Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 16, 2025, 07:09 UTC
Changes and New Information (06:39 UTC - 07:09 UTC, Feb 16)
SOUTHERN FRONT UPDATE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Sili Oboroni Pivdnya Ukrayini (06:40 UTC) reports over ten Russian assaults along the entire southern frontline, with the most on the Prydniprovsky direction. Russian forces retreated with significant losses in personnel and equipment. 213 shelling attacks using nearly 1,000 munitions were recorded in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Kherson oblasts. Almost 200 FPV drone strikes and over 100 fragmentation munitions were dropped.
Mykolaiv Oblast: 9 Shahed-136 drones shot down. Damage to critical infrastructure, apartment buildings, shops, a dining establishment, and office spaces. A 64-year-old man was injured.
Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts: Russian aviation strikes using guided bombs.
Ukrainian forces inflicted losses: 83 personnel, 2 artillery systems, 11 vehicles (including a boat on a trailer), 9 boats, 2 quad bikes, a communication antenna, 3 Starlink terminals. 14 dugouts and an observation post were destroyed.
Sili Oboroni Pivdnya Ukrayini (06:40 UTC) shows a map of the Orikhiv Direction. Occupiers attacked twice in the direction of Novoandriivka.
Sili Oboroni Pivdnya Ukrayini (06:40 UTC) shows a map of the Prydniprovskyi Direction. Russians made eight unsuccessful attempts to advance.
Assessment: This confirms CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING across the southern front, with a focus on the PRYDNIPROVSKY DIRECTION. Russian forces suffered SIGNIFICANT LOSSES but continue to shell front-line settlements and utilize drone warfare extensively. The CONFIRMED DAMAGE AND CASUALTY in Mykolaiv Oblast is NOTEWORTHY. The reported Ukrainian successes in destroying equipment and infrastructure indicate EFFECTIVE DEFENSIVE ACTIONS. The use of GUIDED BOMBS by Russian aviation is a CONTINUING THREAT.
TASS (06:44 UTC) reports damage to a critical infrastructure object in Mykolaiv, citing the regional military administration head, Vitaly Kim. A fire broke out.
Assessment: This CORROBORATES the Ukrainian report of damage in Mykolaiv, confirming the impact on critical infrastructure.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:
Operativnyi ZSU (06:49 UTC): US assures Ukraine of its presence at negotiations with Russia, according to WSJ. US Secretary of State Rubio reportedly told Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiza that Washington does not intend to isolate Ukraine. Peskov stated that Moscow understands Ukraine's participation but considers Washington its "main counterpart."
РБК-Україна (06:49 UTC) The number of battles during the day has doubled on the front: updated maps from the General Staff. During the past day, 261 combat clashes were recorded at the front. This is more than twice as much as the day before. In the Pokrovsky direction, Ukrainian defenders stopped 71 attacks. Yesterday, 15 combat clashes took place in the Kursk direction, the enemy carried out 33 airstrikes, dropping 49 guided bombs.
РБК-Україна (06:49 UTC) shows maps of the military operations across the whole front.
Updated Situation Summary
INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN FRONT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian assaults repelled with significant losses, but extensive shelling and drone attacks continue. Damage and a casualty reported in Mykolaiv Oblast.
MYKOLAIV CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE HIT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Both Ukrainian and Russian sources confirm damage to critical infrastructure in Mykolaiv.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The Kyiv Oblast drone attacks, Zelensky-Trump team communication, the potential Pokrovsk offensive slowdown, ammunition deliveries, and all other previous key developments REMAIN CRITICAL FACTORS.
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED READINESS ACROSS SOUTHERN FRONT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Reinforce defenses along the Prydniprovsky direction, given the concentration of Russian assaults.
Continue to counter Russian shelling and drone attacks, prioritizing the protection of civilians and critical infrastructure.
Gather intelligence on Russian troop movements and potential future attack vectors.
Assess and repair damage to critical infrastructure in Mykolaiv Oblast.
Provide medical care to the injured individual in Mykolaiv.
ADDRESS KYIV OBLAST DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations remain in effect.
CONTINUE ENGAGEMENT WITH TRUMP TEAM (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations remain in effect.
MONITOR POKROVSK SITUATION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS): All previous recommendations remain in effect.
INTEGRATE NEW AMMUNITION DELIVERIES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations remain in effect.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect. The IMMEDIATE PRIORITIES are MAINTAINING HEIGHTENED READINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRONT and ADDRESSING THE DAMAGE IN MYKOLAIV.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRONT and the CONFIRMED DAMAGE TO CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE IN MYKOLAIV are the MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. CONTINUED VIGILANCE, RAPID RESPONSE CAPABILITIES, AND EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING are crucial. The HIGH NUMBER OF REPORTED COMBAT CLASHES (261) indicates a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION in overall combat activity.
