSES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Unusual, potentially indicating LOGISTICAL CHALLENGES.
• UKRAINIAN SOLDIER SHORTAGE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Requires VERIFICATION.
• RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Ongoing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, causing CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.
• UKRAINIAN AND EUROPEAN LEADERS DISCUSSING POTENTIAL CONCESSIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports suggest INCREASING PRESSURE ON UKRAINE.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Across multiple fronts, TARGETING LOGISTICS.
• UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Continue to effectively target.
• UPCOMING EU-UKRAINE TALKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Discussions will focus on security and defense.
• UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SUCCESS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Successful interception of drones.
• RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains a threat.
• UKRAINIAN OMBUDSMAN ADDRESSES PRISONER EXECUTION VIDEO (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukraine has appealed.
• ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT (ZNPP) AS A STRATEGIC ASSET (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Zelensky emphasizes importance.
• RUSSIAN HUMANITARIAN AID/MILITARY SUPPORT TO DONETSK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Indicates CONTINUED RUSSIAN EFFORTS.

Updated Recommendations

1. MONITOR US-RUSSIA-UKRAINE TALKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Gather intelligence on the talks.
   • Assess the potential impact.
   • Prepare for potential scenarios. ESPECIALLY FOCUS ON ANY DISCUSSION OF ZNPP.

2. REINFORCE DEFENSES NEAR KRASNOARMEISK & YAMPOLIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Prioritize reinforcement of defensive positions.
   • Increase reconnaissance and surveillance.
   • Prepare for potential counter-attacks.

3. VERIFY REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Verify all reports from the last update.
   • Verify the video of the school skit.

4. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS): Monitor the situation.

5. PREPARE FOR EU-UKRAINE TALKS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Develop a clear and unified position.
   • Emphasize territorial integrity and CONTINUED SUPPORT.
   • Seek concrete commitments.

6. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Verify reports of Russian actions.
   • Publicize verified information.

7. ADDRESS POTENTIAL FOR DISINFORMATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): Monitor the situation.

8. ASSESS IMPACT OF GERMAN AID (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE):

• Determine how the new equipment (MRAPs, artillery, drones) can be BEST DEPLOYED to MAXIMIZE their impact.
• Prioritize training on new systems.
• Integrate new capabilities into existing operational plans.

9. INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN USE OF HORSES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE):

   • Determine the extent of this practice.
   • Assess the reasons (logistical problems, terrain, etc.).
   • Evaluate the potential tactical implications.

10. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain.

The situation remains EXTREMELY VOLATILE, with ONGOING TALKS adding UNCERTAINTY. CLARIFICATION about no forced peace deals is IMPORTANT. MONITORING TALKS, REINFORCING DEFENSES, VERIFYING REPORTS, COUNTERING PROPAGANDA and ASSESSING/INTEGRATING NEW GERMAN AID are MOST URGENT PRIORITIES. The unusual report of RUSSIAN USE OF HORSES requires IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION. The confirmed RUSSIAN ADVANCES, particularly in KURSK OBLAST, necessitate IMMEDIATE DEFENSIVE PREPARATIONS.