Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 16, 2025, 21:09 UTC

Changes and New Information (20:39 UTC - 21:09 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE FAILURE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (20:40 UTC) claims Russian air defense ("пЕвео") shot down its own missiles, causing debris to fall on civilian areas ("мирняк").
   • Assessment: This SUGGESTS POTENTIAL INCOMPETENCE OR MALFUNCTIONING of Russian air defense systems. IF CONFIRMED, this is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, indicating a vulnerability that could be exploited. It also reinforces the RISK TO CIVILIANS from Russian military actions. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

2. DRONE MOVEMENTS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (20:40, 20:43, 20:46, 20:53, 21:02 UTC) provides DETAILED UPDATES on multiple drone movements:
     • Two drones approaching Reni.
     • One drone leaving Odesa Oblast into Moldova.
     • Four drones flying south of Zatoka, probably will turn towards the Izmail district.
     • One drone flew through part of Moldova, attempting to return.
     • Two drones changing course towards Orlivka.
     • One drone turning towards Izmail from the west.
     • One drone west of Izmail, heading towards Orlivka.
     • Five drones east of Bolhrad, heading southwest towards Reni/Orlivka.
     • One drone, having flown into Moldova, is attempting to return.
     • Three drones near Kremenchuk.
     • Nine drones in northern Poltava Oblast.
     • Four drones west of Poltava, heading southwest.
     • Four drones moving from Chernihiv Oblast into Kyiv Oblast.
     • Six drones moving from Sumy Oblast into Poltava Oblast.
     • Four drones heading towards/through Nizhyn.
     • Eight drones west of Konotop, heading south.
     • Four drones at the intersection of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, heading towards Poltava Oblast.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:43 UTC) confirms drone movements:
     • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones heading southwest.
     • Sumy Oblast: Drones heading west.
     • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Drones heading northwest.
     • Odesa Oblast: Drones heading towards the south of the region.
   • Assessment: These reports confirm WIDESPREAD AND COMPLEX DRONE ACTIVITY across multiple regions of Ukraine. The MULTIPLE DRONES ENTERING AND EXITING MOLDOVAN AIRSPACE is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, raising DIPLOMATIC AND SECURITY CONCERNS. The reports indicate a HIGH LEVEL OF THREAT to MULTIPLE TARGETS, including RENI, ORLIVKA, IZMAIL, KREMENCHUK, POLTAVA OBLAST, KYIV OBLAST, NIZHYN, and KONOTOP.

3. RUSSIAN AVIATION ACTIVITY (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (20:50 UTC) reports Russian aviation departing without further launches.
   • Assessment: This suggests a POTENTIAL PAUSE in air attacks, but DOES NOT ELIMINATE THE THREAT. It is possible this is a temporary lull for refueling/rearming.

4. US PRISONER RELEASED (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Alex Parker Returns (20:45 UTC) reports that US citizen Kalob Byers, recently detained in Russia for cannabis gummies, has been released and is at the US embassy.
   • Assessment: This is NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to the military situation in Ukraine, but could be a MINOR POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT in US-Russia relations. It is UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT the conflict.

5. UKRAINIAN FORCES REPEL RUSSIAN ATTACK NEAR VELYKA NOVOSILKA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (20:48 UTC) reports Ukrainian forces repelled several waves of a Russian offensive near Velyka Novosilka, utilizing drones, artillery, and anti-tank weapons (including Javelins) to inflict heavy losses on Russian armor and infantry.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS A SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN VICTORY in this sector. The reported use of MULTIPLE WEAPON SYSTEMS IN A COORDINATED MANNER highlights the EFFECTIVENESS OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSE TACTICS. The reported heavy Russian losses are a MAJOR SETBACK for Russian forces in this area.

6. POKROVSK DIRECTION UPDATE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (20:50 UTC) provides a detailed update on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction:
     • Udachne: Russian forces fighting near the central part and south of the station.
     • Kotlyne: Ukrainian forces pushed out of the southern part; Russian forces attempting to advance north towards mine #1.
     • Zverevo: Fighting near the reservoir.
     • Pishchane: Ukrainian forces attempting to hold positions and expand control; both sides bringing in reserves.
     • Belhiika area: Tense situation; Ukrainian attempts to advance unsuccessful, but continuing.
     • Lysivka: Tense situation; both sides attempting to advance, but unsuccessfully.
   • Assessment: This report CONFIRMS INTENSE FIGHTING in the Pokrovsk direction, with SMALL GAINS AND LOSSES ON BOTH SIDES. The situation remains FLUID AND HIGHLY CONTESTED. This report PARTIALLY CONTRADICTS the earlier ISW assessment of a slowdown in the Russian offensive.

7. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (20:51 UTC) shows a video claiming to show a strike against a Russian soldier and position.
   • Assessment: This FURTHER REINFORCES the ongoing use of drones.

8. TRIPARTITE NEGOTIATIONS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Новости Москвы (20:57 UTC) states that on Tuesday, February 18, negotiations on Ukraine will be held in Er-Riyadh with three sides participating (American, Russian, and Ukrainian).

• Assessment: This is POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, but NEEDS VERIFICATION. This is the FIRST REPORT of DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS.

9. DRONE FUNDRAISING (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): STERNENKO (20:59 UTC) reports 380 drones were purchased today with donations, for a total of 147,757 FPV drones.
   • Assessment: This HIGHLIGHTS the continued reliance on donations.

Updated Situation Summary

• WIDESPREAD DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): EXTREMELY DETAILED REPORTS confirm MASSIVE AND COMPLEX DRONE ACTIVITY across MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE. The ENTRY AND EXIT OF DRONES INTO MOLDOVAN AIRSPACE is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT. MULTIPLE TARGETS are under IMMEDIATE THREAT.
• RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE FAILURE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, NEEDS VERIFICATION): Claims of Russian air defense shooting down its own missiles require URGENT INVESTIGATION.
• UKRAINIAN VICTORY NEAR VELYKA NOVOSILKA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian forces SUCCESSFULLY REPELLED a major Russian offensive, inflicting HEAVY LOSSES.
• INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports confirm ONGOING, FIERCE COMBAT with SMALL GAINS AND LOSSES ON BOTH SIDES.
• POTENTIAL PAUSE IN RUSSIAN AIR ATTACKS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of Russian aviation departing MAY INDICATE A TEMPORARY LULL, but DOES NOT ELIMINATE THE THREAT.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS across ALL THREATENED REGIONS, with PARTICULAR FOCUS on areas identified in the drone movement reports: RENI, ORLIVKA, IZMAIL, KREMENCHUK, POLTAVA OBLAST, KYIV OBLAST, NIZHYN, and KONOTOP.
   • Issue clear and frequent warnings to civilians to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
   • Prepare for potential mass casualty events and ensure medical facilities are on HIGH ALERT.
   • Coordinate with Moldovan authorities to address the VIOLATION OF MOLDOVAN AIRSPACE by drones.

2. INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE FAILURE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claims of Russian air defense shooting down its own missiles.
   • If confirmed, analyze the reasons for the failure and IDENTIFY POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES that can be exploited.

3. CAPITALIZE ON VICTORY NEAR VELYKA NOVOSILKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Assess the extent of Russian losses and IDENTIFY OPPORTUNITIES for further counter-offensive operations.
   • Reinforce Ukrainian positions in the area to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.

4. MONITOR POKROVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain close surveillance of the situation in the Pokrovsk direction.
   • Adjust defensive strategies as needed to RESPOND TO RUSSIAN ADVANCES and EXPLOIT UKRAINIAN GAINS.

5. PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL RESUMPTION OF AIR ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Maintain high alert for air defenses, despite the reported departure of Russian aviation.
   • Anticipate potential new attacks and PREPARE FOR RAPID RESPONSE.

6. VERIFY TRIPARTITE NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Seek confirmation on negotiations from Ukrainian sources.

7. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY VOLATILE. The MASSIVE AND COMPLEX DRONE ACTIVITY poses an IMMEDIATE AND WIDESPREAD THREAT. The UKRAINIAN VICTORY NEAR VELYKA NOVOSILKA is a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT, but INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES in the POKROVSK DIRECTION. The POTENTIAL FAILURE OF RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE requires URGENT INVESTIGATION. CONSTANT VIGILANCE, RAPID RESPONSE, AND EFFECTIVE COORDINATION are essential.