Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 17, 2025, 05:39 UTC
Changes and New Information (05:09 UTC - 05:39 UTC)
UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE ACTIONS NEAR KURAKHOVE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
46 окрема аеромобільна бригада ДШВ ЗС України (05:14 UTC) released a video showing Ukrainian forces (46th Airmobile Brigade) conducting counter-offensive actions near Kurakhove, in the Pokrovsk direction. The video shows drone strikes against Russian infantry and equipment.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS ongoing INTENSE FIGHTING in the Pokrovsk direction and UKRAINIAN EFFORTS TO REGAIN TERRITORY. The video DEMONSTRATES UKRAINIAN USE OF DRONES for both reconnaissance and attack. This DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS claims of a solely Russian offensive in this area.
RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (05:14 UTC) reports 486 Russian strikes on 12 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past 24 hours. This includes 18 airstrikes, 282 drone attacks, 6 MLRS attacks, and 180 artillery strikes. Damage to residential buildings reported, but no civilian casualties.
Assessment: This CONFIRMSCONTINUED INTENSE RUSSIAN ATTACKS across Zaporizhzhia Oblast, using a VARIETY OF WEAPON SYSTEMS. The HIGH NUMBER OF DRONE ATTACKS is noteworthy. The lack of reported civilian casualties is FORTUNATE, but the damage to infrastructure is SIGNIFICANT.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR VELYKA NOVOSELKA, NOVOOCHEROVATOE, AND NOVOSELKA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Z комитет + карта СВО (05:16 UTC) claims Russian advances near Velyka Novoselka, Novoocherovatoe, and Novoselka. Accompanying maps indicate areas of claimed Russian control.
Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If true, these advances would represent SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN GAINS in the South Donetsk direction. The maps NEED INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION, as they originate from a pro-Russian source.
UK PRIME MINISTER STARNER READY TO PLACE TROOPS IN UKRAINE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Оперативний ЗСУ (05:20 UTC) reports UK Prime Minister Kir Starner stating readiness to deploy troops to Ukraine to ensure implementation of a peace agreement, citing The Telegraph.
Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT and POTENTIAL ESCALATION. It REQUIRES VERIFICATION AND CLARIFICATION from UK sources. If confirmed, it indicates a SIGNIFICANT SHIFT in UK policy and a WILLINGNESS TO COMMIT TROOPS to a post-conflict scenario. This COULD HAVE PROFOUND IMPLICATIONS for the future of the conflict.
DRONE DEBRIS INJURES THREE IN KHARKIV (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (05:28 UTC) reports three women in Kharkiv suffering acute stress reactions due to falling debris from a Geran-2 drone. Damage to a farm building and 14 private homes. Another drone strike damaged a building in the Saltivskyi district, with no casualties.
Assessment: This CONFIRMSCONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS on Kharkiv and CIVILIAN IMPACT. While no physical injuries were reported, the psychological impact is SIGNIFICANT.
CLAIMED US-RUSSIA MEETING IN SAUDI ARABIA (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Оперативний ЗСУ (05:29 UTC) citing Axios, reports an expected meeting between US and Russian delegations in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to discuss the war in Ukraine. A Ukrainian source claims Ukraine's only invitation was a media report.
Assessment:REQUIRES VERIFICATION. It corroborates previous reports.
ARTILLERY ATTACK ON MARGANETS, CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (05:30 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСU (05:38 UTC) report Russian artillery attacks on Marganets, causing casualties (one hospitalized in moderate condition) and damage to numerous buildings, including a school, administrative building, industrial and municipal enterprises, shops, a cafe, a legal center, and residential buildings. Power lines also damaged. Two drones shot down over the region.
Assessment: This CONFIRMSCONTINUED RUSSIAN TARGETING OF CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE in Marganets. The casualties are REGRETTABLE, and the damage to essential services and businesses is SEVERE.
DRONE ATTACK ON SUMY SERVICE STATION (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (05:32 UTC) reports damage caused by the attack.
Assessment:REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
PLANNED EXPLOSION IN KRYVYI RIH (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Олександр Вілкул (05:33 UTC) reports planned explosion in Kryvyi Rih.
Assessment: It's not related to military activity.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES, UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS, AND AIRCRAFT DOWNED (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
WarGonzo (05:33 UTC) claims Russian advances on multiple fronts:
Zaporizhzhia front: Positional battles, active use of long-range weapons.
Donetsk front: Russian advances towards Konstantinopol and Ulakly, intense battles near Pokrovsk, Ukrainian counterattacks near Peschanoye and Dzerzhinsk.
Chasov Yar direction: Battles in Chasov Yar, Russian long-range strikes.
Kursk region: Russian advance in Sverdlikovo, Ukrainian counterattacks.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (05:34 UTC) claims Russian air defenses shot down a Ukrainian Su-27 attempting to launch a French HAMMER bomb near Konstantinopol on February 16th. The missile also reportedly destroyed the bomb.
Assessment: These claims REQUIRE VERIFICATION. If true, they represent SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN GAINS on multiple fronts. The reported downing of a Ukrainian Su-27 and destruction of a HAMMER bomb would be a MAJOR BLOW to Ukrainian air capabilities. However, these are RUSSIAN SOURCES, and INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION is ESSENTIAL.
Updated Situation Summary
INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (CONFIRMED/REPORTED):
Confirmed Ukrainian counter-offensive actions near Kurakhove (Pokrovsk direction).
Reported Russian advances near Velyka Novoselka, Novoocherovatoe, Novoselka, Konstantinopol, Ulakly, and Sverdlikovo.
Confirmed battles in Chasov Yar.
Confirmed Russian drone and artillery attacks in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
Confirmed Ukrainian downing of drones.
POTENTIAL UK TROOP DEPLOYMENT TO UKRAINE (REPORTED): UK Prime Minister Starner reportedly ready to deploy troops to ensure a peace agreement.
CLAIMED US-RUSSIA MEETING IN SAUDI ARABIA (REPORTED): Meeting expected on Tuesday to discuss the war, without Ukrainian participation according to a source.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN TARGETING OF CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (CONFIRMED): Attacks on Kharkiv, Marganets, and Sumy, causing damage and casualties.
CLAIMED DOWNING OF UKRAINIAN SU-27 (REPORTED): Russian air defenses reportedly shot down a Ukrainian Su-27 and a HAMMER bomb.
Utilize satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, and human intelligence to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claimed Russian advances near Velyka Novoselka, Novoocherovatoe, Novoselka, Konstantinopol, Ulakly, and Sverdlikovo.
Assess the extent of Russian control and the IMPACT ON UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS.
CLARIFY UK TROOP DEPLOYMENT STATEMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Seek official confirmation from UK sources regarding Prime Minister Starner's reported statement.
Determine the SCOPE, CONDITIONS, AND TIMELINE for any potential troop deployment.
Assess the IMPLICATIONS for NATO involvement and the overall conflict.
CONFIRM US-RUSSIA MEETING AND UKRAINIAN PARTICIPATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Verify the reported meeting in Saudi Arabia between US and Russian delegations.
Determine whether Ukraine will be represented and, if not, EXPRESS STRONG CONCERNS to US officials.
Coordinate with European allies to ensure a unified response.
VERIFY REPORTED DOWNING OF UKRAINIAN SU-27 (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Utilize all available intelligence sources to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claimed downing of a Ukrainian Su-27 and destruction of a HAMMER bomb.
Assess the impact on Ukrainian air capabilities.
MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED AIR DEFENSE READINESS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):
Maintain a high state of alert for continued Russian air and drone attacks, particularly targeting critical infrastructure and civilian areas.
Continue efforts to improve air defense capabilities.
SUPPORT UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Provide continued support to Ukrainian forces conducting counter-offensive operations, particularly near Kurakhove.
Maintain a high tempo of drone operations for reconnaissance and attack.
ADDRESS CIVILIAN CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Provide medical assistance to those injured in attacks.
Assess and repair damage to civilian infrastructure.
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, the POTENTIAL UK TROOP DEPLOYMENT, the CLAIMED US-RUSSIA MEETING, and the CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING across multiple fronts represent MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS with POTENTIALLY PROFOUND IMPLICATIONS. VERIFYING REPORTS, CLARIFYING STATEMENTS, and MAINTAINING VIGILANCE are CRITICAL PRIORITIES.
