Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 16, 2025, 05:39 UTC
Changes and New Information (05:09 UTC - 05:39 UTC, Feb 16)
ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION BOMBARDMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (05:10 UTC) reports 227 Russian strikes on 12 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region within the last 24 hours. These include:
4 airstrikes on Hulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Verkhnya Tersa, and Kopani.
96 drone attacks on various settlements, including Hulyaipole, Orikhiv, and Novodarivka.
6 MLRS attacks on Kamyanske, Hulyaipole, and Novodarivka.
121 artillery strikes on various settlements, including Kamyanske, Hulyaipole, and Novodarivka.
10 reports of damage to apartments and private houses. No civilian casualties reported.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS a HIGH INTENSITY OF RUSSIAN ATTACKS in the Zaporizhzhia region, using a COMBINATION OF AIR POWER, DRONES, MLRS, AND ARTILLERY. The targeting of multiple settlements suggests a BROAD OFFENSIVE EFFORT to weaken Ukrainian defenses and potentially prepare for a ground advance. The lack of reported civilian casualties is FORTUNATE, but the damage to infrastructure is SIGNIFICANT.
NIKOPOL AND MARHANETS SHELLED (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration (05:30 UTC) reports Russian heavy artillery shelling of Nikopol and the Marhanets community during the evening and late night. Damage is being assessed, but no casualties were reported. Other areas of the Dnipropetrovsk region experienced air raid alerts, but no attacks.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS continued Russian shelling targeting the areas of Nikopol and Marhanets, likely aiming to disrupt Ukrainian positions and potentially interdict movement across the Dnipro River. The lack of reported casualties is POSITIVE, but the ongoing attacks MAINTAIN A HIGH LEVEL OF THREAT in the region.
Colonelcassad (05:33 UTC) provides information and an image of the new Russian 2S44 "Giatsint-K" wheeled self-propelled artillery system, claiming deployment in the "Special Military Operation" zone. Key features include:
152mm caliber.
High degree of automation, with a claimed deployment time of 2-3 minutes.
470 horsepower engine.
Armored cabin resistant to 155mm NATO ammunition fragments.
Claimed advantages over tracked systems include faster road movement, quicker repositioning, and lighter weight.
Developed based on combat experience with the "Malva" system.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS the deployment of a NEW RUSSIAN ARTILLERY SYSTEM to the conflict zone. The claimed capabilities, particularly the RAPID DEPLOYMENT TIME and WHEELED MOBILITY, suggest an effort to INCREASE THE RESPONSIVENESS AND SURVIVABILITY of Russian artillery. The armored cabin highlights the threat posed by Ukrainian counter-battery fire. This development POTENTIALLY ENHANCES RUSSIAN FIREPOWER and requires ADJUSTMENT OF UKRAINIAN COUNTER-BATTERY TACTICS.
Воин DV (05:35 UTC) provides video footage purportedly showing FPV drone strikes by the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group against Ukrainian mortar crews in the South Donetsk direction.
Assessment: This confirms the continuous use of drones.
UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF CASUALTY REPORT (UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (05:35 UTC) provides an update on estimated Russian combat losses from February 24, 2022, to February 16, 2025.
Assessment: This is a STANDARD REPORT from the Ukrainian General Staff, providing their assessment of Russian losses. These figures should be treated with CAUTION, as they are likely inflated for propaganda purposes. However, they provide a general indication of the scale of the conflict and the attrition of Russian forces.
SBERBANK DISRUPTION WIDESPREAD (CONFIRMED):
ТАСС* (05:18 UTC) reports problems throughout Russia.
Assessment: This reinforces the evaluation that it may affect Russia's logistics.
KALLAS ON THE MUNICH CONFERENCE (RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (05:32 UTC) reports that Kallas claims that civilians are not dying in Russia.
Assessment: This may affect international support.
Updated Situation Summary
INTENSE RUSSIAN BOMBARDMENT OF ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): 227 strikes on 12 settlements, using a variety of weapons systems. This indicates a MAJOR OFFENSIVE EFFORT.
CONTINUED SHELLING OF NIKOPOL AND MARHANETS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reinforces the threat to Ukrainian positions near the Dnipro River.
DEPLOYMENT OF NEW RUSSIAN ARTILLERY SYSTEM (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The "Giatsint-K" wheeled self-propelled gun POTENTIALLY ENHANCES RUSSIAN FIREPOWER and requires ADJUSTED UKRAINIAN COUNTER-BATTERY TACTICS.
SBERBANK DISRUPTION (REPORTED): May affect Russia's logistics, especially if it is widespread.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The reported Russian advances, continued airstrikes, potential negotiations without Ukrainian involvement, and the long-term threat assessment all remain CRITICAL FACTORS.
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: The priorities and actions outlined in the previous update remain FULLY IN EFFECT.
ADDRESS INCREASED RUSSIAN ACTIVITY IN ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain a high state of alert across the Zaporizhzhia region.
Prioritize air defense and counter-battery fire to mitigate the impact of Russian attacks.
Reinforce defensive positions and prepare for potential ground offensives.
Increase reconnaissance to monitor Russian troop movements and identify potential attack axes.
COUNTERACT NEW RUSSIAN ARTILLERY SYSTEM (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Gather intelligence on the deployment and operational patterns of the "Giatsint-K" system.
Develop and implement counter-battery tactics specifically designed to address the system's rapid deployment and mobility.
Prioritize targeting of the "Giatsint-K" system with long-range precision weapons.
CONTINUE MONITORING SBERBANK DISRUPTION:
This may hinder logistics.
MONITOR KALLAS' WORDS:
They may hinder international support.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN BOMBARDMENT of the Zaporizhzhia region and the deployment of the NEW "GIATSINT-K" ARTILLERY SYSTEM represent SIGNIFICANT THREATS. MAINTAINING VIGILANCE, REINFORCING DEFENSES, and ADJUSTING TACTICS are CRUCIAL. All previous key developments and recommendations REMAIN IN EFFECT.
