Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 16, 2025, 14:39 UTC

Changes and New Information (14:20 UTC - 14:39 UTC, Feb 16)

1. BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (14:36 UTC) reports a threat of ballistic weapons use from the east.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (14:27 UTC) reports a missile threat in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
   • Assessment: REINFORCES PREVIOUS WARNINGS. Ballistic missiles remain a HIGH AND IMMEDIATE THREAT. The specific mention of the EAST as the origin and DNIPROPETROVSK as a target area further refines the threat assessment.

2. UKRAINIAN GROUND FORCES REPORT (CONFIRMED, GENERAL STAFF):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (14:28 UTC) provides a detailed operational update. Key points:
     • 79 combat engagements since the start of the day.
     • Most intense fighting in the POKROVSK and NOVOPAVLIVKA directions.
     • Artillery and mortar attacks reported in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts.
     • Kupyansk Direction: 7 attacks, 3 ongoing.
     • Lyman Direction: 12 attacks, 4 ongoing.
     • Kramatorsk Direction: 7 attacks, 4 ongoing (near Chasiv Yar and Vasukivka).
     • Toretsk Direction: 8 attacks, 5 repelled, fighting continues.
     • Pokrovsk Direction: 19 ATTACKS, 18 repelled, 1 ongoing. EXTREMELY HIGH ACTIVITY.
     • Novopavlivka Direction: 13 attacks, 5 repelled, fighting continues.
     • Orikhiv Direction: 6 attacks, 3 ongoing.
     • No combat reported in the Prydniprovsky, Huliaipole, Kharkiv, and Siversk directions.
     • Kursk Operation: 2 attacks repelled, 4 ongoing. 320 artillery strikes, including 10 from MLRS. CONFIRMS SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY.
   • Assessment: This report provides a COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW of ground combat activity. POKROVSK and NOVOPAVLIVKA are CLEARLY THE HOTTEST ZONES. The KURSK operation is CONFIRMED AS ONGOING AND SIGNIFICANT, with heavy artillery fire. This aligns with earlier reports of activity in the Kursk region.

3. UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS (REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (14:30 UTC) shows video of 108th Territorial Defense Brigade drone operations near Bilohirya, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Claims recruitment is ongoing.
   • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (14:23 and 14:25 UTC) shows video of Kurt's unit receiving a large shipment of FPV drones, thanking the Dnipro military-civil administration. Also shows a video, saying "this is what it will be like", showing a man moving through a field.
   • СТАРШЕ ЭДДЫ (14:22 UTC) show video of a drone of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division shot down in a air-to-air combat.
   • STERNENKO (14:23 UTC) shows video of Ronin unit (65th Mechanized Brigade) targeting enemy logistics.
   • Assessment: CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED DRONE WARFARE. Multiple reports confirm EXTENSIVE UKRAINIAN USE OF DRONES for both reconnaissance and attack. The LARGE SHIPMENT OF FPV DRONES to Kurt's unit suggests INCREASING RELIANCE ON THIS TECHNOLOGY. The reports of drone operations against logistics target a vulnerability of any mechanized advance.

4. RUSSIAN ADVANCES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Рыбарь (14:12 UTC) reports on fighting for Urozhaine, with a map.
• Воин DV (14:35 UTC) reports that the Russian Armed Forces are advancing towards Urozhaine, pushing Ukrainian forces out of their strongholds.
• Assessment: CONFIRMATION OF INTENSE FIGHTING IN THE UROZHAINE AREA. Russian forces appear to be making a concerted effort to advance in this region.

5. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN LOSSES/MISMANAGEMENT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

• Два майора (14:33 UTC) discusses a claim of the practice of Ukrainian forces being bolstered with national battalions.
• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (14:36 UTC) reports, citing The Telegraph, that the UK accuses Ukraine of wasting Western weapons and equipment, using "Soviet-style tactics." Claims Russia now has more Javelins than the UK.
• Assessment: These reports are LIKELY PART OF A RUSSIAN INFORMATION OPERATION. While some elements may be based on fact (e.g., Ukraine may indeed be struggling with efficient use of Western weapons), the overall narrative is designed to UNDERMINE SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE, SOW DISCORD AMONG ALLIES, and PORTRAY UKRAINIAN FORCES AS INCOMPETENT. The claims of Russia having more Javelins than the UK are HIGHLY SUSPECT.

6. SAUDI ARABIA DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• РБК-Україна (14:25 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (14:32 UTC) report that a Ukrainian government delegation has arrived in Saudi Arabia to prepare for a visit by President Zelensky.
• Assessment: This CONFIRMS UKRAINIAN DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS and Saudi Arabia's potential role as a mediator. This is PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT given previous reports of potential US-Russia talks in Munich. Ukraine is ACTIVELY SEEKING TO INFLUENCE THE NEGOTIATING LANDSCAPE.

7. CLAIMED DAMAGE IN BELGOROD (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

• ТАСС (14:28) states that the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked four settlements in the Belgorod region, and that one man was injured.
• Два майора (14:08) reports damage and one injury from drone attacks in Belgorod Oblast. Lists specific locations: Repyakhovka (Krasnoyaruzhsky District), Urazovo (Valuysky District), Valuyki, and Tserkovny (Belgorodsky District).
• Assessment: The claim of damage in Russia due to Ukrainian actions is CONSISTENT with the pattern. VERIFICATION of the extent of damage and casualties is IMPORTANT.

Updated Situation Summary

• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING): The threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, specifically targeting Dnipropetrovsk, remains EXTREMELY HIGH.
• INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): The General Staff report confirms EXTREMELY HIGH LEVELS OF COMBAT ACTIVITY, particularly in the POKROVSK and NOVOPAVLIVKA directions. KURSK OPERATION is CONFIRMED as ongoing and significant, with heavy artillery fire.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR UROZHAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Russian forces appear to be making a concerted effort to advance near Urozhaine.
• DRONE WARFARE INTENSIFIES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Multiple reports confirm EXTENSIVE UKRAINIAN USE OF DRONES, with a significant influx of FPV drones.
• RUSSIAN INFORMATION OPERATIONS CONTINUE (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Russian sources continue to promote narratives aimed at undermining support for Ukraine and portraying Ukrainian forces negatively.
• UKRAINIAN DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Ukraine is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts, with a delegation in Saudi Arabia preparing for a potential visit by President Zelensky.
• POSSIBLE KURSK INCURSION (HIGH PRIORITY, INTENSIFYING): All prior information is still relevant.
• CHERNOBYL DAMAGE A SERIOUS CONCERN (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.
• CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETED (HIGH PRIORITY): All prior information is still relevant.
• POTENTIAL MAJOR UKRAINIAN SUCCESS IN POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): All prior information is still relevant.
• INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY IN POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed and intensified.
• DRONE WARFARE REMAINS CENTRAL (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed and intensified.
• EXTREME COLD IMPACTING OPERATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.
• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE ON AUSTRALIAN BUSHMASTER APC (REPORTED, Dnevnik Desantnika): Remains unchanged.
• CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF RUSSIAN TOS-2 "TOSOCHKA" (REPORTED, RBC-Ukraine, citing OSINT): Remains unchanged.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME ALERT FOR BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REGARDING BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT REMAIN IN EFFECT.
   • Specifically, focus air defense resources on protecting DNIPROPETROVSK and other areas identified as potential targets.

2. REINFORCE POSITIONS IN POKROVSK AND NOVOPAVLIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Given the INTENSE FIGHTING reported in these areas, IMMEDIATELY assess the need for reinforcements, supplies, and fire support.
   • Prioritize defensive measures against potential Russian advances.

3. MONITOR AND COUNTER RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR UROZHAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy reconnaissance assets to assess the scale and direction of the Russian advance.
   • Prepare counter-offensive measures if necessary.

4. CONTINUE AND EXPAND DRONE OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Maximize the use of available drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks, particularly FPV drones.
   • Prioritize targets that disrupt Russian logistics, command and control, and armored vehicles.

5. COUNTER RUSSIAN INFORMATION OPERATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Proactively disseminate accurate information about the situation on the ground.
   • Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses.
   • Counter Russian narratives aimed at undermining support for Ukraine.

6. SUPPORT UKRAINIAN DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Provide intelligence and analysis to support Ukrainian diplomatic initiatives, particularly in Saudi Arabia.
   • Coordinate with allies to ensure a unified approach to negotiations.

7. ADDRESS CHERNOBYL SARCOPHAGUS DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains unchanged.

8. ADDRESS CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains unchanged.

9. ADAPT TO EXTREME COLD (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains unchanged.

10. VERIFY ALL CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous priorities still in effect.

11. CONTINUE DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT AND ANALYSIS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains unchanged.

12. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The IMMEDIATE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT, the INTENSE FIGHTING IN POKROVSK AND NOVOPAVLIVKA, and the RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR UROZHAINE are the MOST URGENT CONCERNS. MAINTAINING HIGH ALERT, REINFORCING KEY POSITIONS, and COUNTERING RUSSIAN ADVANCES are TOP PRIORITIES. All previous recommendations remain in effect, with adjustments to prioritize the most urgent developments. The confirmed ongoing operation in Kursk further increases tensions.