Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 17, 2025, 12:28 UTC

Changes and New Information (11:42 UTC - 12:28 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN STRIKE ON ZAPORIZHZHIA CABLE FACTORY (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (11:43:04) reports Russian strikes on a factory in occupied Zaporizhzhia that produces cables used by the Ukrainian military, citing Vladimir Rogov.
   • Assessment: HIGH MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE IF CONFIRMED. This could degrade Ukrainian capabilities, particularly in communications and electrical systems. HIGH PRIORITY to verify the extent of damage and the impact on Ukrainian military production.

2. POLAND REFUSES TO SEND TROOPS (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (11:46:52, 11:46:52) posts images and reports Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stating that Poland will not send troops to Ukraine as part of a potential peacekeeping mission, and that the issue is closed.
   • Assessment: This confirms that Poland has withdrawn from this effort.

3. RUSSIAN AVIATION ACTIVITY IN ZAPORIZHZHIA DIRECTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (11:47:25) reports active Russian aviation, with Su-25 "Grach" aircraft working on enemy positions.
   • Assessment: REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of INTENSE RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY in the Zaporizhzhia direction. This INCREASES THE THREAT to Ukrainian forces in the area.

4. ITALIAN PM SUPPORTS COMPARISON OF RUSSIA TO NAZI GERMANY (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS: (11:47:55, 11:47:56) posts an image and reports that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni supported comparisons between Russia and Nazi Germany.

• Assessment: Low Military Significance. This is mainly a political statement.

5. ZELENSKYY VISIT TO SAUDI ARABIA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
   • РБК-Україна (11:50:03, 11:50:03, 11:50:04) posts images, reporting AFP, that Zelenskyy will visit Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, February 19, the day after the US-Russia talks begin. Zelenskyy has stated he will not meet with Russians.

• ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS: (11:55:17, 11:55:17, 11:55:18) posts a photo, reporting Sky News, that Zelenskyy may arrive in Saudi Arabia as early as Tuesday evening, but will not meet with Russian officials. It is unclear if he will meet with US representatives.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (11:59:00) reports Ukraine was unaware of the negotiations in Saudi Arabia and will not recognize them, according to Zelenskyy. * РБК-Україна (12:04:32) posts an image and reports the same. * Assessment: HIGH PRIORITY to clarify the timing and purpose of Zelenskyy's visit and any potential interaction with US officials. This is CRITICAL given the simultaneous US-Russia talks. ZELENSKYY'S REJECTION OF THE TALKS significantly REDUCES THE PROBABILITY OF A BREAKTHROUGH in the near term.

6. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE IN KHARKIV (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (12:18:26) reports a Russian drone strike in Kharkiv, with details still being clarified.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of drone attacks in the area.

7. UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SHOOTS DOWN RUSSIAN DRONE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (12:20:18) reports that Ukrainian air defense shot down a Russian "Molniya" drone over Kharkiv. * Assessment: REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of drone attacks in the area.

8. REPORT: RUSSIAN FORCES ADVANCE IN SEVERAL AREAS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
   • Сливочный каприз (12:06:17, 12:06:17, 12:06:18) posts an image, claiming Russian forces advanced over 300 meters in Pishchane, Donetsk Oblast.

• Assessment: HIGH PRIORITY to verify this and assess its impact on Ukrainian defensive lines.
  • Военкор Котенок (12:23:26, 12:23:27) posts a map, reporting Russian advances north of Andriivka, near Urozhaine, and attempts to secure positions near Kostyantynopil. Ukrainian counterattacks are also reported.
• Assessment: HIGH MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE if confirmed. HIGH PRIORITY to verify these claims and assess their impact on Ukrainian defensive lines. This suggests continued Russian offensive pressure in multiple areas.

9. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (12:19:26, 12:19:27) posts a video and claims a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian vehicle during a Russian attempt to storm.

• Assessment: HIGH MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE.

10. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, GRAPHIC CONTENT):

    • Colonelcassad (12:05:53) posts an image and suggests that the recent claim of Russian control over the landscape park "Keban-Byk" may have been misinterpreted, and that it is more likely the area near Chasov Yar.
    • Assessment: HIGH MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE as it relates to claims of a Russian advance in a key strategic area.

11. RUSSIAN MoD REPORTS ON KURSK (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, GRAPHIC CONTENT):

    • Colonelcassad (12:23:41, 12:23:42) reposts the Russian MoD report on Kursk region.

• Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of Russian control of Sverdlikovo.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian MoD and multiple sources confirm the capture of Sverdlikovo. Reports suggest this may allow Russia to control a key highway, potentially disrupting Ukrainian logistics. Continued fighting in the area. Russian MoD reports significant Ukrainian losses.
• INTENSE FIGHTING IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES): Reports of Russian advances and ongoing battles continue. Ukrainian reconnaissance activity. NEW REPORTS of Russian advances near Andriivka, Urozhaine, and Kostyantynopil, and continued fighting near Chasiv Yar, with claims of taking control of a landscape park (though this claim is disputed).
• CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN MULTIPLE AREAS (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of advances in Belogorye, Shcherbinovka, Volchansk, and now Pishchane, persist. Require independent verification.
• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES): Reports of strikes and alerts continue, including a NEW REPORT of Russian aviation activity in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Ukrainian reports of successful drone strikes on Russian infrastructure, including a NEW REPORT of a strike on a cable factory in occupied Zaporizhzhia.
• UPCOMING US-RUSSIA TALKS IN RIYADH (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Lavrov confirms the talks, with a broad agenda including restoring relations, Ukraine, and the Middle East. Marco Rubio will lead the US delegation. Lavrov rejects any ceasefire that allows Ukraine to rearm. ZELENSKYY'S VISIT TO SAUDI ARABIA is confirmed, coinciding with these talks, but he will NOT participate and rejects the talks' legitimacy.
• RUSSIAN REJECTION OF TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Lavrov explicitly rejects any possibility of territorial concessions by Ukraine, reinforcing Russia's hardline position.
• POTENTIAL GREEK F-16 TRANSFER TO UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports suggest Greece may provide up to 32 F-16 Block 30 fighter jets to Ukraine, a potentially significant boost to Ukrainian air capabilities.
• UKRAINIAN DRONE WARFARE IMPACTING RUSSIAN MORALE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Captured Russian soldier claims drones are the primary threat, causing fear and discouragement. Russian sources report Ukrainian claims of significant damage inflicted by drones.
• ZELENSKYY IN UAE, ECONOMIC AGREEMENT SIGNED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Zelenskyy secures an economic agreement with the UAE, potentially boosting Ukraine's long-term recovery.
• CONTINUED PROPAGANDA AND INFORMATION WARFARE (ONGOING): Multiple reports highlight the ongoing efforts by both sides to shape public opinion and influence perceptions of the conflict.
• POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS IN VOLGOGRAD (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports suggest drone attacks targeted a chemical plant and oil refinery in Volgograd.
• UK READY TO DEPLOY TROOPS FOR PEACE AGREEMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports suggest the UK is ready to help implement peace by stationing troops in Ukraine.
• CHERNOBYL SITUATION UNDER CONTROL, BUT RISK REMAINS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ongoing efforts to extinguish smoldering areas on the shelter roof after a drone strike. Radiation levels remain normal.
• SWEDEN ALSO READY TO SEND PEACEKEEPERS AFTER CEASEFIRE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports from Ukrainian sources suggest this.
• POLAND REFUSES TO SEND TROOPS TO IMPLEMENT PEACE AGREEMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirms that Poland will not help.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE AND CONTROL OF HIGHWAY IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to confirm the extent of Russian control over the 38K-030 highway near Sverdlikovo.
   • Assess the impact on Ukrainian supply lines to Sudzha.
   • Prepare for potential disruptions to Ukrainian logistics.
   • Verify the extent of claimed Ukrainian losses reported by the Russian MoD.

2. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REGARDING POKROVSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS): All recommendations remain in effect. SPECIFICALLY FOCUS ON VERIFYING reported Russian advances near Andriivka, Urozhaine, and Kostyantynopil, and the situation near Chasiv Yar.

3. VERIFY CLAIMS OF CHANGES ON THE MAP (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All recommendations remain in effect. Specifically focus on verifying the reported Russian advances in Pishchane.

4. INVESTIGATE POTENTIAL TERRORIST ATTACK IN KAMIANSK-PODILSKYI (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All recommendations remain in effect.

5. MONITOR US-RUSSIA TALKS IN RIYADH AND ZELENSKYY'S VISIT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Gather all available intelligence on the discussions, paying particular attention to any discussions of ceasefires, peacekeepers, or territorial issues.
   • Assess the implications for the future of the conflict, given Lavrov's hardline stance on territorial concessions and Zelenskyy's rejection of the talks.
   • Assess Marco Rubio's role in setting US policy in Ukraine.
   • CLARIFY the timing and purpose of Zelenskyy's visit to Saudi Arabia and any potential interaction with US officials.

6. VERIFY UKRAINIAN CONDITIONS FOR NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All recommendations remain in effect.

7. VERIFY CLAIMS OF US PEACEKEEPER PROPOSAL (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All recommendations remain in effect.

8. VERIFY CLAIMS OF GREEK F-16 TRANSFER (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence sources to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reports of a potential transfer of F-16s from Greece to Ukraine.
   • Assess the timeline and conditions for any potential transfer.
   • Evaluate the potential impact on the balance of air power in the conflict.

9. ASSESS IMPACT OF DRONE WARFARE ON RUSSIAN MORALE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Gather further intelligence on the psychological effects of Ukrainian drone warfare on Russian troops.
   • Exploit any vulnerabilities identified through information operations.
   • Develop counter-measures to mitigate the impact of drone attacks on Ukrainian forces.

10. VERIFY REPORTS OF DRONE ATTACKS IN VOLGOGRAD (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Use all available intelligence sources to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claims of drone attacks on the chemical plant and oil refinery.
    • Assess the extent of any damage and the potential impact on Russian industrial capacity.
    • Evaluate the implications for Ukrainian long-range strike capabilities.

11. GEOLOCATE AND VERIFY REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE IN KHARKIV REGION (HIGH PRIORITY): All recommendations remain in effect. CONFIRM the reported successful downing of a Russian drone by Ukrainian air defense.

12. GEOLOCATE AND VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ATTACKS IN POLOZHSKOE DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY): All recommendations remain in effect.

13. GEOLOCATE AND VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ATTACKS IN ODESSA REGION (HIGH PRIORITY): All recommendations remain in effect.

14. GEOLOCATE AND VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ATTACKS IN SOUTH DONETSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY): All recommendations remain in effect.

15. MONITOR CHERNOBYL SITUATION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

    • Maintain close monitoring of the situation at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant.
    • Ensure adequate resources are available to respond to any further incidents.

16. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKE ON ZAPORIZHZHIA CABLE FACTORY (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Deploy all available intelligence assets to confirm the strike and assess the extent of damage.
    • Evaluate the impact on Ukrainian military production, particularly communications and electrical systems.

17. MONITOR RUSSIAN AVIATION ACTIVITY IN ZAPORIZHZHIA DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

    • Increase surveillance of the area to detect and track Russian aircraft.
    • Maintain high alert for potential air attacks on Ukrainian positions.

18. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the Kursk region and the CONTINUED FIGHTING IN THE POKROVSK DIRECTION, with NEW REPORTS of Russian advances in multiple areas, remain the MOST URGENT ISSUES. The UPCOMING US-RUSSIA TALKS are CRITICAL, given Lavrov's HARDLINE STANCE ON TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS and ZELENSKYY'S REJECTION OF THE TALKS. The POTENTIAL TRANSFER OF F-16S FROM GREECE could SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE BALANCE OF POWER. CONTINUED VIGILANCE, RAPID RESPONSE CAPABILITIES, EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, AND STRONG DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are paramount. The REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKE on a cable factory in occupied Zaporizhzhia, if confirmed, represents a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT requiring immediate attention.