Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 16, 2025, 15:39 UTC

Changes and New Information (15:09 UTC - 15:39 UTC)

1. THREE CIVILIANS KILLED IN BELGOROD OBLAST BY UKRAINIAN DRONE (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (15:27 UTC) reports that a Ukrainian drone strike on a civilian car in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, killed three civilians. Governor confirms.
   • Военкор Котенок (15:35 UTC) reports the same, highlighting it as another attack on civilians and noting the location as Grafovka (Krasnoyaruzhsky district). A map is provided.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and a TRAGIC LOSS OF CIVILIAN LIFE. The attack INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY, targeting a CIVILIAN VEHICLE, is a SERIOUS INCIDENT. This CONFIRMS UKRAINE'S CAPABILITY AND WILLINGNESS to strike targets WITHIN RUSSIA, and INCREASES THE RISK OF RETALIATORY ACTIONS by Russia. This aligns with the earlier reported drone attack on Graivoron. The map provided by Военкор Котенок highlights the border proximity.

2. WESTERN MILITARY AID REPORTEDLY MISSING BEFORE REACHING TRAINING CENTERS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN & RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • ТАСС (15:12 UTC) reports that, according to The Sunday Telegraph, Western military aid to Ukraine is disappearing before reaching training centers. Trucks with equipment reportedly don't reach their destinations, and vehicle shipments arrive missing parts.
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES CAREFUL VERIFICATION. If true, it would be a SERIOUS PROBLEM for Ukraine, indicating LOGISTICAL ISSUES, CORRUPTION, or SABOTAGE. This could significantly IMPACT UKRAINE'S ABILITY TO TRAIN AND EQUIP ITS FORCES. It's important to note that this report comes after a claim by TASS (14:42 UTC) that Russian forces had captured large numbers of Javelin systems.

3. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK DIRECTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Рыбарь (15:12 UTC) reports on the fighting for Sverdlikovo in the Kursk direction. Claims Russian forces almost completely control Sverdlikovo, conducting clearing operations. Reports continued fighting in Malaya Loknya, Pogrebki, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Also claims a difficult situation in Makhnovka-Fanaseevka, where a Ukrainian drone attacked a Pervyi Kanal (First Channel) crew. Claims further Russian advance will target Sudzha. A map is provided.
     • Два майора (15:20 UTC) claims the "pocket" up to Ulakly is cleared. Claims that Russian forces took an enemy strongpoint on the highway between Dachny and Ulakly.
   • Assessment: These reports SUGGEST CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in the KURSK REGION. The claimed control of Sverdlikovo, if confirmed, would represent a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE. The reports of ongoing fighting in other locations indicate CONTINUED RESISTANCE. The attack on a Pervyi Kanal crew highlights the dangers of operating near the front lines. The reported ultimate target of Sudzha indicates a LARGER STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE. NEEDS INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.

4. CLAIMED RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH IN NOVOSYOLKA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (15:26) reports that the Russian army has broken through into the rear of the AFU at Novosyolka. The source also reports a successful attack, including an armored vehicle.

   • Assessment: If confirmed, this would be a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, indicating a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE and a POTENTIAL BREAKTHROUGH of Ukrainian defenses. This could lead to a MAJOR SHIFT IN THE BATTLEFIELD DYNAMICS in this area. REQUIRES IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH VERIFICATION.

5. CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF RUSSIAN RETRANSLATOR (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Воин DV (15:32) reports that soldiers of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed a communications tower with antennas and repeaters in the area of Chernishcha, thereby reducing enemy drone activity in the area. A video is provided.

   • Assessment: If confirmed, this represents a TACTICAL SUCCESS for the Russian forces, DISRUPTING UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS in that specific area.

6. GERMANY ANNOUNCES LARGE DRONE SHIPMENT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Дневник Десантника (15:34) reports that the company Helsing in Germany has announced a supply of 6,000 HX-2 Karma kamikaze drones and 4,000 HF-1 drones to Ukraine.

   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT INCREASE in the delivery of drones.

7. CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN ARMORED FIGHTING VEHICLE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (15:35) reports that "Lancets" were used to deliver a cumulative warhead to an enemy's armored vehicle. It is reported that the operation takes place on the border with the Kursk region, and that Group "North" is operating. A video is provided.

   • Assessment: If confirmed, this represents a TACTICAL SUCCESS for the Russian forces.

8. NORWAY JOINS INTERNATIONAL DRONE COALITION FOR UKRAINE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (15:25 UTC) confirms that Norway has joined the international Drone Coalition for Ukraine, led by Latvia and the UK. This brings the total number of countries in the coalition to 17. The coalition was formed in February 2024 to provide Ukraine with drones and support drone production.
   • Assessment: This is a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT for Ukraine, STRENGTHENING ITS DRONE CAPABILITIES through international cooperation. It indicates CONTINUED AND GROWING SUPPORT for Ukraine's defense efforts.

9. UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Сили оборони Півдня України (15:14 UTC) shows a video compilation of drones from the "No Chance" group of the 108th Territorial Defense Brigade destroying Russian transports, armored vehicles, and warehouses.
• Colonelcassad (15:34 UTC) shows a video of drone operators working against enemy infantry and finishing off a damaged armored personnel carrier. Kursk direction.
• Assessment: This FURTHER CONFIRMS THE INTENSE AND ONGOING DRONE WARFARE on both sides of the conflict.

10. ZELENSKY REJECTS US-RUSSIA MINERALS DEAL (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN AND US SOURCES):
    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (15:26 UTC) reports that Washington is disappointed with Zelensky's refusal to sign an agreement giving the US access to Ukrainian rare earth resources. Quotes White House National Security Council Press Secretary Brian Hughes.
    • Два майора (15:16 UTC) reports the same. РБК-Україна (15:21 UTC) reports that Zelensky is ready to discuss de facto Russian control over occupied territories if Ukraine gets into NATO.
    • STERNENKO (15:31 UTC) reports the same. Оперативний ЗСУ (15:32 UTC) reports that elections are possible in Ukraine on the 26th of October.
    • Assessment: This reveals SIGNIFICANT TENSION between Ukraine and the US regarding the terms of support. Zelensky's refusal indicates a STRONG DESIRE TO MAINTAIN UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY over its resources. This COULD COMPLICATE FUTURE AID NEGOTIATIONS and POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A SHIFT IN US SUPPORT. It signals a strong difference of opinions between Ukraine and the USA.

Updated Situation Summary

• THREE CIVILIANS KILLED IN BELGOROD OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The Ukrainian drone attack on a civilian car is a MAJOR ESCALATION and a SERIOUS INCIDENT, increasing the risk of Russian retaliation.
• REPORTED LOSS OF WESTERN MILITARY AID (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): If confirmed, this would be a SERIOUS PROBLEM for Ukraine, impacting its ability to train and equip its forces.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN KURSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of Russian advances, particularly in Sverdlikovo, NEED VERIFICATION, but indicate CONTINUED FIGHTING and POTENTIAL RUSSIAN GAINS.
• CLAIMED RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH IN NOVOSYOLKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): If confirmed, this is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT that could shift the battlefield dynamics.
• NORWAY JOINS DRONE COALITION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT for Ukraine, strengthening its drone capabilities.
• INTENSE DRONE WARFARE CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Both sides are heavily utilizing drones for reconnaissance and attacks.
• ZELENSKY REJECTS US MINERALS DEAL (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reveals SIGNIFICANT TENSION between Ukraine and the US, potentially impacting future aid negotiations.
• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT REMAINS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All prior information is still relevant.
• RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN INTENSIFIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): All prior information is still relevant.
• CLAIMED CAPTURE OF JAVELINS REQUIRES VERIFICATION (HIGH PRIORITY): All prior information is still relevant.
• UKRAINE REJECTS US-RUSSIA DEAL WITHOUT ITS INVOLVEMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All prior information is still relevant.
• RUSSIAN NAVAL INTELLIGENCE DAY (LOW PRIORITY): All prior information is still relevant.
• UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All prior information is still relevant.
• INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All prior information is still relevant.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR UROZHAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All prior information is still relevant.
• UKRAINIAN DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All prior information is still relevant.
• POSSIBLE KURSK INCURSION (HIGH PRIORITY, INTENSIFYING): All prior information is still relevant.
• CHERNOBYL DAMAGE A SERIOUS CONCERN (HIGH PRIORITY): All prior information is still relevant.
• CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETED (HIGH PRIORITY): All prior information is still relevant.
• POTENTIAL MAJOR UKRAINIAN SUCCESS IN POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): All prior information is still relevant.
• INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY IN POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY): All prior information is still relevant.
• EXTREME COLD IMPACTING OPERATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): All prior information is still relevant.
• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE ON AUSTRALIAN BUSHMASTER APC (REPORTED, Dnevnik Desantnika): All prior information is still relevant.
• CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF RUSSIAN TOS-2 "TOSOCHKA" (REPORTED, RBC-Ukraine, citing OSINT): All prior information is still relevant.

Updated Recommendations

1. RESPOND TO CIVILIAN DEATHS IN BELGOROD OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence on the circumstances of the attack.
   • Prepare for potential Russian retaliatory actions.
   • Consider using this attack in information operations to demonstrate Ukrainian capabilities.
   • Issue a statement expressing condolences for the civilian casualties, while reiterating Ukraine's right to defend itself.

2. VERIFY REPORTED LOSS OF WESTERN MILITARY AID (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Urgently investigate the reports of missing military aid.
   • Work with international partners to track and secure aid shipments.
   • Implement measures to prevent corruption and sabotage.

3. VERIFY REPORTS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK AND NOVOSYOLKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence from multiple sources to confirm or refute the reported Russian advances.
   • Assess the potential threat to Ukrainian positions and prepare for possible counter-offensive actions if necessary.

4. ADDRESS TENSION WITH US OVER MINERALS DEAL (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Engage in diplomatic discussions with the US to clarify Ukraine's position and find a mutually acceptable solution.
   • Explore alternative sources of funding and support.

5. CONTINUE AND EXPAND DRONE OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All prior information is still relevant.

6. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING): All prior information is still relevant.

7. VERIFY CLAIMED CAPTURE OF JAVELINS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All prior information is still relevant.

8. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): All prior information is still relevant.

9. SUPPORT UKRAINIAN DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All prior information is still relevant.

10. REINFORCE POSITIONS IN POKROVSK AND NOVOPAVLIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All prior information is still relevant.

11. MONITOR AND COUNTER RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR UROZHAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All prior information is still relevant.

12. ADDRESS CHERNOBYL SARCOPHAGUS DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All prior information is still relevant.

13. ADDRESS CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All prior information is still relevant.

14. ADAPT TO EXTREME COLD (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): All prior information is still relevant.

15. VERIFY ALL CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous priorities still in effect.

16. CONTINUE DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT AND ANALYSIS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All prior information is still relevant.

17. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE, with the KILLING OF CIVILIANS IN BELGOROD OBLAST, the REPORTED LOSS OF WESTERN MILITARY AID, the CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, and the TENSION WITH THE US OVER THE MINERALS DEAL representing the MOST URGENT AND CRITICAL CONCERNS. RESPONDING TO THE CIVILIAN DEATHS, VERIFYING KEY CLAIMS, ADDRESSING THE TENSION WITH THE US, and MAINTAINING A HIGH STATE OF READINESS are the HIGHEST PRIORITIES. All previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted to address the evolving situation. The INTENSIFYING CONFLICT IN THE KURSK REGION is a MAJOR CONCERN.