Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 17, 2025, 07:39 UTC

Changes and New Information (07:10 UTC - 07:39 UTC)

1. RUSSO-AMERICAN TALKS IN SAUDI ARABIA IMMINENT (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Janus Putkonen (07:10 UTC) reports on the upcoming talks in Saudi Arabia, referencing the previous report from Axios. Notes that Ukraine and the EU may attempt to sabotage the results.
   • РБК-Україна (07:24 UTC) confirms US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Saudi Arabia for negotiations with Russian representatives. Mentions Mike Waltz and Steve Witkoff as part of the US delegation.
   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (07:27 UTC), quoting Kommersant, confirms the talks will take place on Tuesday, February 18th, in Riyadh. Emphasizes these are preliminary contacts, not a final agreement.
   • Assessment: This MULTIPLE-SOURCE CONFIRMATION significantly increases the likelihood that high-level talks between US and Russian officials are indeed taking place in Saudi Arabia. The focus on preparing for a potential presidential summit is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT. The Ukrainian perspective, highlighting exclusion from the initial talks, is IMPORTANT TO NOTE.

2. KYIV REGION DRONE ATTACK: DAMAGE AND CASUALTY CONFIRMED (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ASTRA (07:12 UTC) reports Russian drone attacks on four districts of Kyiv Oblast. Damage includes three private houses and two cars in Obukhiv district, a fire at a production facility in Vyshhorod district, a fire at a warehouse in Fastiv district, and damage to a private house in Boryspil district. One person (born in 2003) was injured. Provides MULTIPLE IMAGES of the damage and emergency response.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS AND DETAILS the consequences of the previously reported drone attacks in the Kyiv region. The CONFIRMED CASUALTY, damage to civilian infrastructure, and fires highlight the SERIOUSNESS OF THE ATTACKS. The multiple sources and images provide STRONG EVIDENCE.

3. UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY AND MOLDAVIAN AIRSPACE VIOLATION (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN/MOLDAVIAN SOURCE):

   • ASTRA (07:20 UTC), quoting Ukrainian Air Force and Moldovan government sources, reports that Russia attacked Ukraine with 147 drones. 83 were shot down, and 59 "lost location" without negative consequences. Two drones reportedly violated Moldovan airspace.
   • Assessment: The claim of 59 drones is to be taken with a grain of salt.

4. ALLEGED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS INSIDE RUSSIA (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • STERNENKO (07:21 UTC) reports a massive drone attack on Russia and Crimea overnight, claiming a fire near the Ilsky Oil Refinery in Kuban. Russia claims to have shot down 90 UAVs and a Neptune missile. Includes MULTIPLE VIDEOS purportedly showing explosions and fires.
   • Басурин о главном (07:32 UTC, 07:33 UTC) repeats claims of a massive drone attack on Kuban, reporting damage to residential buildings and a woman injured. Cites Russian Ministry of Defense claims of shooting down ~90 Ukrainian drones and a Neptune-MD missile over the Azov Sea.
   • Assessment: These reports STRONGLY SUGGEST a significant Ukrainian drone operation targeting locations inside Russia, particularly in the Kuban region (Krasnodar Krai). The claims of damage and casualties, combined with multiple videos, increase the likelihood of the reports' validity. However, INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION IS STILL NEEDED. The Russian MOD claims are likely INFLATED.

5. UKRAINIAN FILM "ROCK, PAPER, SCISSORS" WINS BAFTA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (07:20 UTC) reports that the Ukrainian short film "Rock, Paper, Scissors," about the war in Ukraine, won a BAFTA award. Includes a VIDEO of the award acceptance.
   • Assessment: This is NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to the military situation, but HIGHLIGHTS THE CULTURAL IMPACT of the conflict and the ongoing efforts to raise awareness internationally.

6. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVO (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (07:20 UTC) claims destruction of a Ukrainian shelter near Pokrovsk, with a video.
   • ТАСС (07:33 UTC), quoting Denis Pushilin, reports that fighting near Ulakly, west of Kurakhovo, is accelerating the success of Russian forces in the "Kurakhovo pocket." Claims Russian forces maintain the initiative along almost the entire front line, particularly expanding the zone of control in the Velykonovosilkivsky direction.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of intensified fighting in the Donetsk region. The claim of a Russian advance near Kurakhovo, if confirmed, would be a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses.

7. REPORTED UK TROOP DEPLOYMENT TO UKRAINE (REPORTED, PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (07:17 UTC), citing The Telegraph, reports that UK Prime Minister Starmer is ready to deploy British troops to Ukraine. Claims Starmer believes only the US can prevent further Russian attacks but that the White House is unwilling.
   • Assessment: This report REQUIRES URGENT AND CAREFUL VERIFICATION. If true, it would represent a MAJOR ESCALATION of the conflict and a SIGNIFICANT SHIFT in UK policy. However, the source is PRO-RUSSIAN, and the claim SHOULD BE TREATED WITH SKEPTICISM until confirmed by independent sources.

8. UKRAINIAN FORCES CLAIM SUCCESSFUL STRIKES (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Сили оборони Півдня України (07:19 UTC) releases a report detailing the losses over the previous week.
   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (07:32 UTC) reports Ukrainian drone operations on the Pokrovsk direction, with a video.
   • Assessment: This reports can be considered as propaganda.

9. RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM SUCCESSFUL STRIKES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Воин DV (07:31 UTC) claims that the 29th army in the Vugledar region has successfully struck a Leopard A1, with a video.
   • Assessment: This claim requires verification.

10. KURSK REGION DAMAGE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (07:28 UTC) reports damage in Korenevo, Kursk Oblast, Russia, with a video.
    • Assessment: This FURTHER SUPPORTS CLAIMS of Ukrainian attacks inside Russian territory. The video SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE to buildings, indicating a potential successful strike. REQUIRES VERIFICATION OF THE EXACT CAUSE (drone, missile, sabotage).

11. SUPPLY ROUTES OF RUSSIAN TROOPS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (07:31 UTC) reports the supply routes, with a video.
    • Assessment: It reports how the troops are supplied.

12. UKRAINIAN POW (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Басурин о главном (07:33 UTC): Publishes a video that has the potential to be part of a disinformation campaign.

13. EMERGENCY POWER OUTAGES (REPORTED):
    • ТАСС (07:38 UTC) reports emergency power outages in Ukraine due to damaged energy infrastructure.
    • Assessment: This confirms and expands on previous reports of power outages.

Updated Situation Summary

• US-RUSSIA TALKS IN SAUDI ARABIA IMMINENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple sources confirm high-level talks are taking place, potentially paving the way for a presidential summit. Ukraine is initially excluded.
• KYIV REGION DRONE ATTACK: DAMAGE AND CASUALTY CONFIRMED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian drone attacks caused significant damage and at least one injury in multiple districts of Kyiv Oblast.
• UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS INSIDE RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED/POTENTIALLY CONFIRMED): Multiple reports and videos suggest a significant Ukrainian drone operation targeting locations inside Russia, particularly in the Kuban region (Krasnodar Krai).
• CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVO (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian sources claim an advance near Kurakhovo, potentially increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
• POTENTIAL UK TROOP DEPLOYMENT TO UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports suggest UK Prime Minister is ready to deploy troops, but this requires independent confirmation.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING AND DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Intense fighting continues across multiple fronts. Ukrainian claims success in shooting down numerous Russian drones.
• EMERGENCY POWER OUTAGES PERSIST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Widespread power outages continue across Ukraine due to damaged infrastructure.
• KURSK REGION DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY): Video of damage in Korenovo, Kursk Oblast, supports claims of a successful strike on Russian territory.

Updated Recommendations

1. MONITOR US-RUSSIA TALKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather all available intelligence on the talks in Saudi Arabia, including participants, agenda, and potential outcomes.
   • Assess the implications for the conflict and US policy.
   • Prepare for potential shifts in military strategy based on the outcome of the talks.
   • Engage with Ukrainian counterparts to address their concerns about exclusion from the initial talks.

2. VERIFY AND ASSESS UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS INSIDE RUSSIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Continue efforts to confirm or refute the reported drone attacks on the Ilsky Oil Refinery and other locations in Russia.
   • Assess the extent of damage if the attacks are confirmed.
   • Analyze the implications for Russia's fuel supply and overall war effort.
   • Investigate potential launch points of the drones.
   • Increase surveillance of potential launch areas and routes used by Ukrainian drones.

3. ADDRESS KYIV REGION DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Provide support and assistance to the injured person and affected residents in Kyiv Oblast.
   • Continue efforts to repair damaged infrastructure and restore power.
   • Increase air defense readiness in the Kyiv region to counter further attacks.

4. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVO (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claimed Russian advance near Kurakhovo.
   • Assess the impact on Ukrainian defensive positions and supply lines if the claim is confirmed.
   • Prepare for potential counter-offensive operations or adjustments to defensive lines.

5. CLARIFY UK TROOP DEPLOYMENT PROPOSAL (HIGH PRIORITY, DIPLOMATIC ACTION):

   • Urgently seek clarification from UK officials regarding the reported readiness to deploy troops to Ukraine.
   • Assess the potential implications for the conflict and NATO involvement.
   • Coordinate with allies to develop a unified response.

6. MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED VIGILANCE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain a high state of alert across all fronts, particularly in areas where fighting is intense.
   • Continue efforts to intercept and destroy enemy drones and missiles.
   • Monitor for potential Russian retaliation for Ukrainian strikes inside Russia.

7. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The IMMINENT US-RUSSIA TALKS are a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT with potentially far-reaching consequences. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE near Kostiantynivka and the POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN STRIKE on the Ilsky Oil Refinery are the MOST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS, requiring IMMEDIATE AND FOCUSED ATTENTION. The CONTINUED FIGHTING, AIR ATTACKS, AND POWER OUTAGES highlight the ONGOING INTENSITY OF THE CONFLICT. The IMMINENT SAUDI-MEDIATED TALKS and the UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR UK TROOP DEPLOYMENT add further layers of COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY. RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, AND CAREFUL DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT are essential.