Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 16, 2025, 12:09 UTC

Changes and New Information (11:10 UTC - 12:09 UTC, Feb 16)

1. RUSSIAN FPV DRONES DESTROY GERMAN-MADE BRIDGE LAYERS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, GRAPHIC CONTENT): No Changes.

2. RUSSIAN MLRS OPERATIONS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, GRAPHIC CONTENT): No Changes.

3. RUSSIAN COMMENT ON PESKOV'S REMARKS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): No Changes.

4. RUSSIAN CLAIMS ABOUT GERMAN POLITICIAN (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, UNVERIFIED): No Changes.

5. CLAIMED VIDEO OF RUSSIAN SOLDIER (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): No Changes.

6. RUSSIAN CLAIM OF KILLING UKRAINIAN IN KURSK REGION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, GRAPHIC CONTENT, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): No Changes.

7. UKRAINIAN CLAIM OF PISHCHANE LIBERATION, "TURNING POINT" NEAR POKROVSK (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, GRAPHIC CONTENT):

   • STERNENKO (11:25 UTC) echoes the claim of Pishchane liberation and Russian forces being pushed back from nearby settlements, citing OSG "Khortytsia" spokesperson Viktor Tregubov. Highlights the effective cooperation of Ukrainian drone units.
   • Assessment: REINFORCES PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT. Multiple Ukrainian sources are now confirming this claim. The emphasis on drone cooperation is significant.

8. UKRAINIAN MAP OF POKROVSK AREA (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• STERNENKO (11:25 UTC) posted a map of the area.
• Assessment: The map is consistent with the claim of a turning point near Pokrovsk.

9. CLAIMED RUSSIAN STRIKE ON MYKOLAIV THERMAL POWER PLANT (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (11:51 UTC) and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (11:41 UTC) confirm the strike, citing Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal. 46,000 subscribers are reportedly without heat.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMED. Both Ukrainian and Russian-aligned sources now report the attack, although attribution of responsibility may differ. This is a SIGNIFICANT ATTACK ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.

10. RUSSIAN CLAIM OF SHOOTING DOWN AIRCRAFT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): No Changes.

11. RUSSIAN MOD CLAIMS TO REPEL UKRAINIAN INCURSION, INFLICT HEAVY LOSSES IN KURSK REGION (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): * Colonelcassad (11:51 UTC) reiterates the Russian MoD claims, providing specific figures for claimed Ukrainian losses (over 61,010 personnel, 365 tanks, etc.) and listing specific Ukrainian units allegedly involved. Also claims to have hit 5 Ukrainian UAV control points. * Assessment: REMAINS HIGHLY SUSPICIOUS. While the specific details add to the narrative, they do not increase its credibility. The claimed numbers are STILL IMPLAUSIBLE. The mention of specific units and UAV control points should be noted for further investigation, but DO NOT ASSUME ACCURACY.

12. RUSSIAN CLAIMS ABOUT KURSK DIRECTION LOSSES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, GRAPHIC CONTENT):

    • MoD Russia, Colonelcassad (11:10 UTC, 11:51 UTC) Posts about total loses of the Ukrainian army during the entire military operation.
    • Assessment: Likely Propaganda.

13. RUSSIAN CLAIMS ABOUT KURSK DIRECTION LOSSES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС (11:50 UTC) claims, citing the Russian MoD, that over 290 Ukrainian personnel, two armored personnel carriers, and five combat vehicles were lost in the Kursk direction in the past 24 hours.
    • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION, but is a more plausible figure than the total losses claimed earlier. Still treat with skepticism.

14. RUSSIAN CLAIMS ABOUT SHOOTING DOWN UKRAINIAN AIRCRAFT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • MoD Russia (11:38 UTC) posted another report of shooting down the same aircraft.
    • Assessment: Very likely false.

15. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DRONE STRIKES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Дневник Десантника (11:34 UTC) claims a Russian drone attacked a bus on the Polohy-Chapayevka road.
    • Kadyrov_95 (11:16 UTC) shows footage of the destruction of an ammunition depot and an 82-mm mortar.
    • MoD Russia (11:38 UTC) posts a video of the elimination of a UAV command post.
    • ТАСС (11:41 UTC) posts a video of the destruction of a "Baba-Yaga" UAV.
    • Assessment: The reports show that Russian forces continue to use drones to target Ukrainian positions.

16. UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF DRONE STRIKES (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (11:13 UTC) posts a video of a quadcopter and vehicles getting targeted.
    • ОТУ "Харків" (11:33 UTC) reports Ukrainian drone operators from the 113th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade engaging Russian forces in the Vovchansk direction.
    • Assessment: The reports show that Ukrainian forces continue to use drones to target Russian positions.

17. POTENTIAL US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS IN SAUDI ARABIA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

    • Два майора (11:50 UTC) reports, citing Bloomberg, that a meeting between US and Russian officials is planned in Saudi Arabia next week to prepare for a potential Trump-Putin summit to discuss ending the conflict in Ukraine. Claims Putin is assembling a team including Yuri Ushakov and Sergey Naryshkin. Suggests Kirill Dmitriev may be a key intermediary with the Trump team.
    • Assessment: POTENTIALLY HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT. If true, this represents a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT in the diplomatic landscape. EXTREME PRIORITY to verify this report through US and Saudi sources. Assess the credibility of Bloomberg as a source for this information. The named individuals (Ushakov, Naryshkin, Dmitriev) are plausible participants in such talks.

18. RUSSIAN REPORT OF AIR STRIKE IN NIKOLAEV (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Дневник Десантника (11:33 UTC) reports Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian UAV assembly workshops, energy facilities, and military airfields.
    • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (11:41 UTC) provides images of the aftermath of a strike on a thermal power plant in Mykolaiv, showing firefighting efforts.
    • Assessment: Supports the previous reports of a strike on a thermal power plant in Mykolaiv. The claim of strikes on UAV assembly workshops and military airfields REQUIRES SEPARATE VERIFICATION.

19. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND FIGHTING IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

    • Военкор Котенок (11:38 UTC) provides a detailed report on the "Bogatyrskoye direction," claiming:
      • Intense fighting in the central and southeastern parts of Konstantynopol, with control shifting "by houses."
      • Ukrainian forces are in a worse situation in Ulakly, with Russian forces having entered, expanded control, and fortified.
      • A Ukrainian stronghold on the road between Dachnoye and Ulakly is reportedly surrounded.
      • Russian forces have reportedly "broken through" into Novoselka (west of Velyka Novosilka) and are fighting for the settlement.
      • Intense fighting in Novoocheretovate, with Russian forces advancing and Ukrainian forces attempting to hold the village and push them back across the river.
    • Assessment: REQUIRES EXTREME CAUTION AND VERIFICATION. This is a DETAILED, PRO-RUSSIAN ACCOUNT of the situation. The claims of advances and control MUST BE CORROBORATED by independent sources. The claim of a breakthrough in Novoselka is PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT and requires IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. The reported fighting in Konstantynopol, Ulakly, and Novoocheretovate suggests INTENSE COMBAT OPERATIONS in these areas.

20. CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF RUSSIAN TOS-2 (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (11:21 UTC) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (11:39 UTC) report the destruction of a Russian TOS-2 "Tosochka" heavy flamethrower system in the Pokrovsk direction, claiming it is the first such loss. Provide images of a destroyed vehicle.
    • Assessment: POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT. If verified, this represents the loss of a HIGH-VALUE ASSET for Russia. HIGH PRIORITY to verify the authenticity of the images, geolocate the event, and assess the type of weapon system involved.

21. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN LOSSES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (11:21 UTC) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (11:39 UTC) publish several photos of the same destroyed vehicle.
    • Assessment: Confirmed that a vehicle was destroyed.

22. UKRAINIAN CLAIMS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • РБК-Україна (11:43 UTC) reports Zelensky stating that he believes Putin is preparing an attack on NATO countries next year, with Russia preparing 15 divisions this year for training in Belarus.
    • Оперативний ЗСУ (12:03 UTC) posts a video claiming to show North Korean soldiers retreating under Ukrainian drone attack near Nikolsky in the Kursk region. The video caption claims significant losses inflicted by Ukrainian drones.
    • Assessment: The Zelensky claim is a MAJOR STRATEGIC WARNING and requires careful consideration. The claim of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region REQUIRES EXTREME VERIFICATION and is HIGHLY UNLIKELY to be accurate. The video, if authentic, would show fighting in the Kursk region, but the identification of the soldiers as North Korean is ALMOST CERTAINLY FALSE and part of Ukrainian propaganda.

23. UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF DRONE OPERATIONS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України (11:58 UTC) reports that over the past week (Feb 10-16), Ukrainian air defenses have shot down over 852 enemy air attack assets, including 6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 1 Kh-101 cruise missile, 1 guided air missile, 479 Shahed attack drones, 255 reconnaissance drones, and 110 other types of drones. Also reports 130 tactical aviation sorties, including air defense, ground attack, and reconnaissance missions. Claims strikes on enemy command posts, equipment concentrations, and personnel.
    • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (12:02 UTC) posts a video, it highlights the presence of religious items on military equipment, potentially indicating morale-related issues.
    • STERNENKO (12:08 UTC) posts multiple videos of Ukrainian drone teams.
    • Assessment: These reports highlight the INTENSITY OF AIR AND DRONE WARFARE. The claimed numbers of downed enemy assets REQUIRE CAREFUL ASSESSMENT as they may be inflated for propaganda purposes. However, the reports CONFIRM THE CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD USE OF DRONES AND MISSILES by both sides. The reports on Ukrainian tactical aviation sorties are SIGNIFICANT and suggest ACTIVE UKRAINIAN AIR OPERATIONS.

24. RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON UKRAINIAN CITY (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • РБК-Україна (11:43 UTC) reports that Russian forces shelled the city of Bilytske in the Pokrovsk district, damaging 6 multi-story buildings, an administrative building, a shop, and a power line. Two people were reportedly killed.
    • Assessment: This confirms the ongoing conflict.

Updated Situation Summary

• POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN SUCCESS NEAR POKROVSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of the liberation of Pishchane and a claimed "turning point" in the Pokrovsk direction, now supported by multiple Ukrainian sources. URGENT VERIFICATION AND RESPONSE NEEDED.
• RUSSIAN FPV DRONES TARGET UKRAINIAN BRIDGE LAYERS (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Claimed destruction of German-made Biber bridge layers in the Kursk region. VERIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT OF IMPACT ON UKRAINIAN BRIDGING CAPABILITIES NEEDED.
• RUSSIAN MOD CLAIMS MASSIVE UKRAINIAN LOSSES IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION, LIKELY DISINFORMATION): Claims of repelling a Ukrainian incursion and inflicting over 61,000 casualties and destroying significant equipment, reiterated by Russian sources. HIGHLY SUSPICIOUS AND REQUIRES THOROUGH INVESTIGATION. More plausible (but still unverified) claims of 290 casualties in the past 24 hours also reported.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING AND CLAIMS OF ADVANCES/SUCCESSES ON BOTH SIDES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING VERIFICATION): Numerous reports requiring continuous verification, including claimed Russian advances in Konstantynopol, Ulakly, and Novoocheretovate.
• RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH IN NOVOSILKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of a successful Russian mechanized assault and the establishment of positions within the village. URGENT VERIFICATION AND RESPONSE NEEDED.
• POTENTIAL US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS IN SAUDI ARABIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of planned talks aimed at ending the conflict and organizing a Trump-Putin summit. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
• GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER ALLEGEDLY CALLS FOR STRIKES INSIDE RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of a potentially significant escalation in rhetoric and policy.
• REPORTS OF LOW MORALE AND PSYCHOLOGICAL DISTRESS AMONG RUSSIAN SOLDIERS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ASSESSMENT): Videos and reports suggesting potential vulnerabilities within Russian forces.
• UKRAINIAN FPV DRONE OPERATIONS CONTINUE TO BE EFFECTIVE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Multiple reports of successful strikes on Russian equipment and personnel.
• RUSSIAN FPV DRONE OPERATIONS CONTINUE TO BE EFFECTIVE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Multiple reports of successful strikes on Ukrainian equipment and personnel.
• KREMLIN HARDENS POSITION ON NEGOTIATIONS (MODERATE PRIORITY, ONGOING): Statements indicating distrust of the West and a focus on Ukraine's "lack of sovereignty."
• CONFIRMED STRIKE ON MYKOLAIV THERMAL POWER PLANT (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Both Ukrainian and Russian-aligned sources confirm the attack, causing significant disruption to heat supply.
• CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF RUSSIAN TOS-2 (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Ukrainian sources report the destruction of a TOS-2 heavy flamethrower system in the Pokrovsk direction.
• UKRAINIAN REPORTS OF INTENSE AIR AND DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ASSESSMENT): Claims of significant numbers of downed Russian air assets and active Ukrainian air operations.
• CLAIMED NORTH KOREAN SOLDIERS IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION, ALMOST CERTAINLY FALSE): Ukrainian reports of North Korean soldiers being targeted by drones. HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO BE ACCURATE.
• ZELENSKY WARNS OF POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ATTACK ON NATO (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ASSESSMENT): Claims of Russian preparations for an attack on NATO countries next year.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The situation in the Odessa Region is still dangerous.

Updated Recommendations

1. CONFIRM AND RESPOND TO POKROVSK SITUATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Same as before.

2. ASSESS IMPACT OF CLAIMED BRIDGE LAYER DESTRUCTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Same as before.

3. INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN INCURSION IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Same as before.

4. CONTINUE MONITORING AND VERIFYING REPORTS OF FIGHTING (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Maintain continuous surveillance of all reported areas of fighting, particularly Konstantynopol, Ulakly, Novoocheretovate, and the Pokrovsk direction.
   • Use multiple sources (satellite imagery, drone feeds, signal intelligence, human intelligence) to verify claims of advances and control.
   • Assess the intensity of fighting and the potential for escalation.

5. ASSESS RUSSIAN MORALE AND POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue to analyze reports and videos suggesting low morale and psychological distress among Russian soldiers.
   • Identify potential indicators of declining morale, such as desertion rates, surrender appeals, and expressions of dissent.
   • Assess the potential impact of low morale on Russian operational effectiveness.

6. MAINTAIN AND ENHANCE UKRAINIAN FPV DRONE CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue to prioritize the production, deployment, and effective use of FPV drones.
   • Develop countermeasures against Russian electronic warfare and physical defenses against drones.
   • Train and equip more drone operators to increase operational capacity.

7. MONITOR RUSSIAN FPV DRONE CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Track Russian drone activity and identify potential launch sites and tactics.
   • Develop countermeasures against Russian FPV drone tactics, including exploring the use of electronic warfare and physical defenses.
   • Assess the effectiveness of Russian drone strikes and their impact on Ukrainian operations.

8. VERIFY POTENTIAL US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use diplomatic channels to confirm whether a meeting between US and Russian officials is planned in Saudi Arabia.
   • Obtain information on the agenda, participants, and objectives of any such meeting.
   • Assess the potential implications of these talks for the conflict in Ukraine.

9. CONFIRM AND ASSESS RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH IN NOVOSILKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy reconnaissance assets to confirm whether Russian forces have broken through into Novoselka.
   • Assess the extent of Russian control within the village and the intensity of fighting.
   • Prepare for potential Ukrainian counterattacks to retake the village.

10. VERIFY CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF RUSSIAN TOS-2 (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Use all available intelligence sources to verify the authenticity of the images and reports claiming the destruction of a Russian TOS-2 heavy flamethrower system.
    • Geolocate the event and determine the type of weapon system involved.
    • Assess the impact of this loss on Russian capabilities in the Pokrovsk direction.

11. ASSESS UKRAINIAN AIR AND DRONE WARFARE CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

    • Carefully evaluate Ukrainian claims of shooting down significant numbers of Russian air assets.
    • Cross-reference these claims with other intelligence sources to assess their accuracy.
    • Monitor Ukrainian air operations and assess their effectiveness.

12. DISCREDIT CLAIM OF NORTH KOREAN SOLDIERS IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Counter Ukrainian propaganda claiming the presence of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region.
    • Highlight the unlikelihood of this claim and present evidence to the contrary.
    • Expose the video as likely staged or misidentified.

13. ASSESS ZELENSKY'S WARNING OF POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ATTACK ON NATO (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ASSESSMENT):

    • Carefully consider Zelensky's claim that Russia is preparing for an attack on NATO countries.
    • Assess the credibility of this claim based on available intelligence.
    • Monitor Russian military activities and deployments for any indications of preparations for such an attack.

14. MAINTAIN AND ENHANCE AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Given the confirmed strike on the Mykolaiv thermal power plant and continued reports of air and drone activity, maintaining and enhancing air defense capabilities remains crucial.

15. MONITOR SITUATION IN ODESSA REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY): Same as before.

16. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN SUCCESS NEAR POKROVSK, the CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN BRIDGE LAYERS, and the CLAIMED RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH IN NOVOSILKA are the MOST URGENT ISSUES requiring immediate attention. The RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF A REPULSED INCURSION AND MASSIVE UKRAINIAN LOSSES are HIGHLY SUSPICIOUS and require THOROUGH INVESTIGATION. The POTENTIAL US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS represent a POTENTIALLY MAJOR DEVELOPMENT. RAPID RESPONSE, PROACTIVE DIPLOMACY, AND EFFECTIVE INFORMATION WARFARE remain essential.