Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 17, 2025, 00:38 UTC

Changes and New Information (00:09 UTC - 00:38 UTC)

1. EXPANDED DRONE ACTIVITY (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, Николаевский Ванёк, 00:09 UTC, 00:33 UTC):

   • Detailed reports of multiple drone movements across various regions:
     • 4 drones near Kremenchuk, heading south.
     • 1 drone west of Poltava, heading towards Kremenchuk.
     • 2 drones circling in northern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
     • 3 drones in northern Poltava Oblast.
     • 1 drone near Hostomel, moving towards Vyshhorod.
     • 3 drones approaching Boryspil.
     • 1 drone near Shepetivka, heading southwest.
     • 2 drones circling in northern Kyiv Oblast.
     • 1 drone in northern Chernihiv Oblast.
     • 3 NEW drones towards the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia (00:33 UTC).
   • Assessment: This SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDS the previous assessment of the drone threat. The widespread activity indicates a LARGE-SCALE, COORDINATED DRONE OPERATION targeting multiple regions simultaneously. The reports of drones near Kyiv, Boryspil, and Hostomel are particularly concerning, given the strategic importance of these locations. The addition of drones near Zaporizhzhia city (00:33 UTC) CONFIRMS AN ESCALATING THREAT in that region.

2. EXPLOSIONS REPORTED IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN OFFICIAL, РБК-Україна, 00:33 UTC):

   • The head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration reported explosions in the region.
   • Assessment: This CORROBORATES the report of new drones approaching Zaporizhzhia and CONFIRMS that the drone attacks are ONGOING. This, combined with the previous air alert and guided aerial bomb launches, indicates a SERIOUS AND EVOLVING THREAT in the region.

3. RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN BOHATYRSKE AND ULAKLY, KONSTANTYNIVKA FIGHTING, ANDRIIVKA (CLAIMED/REPORTED ,RUSSIAN SOURCE, Военкор Котенок, 00:35 UTC): * Russian forces make significant, unexpected advance. * Ukrainian forces retreat from Ulakly under heavy pressure. * Fighting on the outskirts of Konstantynivka * No Ukrainian positions in Andriivka, but diversionary groups are present. * Drone usage is insufficient to compensate.

   • Assessment: The BOHATYRSKE and the ULAKLY claims CORROBORATES the report of the previous Grad MLRS attack near Ulakly.

4. RUSSIAN SUCCESSES IN NADEZHDENKA AND PREOBRAZHENKA (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, Военкор Котенок, 00:35 UTC):

   • Nadezhdenka being cleared, and forces have entered and consolidated in Preobrazhenka.
   • Assessment: CORROBORATES previous map from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

5. UKRAINIAN TACTICS NEAR POKROVSK (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, Военкор Котенок, 00:35 UTC):

   • Ukrainian forces are employing small group tactics, and DRGs are active.
   • Assessment: These actions show the RESILIENCE AND ADAPTABILITY of the Ukrainian forces.

6. RUSSIAN SUCCESS NEAR USPIVKA (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, Военкор Котенок, 00:35 UTC):

   • Advancement towards Novooleksandrivka.
   • Assessment: Consistent with the overall pattern of Russian advances, particularly in the Donetsk region.

7. CIVILIAN CASUALTIES IN KHERSON OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, TASS, 00:12 UTC):

   • TASS reports 16 civilian deaths and 109 injuries (including 5 minors) in Kherson Oblast due to Ukrainian shelling since the beginning of 2025.
   • Assessment: This is a CLAIM from a Russian state-controlled media outlet. It requires INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. While civilian casualties are a tragic reality of the conflict, this specific claim should be treated with caution due to its source.

8. IRRELEVANT REPORTS (IRRELEVANT):

   • Police reports from Khabarovsk Krai, Russia (00:12 UTC).
   • Report on Moskalova's review of healthcare appeals (00:23 UTC).

Updated Situation Summary

• MASSIVE, COORDINATED DRONE ATTACKS ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Widespread drone activity reported across multiple regions, indicating a MAJOR, COORDINATED OFFENSIVE.
• EXPLOSIONS CONFIRMED IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Corroborates drone reports and confirms ongoing attacks.
• RUSSIAN GROUND ADVANCES BOGATYRSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian advances confirmed around ULAKLY, KONSTANTYNIVKA, ANDRIIVKA, NADEZHDENKA, PREOBRAZHENKA, USPIVKA and towards NOVOOLEKSANDRIVKA.
• POTENTIAL MAJOR ESCALATION OF NATO INVOLVEMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): UK Prime Minister Starmer's statement regarding troop deployment readiness remains a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT.
• UKRAINIAN CLAIM OF MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK ON KUBAN (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): The Russian claim of a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack still needs INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. IMMEDIATELY ACTIVATE AND REINFORCE AIR DEFENSES ACROSS ALL THREATENED REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available air defense systems to counter the widespread drone threat, prioritizing:
     • Kyiv and surrounding areas (Kyiv Oblast, Boryspil, Hostomel, Vyshhorod).
     • Zaporizhzhia and surrounding areas.
     • Kremenchuk and Poltava regions.
     • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
     • Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
     • Chernihiv Oblast.
     • Shepetivka area.
   • Ensure maximum alert status and rapid response protocols for all air defense units.
   • Utilize all available detection and tracking resources (radar, electronic warfare, visual observers).

2. GATHER REAL-TIME INTELLIGENCE ON DRONE MOVEMENTS AND TARGETS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Continuously monitor drone activity using all available sources.
   • Attempt to identify specific targets and issue timely warnings to potential locations.
   • Coordinate with civilian authorities to ensure public safety.

3. CONTINUE DAMAGE AND CASUALTY ASSESSMENT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA AND KHARKIV (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather complete information on the impact of the explosions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
   • Continue assessment in Kharkiv, monitoring the condition of those affected.

4. CONTINUE TO CORROBORATE RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY): The situation in ULAKLY, KONSTANTYNIVKA, ANDRIIVKA, NADEZHDENKA, PREOBRAZHENKA, USPIVKA and towards NOVOOLEKSANDRIVKA.

5. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation has DRAMATICALLY ESCALATED due to the MASSIVE, COORDINATED DRONE ATTACKS across Ukraine. The IMMEDIATE PRIORITY is to ACTIVATE AND REINFORCE AIR DEFENSES to protect critical infrastructure and population centers. CONTINUOUS MONITORING, RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, AND COORDINATED ACTION are ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL to respond to this unprecedented threat. The reported Russian ground advances add another layer of complexity and urgency to the situation.