Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 15, 2025, 18:40 UTC

Changes and New Information (18:11 UTC - 18:40 UTC)

1. KELLOGG DEFENDS TRUMP-PUTIN CALL (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (18:11 UTC) reports Kellogg defending Trump's call with Putin, calling it useful and emphasizing the need for contact with all sides.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES THE TRUMP CAMP'S POSITION on engagement with Russia.

2. KELLOGG ON CRIMEA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (18:11 UTC) reports Kellogg stating, "We've already mentioned the invasion of Crimea today. But we shouldn't blame ourselves for everything." He also claims that the previous statements were just slogans, and that the current administration would have a strategy.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES THE CRITICISM OF PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATION.

3. REPORTED CLASHES NEAR KHERSON (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (18:12 UTC) reports clashes near Kherson, claiming Russian forces prevented US Navy SEALs and other foreign troops from landing on the Russian side of the Dnipro River.
   • Assessment: This claim REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The presence of US Navy SEALs would be a MAJOR ESCALATION, and this report should be treated with EXTREME CAUTION until independently confirmed.

4. RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN ATV (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (18:13 UTC) reports that Russian forces destroyed an ATV.
   • Assessment: Confirmation of CONTINUED OPERATIONS.

5. LOGVINOVO (HISTORICAL CONTEXT, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Kotsnews (18:14 UTC) posts a historical photo and caption about Logvinovo 10 years ago, during the Debaltseve pocket battle.
   • Assessment: This is NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO CURRENT OPERATIONS but provides historical context about a strategically important location and a previous major battle.

6. KELLOGG ON US WAR AIMS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (18:14 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСУ (18:16 UTC) report Kellogg stating that a victory like in World War II will probably not happen. He emphasizes stopping the bloodshed first.
   • Assessment: This indicates a SHIFT IN US WAR AIMS, prioritizing a ceasefire over a decisive Ukrainian victory. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT that could significantly impact Ukraine's strategic options.

7. ZELENSKY MEETS WITH FINNISH PRESIDENT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Zelenskiy / Official (18:15 UTC) and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (18:30 UTC) report Zelensky's meeting with the Finnish President, discussing sanctions, defense support, and long-range weapons production.
   • Assessment: This highlights CONTINUED DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS and FINNISH SUPPORT for Ukraine. The focus on long-range weapons is significant.

8. RUSSIAN VIDEO ON KHERSON CLASHES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (18:15 UTC) posts a video related to the claimed clashes near Kherson, with the same narrative about preventing US Navy SEALs and other foreign troops from landing.
   • Assessment: STILL REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The video itself does not definitively prove the presence of US Navy SEALs.

9. KELLOG ON CONCESSIONS (REINFORCED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (18:20 UTC) reports Kellogg stating, "We want a successful, sovereign Ukraine. And for that, we have to stop Russian aggression." He also says he "doesn't know" what the peace plan will be, as the decision is up to Trump.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES THE AMBIVALENCE in the Trump camp's position. While stating a desire for a sovereign Ukraine, the lack of a clear plan and the emphasis on Trump's decision-making create uncertainty.

10. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • STERNENKO (18:20 UTC) reports on Ukrainian forces successfully targeting Russian equipment with drones.
    • Assessment: Confirmation of CONTINUED OPERATIONS.

11. CIVILIANS FORCED TO BUILD DEFENSES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Colonelcassad (18:22 UTC) reports that, under the guise of evacuation, Ukrainian forces are forcing civilians to dig trenches and construct defensive lines to the north and east of Krasny Liman.
    • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

12. RUSSIA DEMANDS INTERNATIONAL REACTION (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Воин DV (18:32 UTC) reports that Russia is demanding an international reaction concerning the attack on the Channel One team.
    • Assessment: Confirmation of INCREASED TENSION.

13. HUNGARIAN PM (REPORTED):

    • Воин DV (18:32 UTC) reports Hungarian PM Orban's statements.
    • Assessment: Confirmation of DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS.

14. UKRAINIAN FORCES REPORT ON PRISONERS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (18:33) reports on Ukrainian forces taking prisoners during an operation. * Assessment: Confirmation of CONTINUED OPERATIONS.

15. LITHUANIAN DEFENSE MINISTER (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): * РБК-Україна (18:35 UTC) reports the Lithuanian Defense Minister stating that nobody believes in a stable agreement with Putin. * Assessment: Confirmation of DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS.

16. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): * Оперативний ЗСУ (18:28 UTC) reports on successful Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian BMP-2 and BMP-3 vehicles. * Assessment: Confirmation of CONTINUED OPERATIONS.

17. UKRAINIAN FOREIGN MINISTER (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (18:30) reports that the UK foreign minister states that Putin only wants a capitulation.
    • Assessment: REINFORCEMENT.

18. TRUMP REPRESENTATIVE (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

    • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (18:30) reports that Kellogg says that a victory as in WW2 will not happen.
    • Assessment: REINFORCEMENT.

Updated Situation Summary

• POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR ESCALATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, UNVERIFIED): The claim of Russian forces clashing with US Navy SEALs near Kherson REQUIRES IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION. This could be a MAJOR ESCALATION or disinformation.
• SHIFT IN US WAR AIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Kellogg's statements about a victory like in World War II not being likely and the focus on stopping bloodshed indicate a SIGNIFICANT SHIFT in the Trump camp's approach, prioritizing a ceasefire over a decisive Ukrainian victory.
• CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, BOTH SIDES): Reports of drone strikes and counter-drone efforts continue, highlighting the ONGOING IMPORTANCE of this aspect of the conflict. Multiple sources confirm this.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of Russian advances near Bogatyr and Sudzha require verification. The situation near the Oskil River REMAINS A MAJOR CONCERN.
• TRUMP CAMP PUSHES FOR CONCESSIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Kellogg's statements about potential concessions from both sides, including TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS by Russia, are a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT and require IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. The reinforcement of his comments on a potential shift in US war aims further solidifies this.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The potential for European troop deployment, the intense fighting in Zaporizhzhia, the uncorroborated claims of a large Russian offensive, and Putin's preparation for potential negotiations all remain IMPORTANT FACTORS.

Updated Recommendations

1. INVESTIGATE KHERSON CLASH CLAIM (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Urgently deploy all available intelligence assets to verify the reported clashes near Kherson, specifically the claim of US Navy SEAL involvement.
   • Coordinate with US intelligence agencies to obtain confirmation or denial of US special operations forces activity in the area.
   • Analyze any available imagery or video footage from the area to assess the situation.
   • Prepare for potential escalation if the presence of US forces is confirmed.

2. ADDRESS SHIFT IN US WAR AIMS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Engage with US officials to understand the implications of Kellogg's statements about a shift in war aims.
   • Reiterate Ukraine's position on territorial integrity and sovereignty.
   • Coordinate with European allies to ensure a unified response to any pressure to accept a ceasefire that does not meet Ukraine's core security needs.

3. MAINTAIN PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

4. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy intelligence assets to verify the reported Russian advances near Bogatyr and Sudzha.
   • Assess the impact on Ukrainian defensive positions.
   • Prepare for potential counter-measures.

5. CONTINUE MONITORING DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain a high state of alert for drone attacks.
   • Analyze the use of "dummy" drones by Russia and develop countermeasures.
   • Continue efforts to improve air defense.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The POTENTIAL FOR US-RUSSIA TALKS WITHOUT UKRAINE'S FULL PARTICIPATION remains the MOST URGENT CONCERN, closely followed by the POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR ESCALATION FROM POLAND and now potentially from US SPECIAL FORCES ACTIVITY. The EMERGENCY EUROPEAN SUMMIT called by Macron is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVE AIR OPERATIONS, CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE, and the UNCORROBORATED CLAIMS OF A LARGE RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE all require CLOSE MONITORING. The TRUMP CAMP'S PUSH FOR CONCESSIONS and SHIFT IN WAR AIMS are a MAJOR NEW DEVELOPMENT that requires IMMEDIATE AND CAREFUL ATTENTION. CONSTANT VIGILANCE AND ADAPTATION are crucial. The UNVERIFIED CLAIM OF CLASHES WITH US NAVY SEALS is of EXTREME CONCERN and requires IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION.