Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 17, 2025, 08:39 UTC
Changes and New Information (08:09 UTC - 08:39 UTC)
CONFIRMATION OF CPC OIL PUMPING STATION ATTACK (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
ASTRA (08:17 UTC) reports that the "Kropotkinskaya" oil pumping station of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in the Krasnodar Krai was taken out of operation after a UAV attack. The attack used SEVEN drones laden with explosives and METAL SHRAPNEL. The attack was STAGGERED to maximize damage and cause casualties. No personnel were injured. Oil transport continues at reduced capacity. All shareholders (including US and European companies) have been notified.
Военкор Котенок (08:12 UTC) also reports the damage to the CPC station.
РБК-Україна (08:35 UTC) reports on the same attack, using similar language, but referencing the SEVEN drones.
Assessment: This MULTIPLE-SOURCE CONFIRMATION, including from a news source generally aligned with a pro-Ukraine stance (ASTRA), further solidifies the SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN STRIKE on the CPC oil infrastructure. The detail of SEVEN DRONES WITH SHRAPNEL indicates a SOPHISTICATED ATTACK designed for MAXIMUM DAMAGE AND POTENTIAL CASUALTIES. The targeting of the LARGEST CPC STATION IN RUSSIA (ASTRA) and the DISRUPTION TO OIL FLOWS is EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT.
Colonelcassad (08:33 UTC) reports several claimed Russian advances, citing @divgen:
Advance south of Ulakly.
Russian forces approached Konstantynopol.
Clearing of the area between Ulakly and Dachne.
Advance near Nadezhdinka.
Russian forces entered Novoоcheretuvate.
Russian forces entered Novoselka.
Assessment: These claims, IF CONFIRMED, represent SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN GAINS across MULTIPLE AXES. The approach to Konstantynopol, the claimed entry into Novoоcheretuvate and Novoselka, and the advances near Ulakly and Nadezhdinka suggest a BROAD OFFENSIVE PUSH. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED.
DeepState (08:18 UTC) CONFIRMS Russian occupation of Sribne and advances near Dachne, Novoselka, and Figolivka, and in Ulakly.
Assessment: This map, a PRO-UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CORROBORATES portions of Colonelcassad's claims, specifically regarding the OCCUPATION of Sribne, and advances near Dachne, Novoselka, Figolivka, and in Ulakly. This suggests that Russian forces have made SIGNIFICANT AND CONFIRMED gains.
CONTINUED FIGHTING ON THE SOUTHERN DONETSK FRONT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Воин DV (08:00 UTC) reports continued Russian efforts to penetrate Ukrainian defenses along the entire front, with successes in some areas. Claims that reports of Russian advances are premature, as Ukrainian forces still hold positions near the Sukhi Yaly River and northwest of Velyka Novosilka.
Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED FIGHTING but CAUTIONS AGAINST OVERSTATING RUSSIAN GAINS. It suggests FIERCE UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE is slowing the Russian advance.
UKRAINIAN SPECIAL OPERATIONS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, NEW DETAILS):
Оперативний ЗСУ (07:56 UTC) video (reviewed at 08:39 UTC) shows drone footage of the Ukrainian 3rd Special Forces Regiment operation, confirming the location as an INDUSTRIAL FACILITY and showing ARMORED VEHICLES (HUMVEES) used for extraction.
Assessment: These images CORROBORATE earlier reports and PROVIDE NEW DETAILS about the operation, confirming it took place at an INDUSTRIAL FACILITY and highlighting the use of US-SUPPLIED HUMVEES. This demonstrates the OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES OF UKRAINIAN SPECIAL FORCES and their EFFECTIVE USE OF WESTERN EQUIPMENT.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (08:17 UTC) features an interview with "Legioner," commander of an FPV drone unit of the 429th Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment, operating in the Kupyansk direction.
STERNENKO (08:03 UTC) shows a video of Ukrainian FPV drone operations.
Assessment: These reports highlight CONTINUED AND EFFECTIVE UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS, specifically focusing on FPV DRONES for PRECISION STRIKES.
REPORTED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK ON MYKOLAIV TPP (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEW DETAILS):
Дневник Десантника (08:03 UTC) posts a video showing the aftermath of a claimed Geran-2 drone attack on the Mykolaiv TPP, claiming complete destruction of power generation capacity.
Assessment: The video shows two distinct impacts, supporting claims of a successful strike.
INCREASED NATO RECONNAISSANCE NEAR SERBIA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (08:22 UTC) reports increased NATO reconnaissance activity near Serbia, citing multiple flights by CL650, B-350, E-3A, and RQ-4B aircraft.
Assessment: This suggests HEIGHTENED NATO SURVEILLANCE of the region, possibly due to political instability in Serbia.
REPORTED ATTACK IN KURSK REGION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
AV БогомаZ (08:28 UTC): Issued a missile alert for Suzemsky and Sevsky districts.
Дневник Десантника (08:37 UTC): Reports Russian offensive operations near Sverdlikovo, clearing an area south of Makhnovka, and claims fierce battles near Nikolskoye. Also claims a Ukrainian attack on Korenevo, injuring a 67-year-old man, and an attack on a truck near Taborishche.
REPORTED ARREST OF CORRUPT OFFICIALS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN & UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники (08:10 UTC): Reports the murder of two Russian soldiers who exposed corruption, with the names of the commanders involved.
Офіс Генерального прокурора (08:30 UTC): Reports the arrest of two individuals involved in a terrorist attack, with pictures.
Николаевский Ванёк (08:33 UTC): The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the National Police detained two agents of the Russian Federation, who carried out a terrorist attack in Khmelnytskyi.
ТАСС (08:38 UTC): A new criminal case has been opened against the Development Corporation of the Kursk region for abuse of power.
ТАСС (08:49 UTC): The Deputy Minister of Digital Development, Information Technologies, and Communications of the Rostov Region was detained.
ASTRA (08:38 UTC): The Deputy Minister of Digital Development, Information Technology and Communications of the Rostov Region was detained on suspicion of abuse of office.
Новости Москвы (08:30 UTC): A new fraud scheme involves criminals attempting to re-register apartments using forged documents.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (08:31 UTC) claims destruction of Ukrainian infantry by the "Struna" battalion in the Pokrovsk direction, with a video.
Assessment: Requires Verification.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (08:14 UTC) reports the end of the threat to the Kharkiv region.
РБК-Україна (08:16 UTC) reports -22°C temperatures in the Carpathian Mountains.
РБК-Україна (08:37 UTC): Emergency power outages were cancelled in Kyiv, Kyiv Region and Dnipropetrovsk Region.
Оперативний ЗСУ (08:22 UTC) reports that the Ukrainian team took third place in the Invictus Games, with 30 medals.
Сили оборони Півдня України (08:22 UTC): Reports significant Russian losses in the south, including 138 personnel, 3 artillery systems, 4 mortars, 2 tanks, 11 armored vehicles, 26 vehicles, 10 reconnaissance drones, 6 boats, 1 buggy, 4 motorcycles, 16 quad bikes, 4 communication antennas, and 10 drone control antennas. 33 shelters/dugouts, 3 observation points, and 1 checkpoint were destroyed.
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (08:34 UTC): 1355 consumers in Zaporizhzhia lost power due to a nighttime drone attack, but power was restored by 06:45.
Дневник Десантника (08:32 UTC): Reports high activity of enemy aircraft and UAVs in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Воин DV (08:33 UTC): Claims Ukrainian soldiers were killed on the South Donetsk direction.
Alex Parker Returns (08:33 UTC): Showed images of comments made by "Stalingulag."
Updated Situation Summary
CONFIRMED MAJOR UKRAINIAN STRIKE ON RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple sources CONFIRM a successful Ukrainian drone strike on the KROPOTKINSKAYA OIL PUMPING STATION of the CASPIAN PIPELINE CONSORTIUM (CPC) in Krasnodar Krai. The attack involved SEVEN DRONES with SHRAPNEL, indicating a SOPHISTICATED AND HIGHLY DAMAGING attack. The station is the LARGEST IN RUSSIA and its disablement SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTS OIL EXPORTS.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES):DeepState, a pro-Ukrainian source, CONFIRMS Russian occupation of Sribne and advances near several other locations. Colonelcassad, a pro-Russian source, claims additional advances. IF ALL CLAIMS ARE CONFIRMED, this represents a MAJOR RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH across MULTIPLE AXES.
CONTINUED FIGHTING AND DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Intense fighting continues across multiple fronts. Ukrainian forces are ACTIVELY USING FPV DRONES for precision strikes.
INCREASED NATO RECONNAISSANCE NEAR SERBIA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports indicate heightened NATO surveillance activity in the Balkans, potentially related to political instability in Serbia.
RUSSIAN ATTACKS CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY): Missile alert in the Kursk region, and further claims of Ukrainian casualties.
UKRAINIAN SPECIAL FORCES RAIDS (HIGH PRIORITY): Images show the use of Humvees for extraction.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT.
Updated Recommendations
ASSESS AND RESPOND TO RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Urgently verify all claimed Russian advances reported by Colonelcassad and DeepState.
If confirmed, immediately assess the impact on Ukrainian defensive lines and strategic objectives.
Prepare for counter-offensive operations or adjustments to defensive positions to contain the Russian advance.
Prioritize reinforcement of threatened areas.
EXPLOIT SUCCESS OF CPC OIL PUMPING STATION ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Continue to monitor the impact of the attack on Russian oil exports and the global energy market.
Assess the potential for further strikes on similar targets to MAXIMIZE DISRUPTION to the Russian economy.
Prepare for potential Russian retaliation against Ukrainian infrastructure.
MONITOR NATO RECONNAISSANCE ACTIVITY NEAR SERBIA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Gather intelligence on the purpose and scope of NATO surveillance operations in the Balkans.
Assess the potential implications for regional stability and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Coordinate with allies to ensure a unified approach.
MAINTAIN HIGH AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Prioritize air defense across ALL threatened regions, given the continued threat of drone and missile attacks.
Maintain constant monitoring of airspace for incoming threats.
Ensure rapid response capabilities are in place to intercept aircraft, missiles, and drones.
ADDRESS INTERNAL ISSUES WITHIN THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Investigate and address reports of corruption and misconduct within the Ukrainian military, as highlighted by МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники.
Ensure accountability for those responsible for abuses.
Implement measures to prevent future occurrences.
ADDRESS UKRAINIAN RECRUITMENT (HIGH PRIORITY):
Ensure that those between 25-60 years of age that asked for foreign passport services before April 2024 are placed in the Registry of Conscripts.
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN STRIKE on the CPC oil pumping station is a MAJOR VICTORY for Ukraine, but the CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES represent a SERIOUS THREAT. The INCREASED NATO RECONNAISSANCE ACTIVITY near Serbia adds another layer of complexity. RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, AND STRONG DEFENSIVE MEASURES are crucial.
