Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 15, 2025, 17:10 UTC

Changes and New Information (16:41 UTC - 17:10 UTC)

1. ZELENSKY DISCUSSES PEACEKEEPERS/EUROPEAN TROOPS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • РБК-Україна (16:42 UTC, 16:45 UTC, 16:48 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (17:08 UTC) report Zelensky discussing the possibility of a peacekeeping force or European troops to protect Ukraine from future Russian aggression. He mentions a necessary force of over 1 million and acknowledges the significant financial implications. European leaders are reportedly considering the idea, and consultations will be held. The Financial Times is also cited, reporting that the US sent a letter to European countries inquiring about security guarantees, including potential troop deployments.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES the ongoing discussion about long-term security guarantees for Ukraine. The mention of a 1 million-strong force is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT, indicating the scale of commitment Ukraine believes is necessary. The US inquiry to European nations suggests ACTIVE DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT on this issue, but also potential PRESSURE on European allies to contribute significantly. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT with potentially FAR-REACHING CONSEQUENCES.

2. ZELENSKY ON US MINERAL DEAL (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (16:44 UTC), РБК-Україна (16:48 UTC) report Zelensky stating he did not approve a US deal on mineral resources because it was not ready and did not protect Ukraine's interests.
   • Assessment: This indicates POTENTIAL FRICTION between Ukraine and the US regarding economic agreements. Zelensky's statement emphasizes his commitment to protecting Ukrainian national interests, even in dealings with key allies. This requires CAREFUL MONITORING for any signs of deteriorating relations.

3. KELLOGG ON "WAR TO THE LAST UKRAINIAN" (REPORTED, RUSSIAN & UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Colonelcassad (16:44 UTC) and Alex Parker Returns (16:57 UTC) report General Kellogg (Trump advisor) stating that their philosophy is not to continue the war "to the last Ukrainian." Colonelcassad frames this as a contradiction, claiming it proves the existence of a "war to the last Ukrainian" strategy. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (16:59 UTC) reports that the US will present a plan to end the war in Ukraine within "days or weeks" according to Kellogg, with the process expected to take about six months.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT STATEMENT with potential implications for US policy. Kellogg's denial of a "war to the last Ukrainian" suggests a desire to DISTANCE THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION from that narrative. However, the Russian framing of the statement as a contradiction should be viewed with SKEPTICISM. The reported timeline of six months for ending the conflict is AMBITIOUS and REQUIRES CAREFUL MONITORING.

4. REPORTED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (16:47 UTC) claims that the Russians are advancing with a mass attack on one of the directions, with 17 units of Russian equipment destroyed.
   • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (16:50 UTC) reports on Russian attempts to storm the islands near Kherson, and states that they were defeated.
   • Assessment: Claims that REQUIRE INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.

5. RUSSIAN TROOPS LEFT TRANSNISTRIA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (16:52 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСУ (17:01 UTC) reports that, according to Zelensky, the Russian forces left Transnistria during the full-scale war. The remainder amounts to 1000-2500 soldiers.
   • Assessment: This is new information that will affect the future of the security of the region.

6. UKRAINIAN DRONE HUNTER (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (16:51 UTC) shows a video of "Wild Hornets" testing a hunter drone equipped with a 12-gauge shotgun.
   • Assessment: This is an interesting development, but it is unlikely that such small-caliber weapons will make a significant impact.

7. REPEATED BEREZOVKA CLAIMS (RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (16:52 UTC) repeats the claim of the MoD about the liberation of Berezovka.
   • Assessment: Still not an independent confirmation.

8. RUSSIAN FPV DRONE STRIKE IN KURSK OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (16:54) reports an FPV drone attack on a group of four Ukrainian soldiers sheltering at a bus stop in Kursk Oblast.
   • Assessment: The location, if accurate, is notable. REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The video provided by Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (16:58 UTC) may show this incident.

9. RUSSIAN POW TESTIMONY (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (16:57 UTC) presents a video of a Russian POW claiming to have received only 8 days of training instead of the promised 21.
   • Assessment: This supports the existing narrative of poor Russian training, though it should be treated as a single data point.

10. ABKHAZIA ELECTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Рыбарь (16:58) reports that exit polls in Abkhazia's election show a victory for the Russia-backed candidate, Badra Gunba.
    • Assessment: This is of little significance.

Updated Situation Summary

• POTENTIAL FOR PEACEKEEPERS/EUROPEAN TROOPS (HIGH PRIORITY, DEVELOPMENT): Zelensky's discussion of a large peacekeeping force, coupled with the reported US inquiry to European nations, indicates ACTIVE DIPLOMATIC MOVEMENT on this issue. This has MAJOR IMPLICATIONS for the future of the conflict and Ukraine's security.
• ZELENSKY DENIES SAUDI ARABIA NEGOTIATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Contradicts reports about Ukraine being involved in any peace talks, showing split between Ukrainian and US statements.
• POTENTIAL US-RUSSIA TALKS IN SAUDI ARABIA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, suggesting ACTIVE DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT between the US and Russia, POTENTIALLY WITHOUT UKRAINE'S FULL PARTICIPATION. This REQUIRES IMMEDIATE CLARIFICATION AND DIPLOMATIC ACTION.
• UKRAINIAN AIRSTRIKES IN SUMY REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Indicates ACTIVE UKRAINIAN AIR OPERATIONS and REQUIRES CONTINUOUS MONITORING.
• CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, BOTH SIDES): Both sides claim successes in drone operations, highlighting the ONGOING IMPORTANCE of this aspect of the conflict. Claims of a massive Russian assault and fighting in the Kherson direction are UNCORROBORATED by other sources, and should be treated with skepticism.
• UKRAINIAN USE OF US-SUPPLIED PRECISION MUNITIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Demonstrates the use of advanced weaponry and potential for high-precision strikes.
• RUSSIAN TANK UPGRADES (LOW MILITARY IMPACT, REPORTED): Standard military modernization effort.
• ZELENSKY'S OFFER TO VISIT FRONT LINES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Aims to influence US policy through direct exposure to the conflict.
• POTENTIAL US-UKRAINE FRICTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Zelensky's rejection of a US mineral deal highlights potential disagreements on economic matters.
• KELLOGG'S COMMENTS ON "WAR TO THE LAST UKRAINIAN" (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Suggests a shift in US rhetoric and a potential timeline for ending the conflict.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The potential for European troop deployment, continued Russian offensive pressure near Kurakhovo, Putin's preparation for potential negotiations, and Zelensky's reiteration of Ukraine's central role in negotiations all remain IMPORTANT FACTORS.

Updated Recommendations

1. CLARIFY US-RUSSIA TALKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Urgently seek clarification from US officials regarding the reported meetings in Saudi Arabia.
   • Determine the scope and objectives of these talks and whether they involve discussions about peace terms for Ukraine.
   • Express strong concerns about any negotiations that exclude Ukraine's full participation.
   • Coordinate with European allies to ensure a unified response to this development.

2. ENGAGE WITH EUROPEAN ALLIES ON SECURITY GUARANTEES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Conduct consultations with European leaders to discuss potential contributions to a peacekeeping force or other security arrangements.
   • Assess the feasibility and financial implications of deploying a large force.
   • Coordinate with the US on its inquiry to European nations.

3. MONITOR SUMY REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain close surveillance of the Sumy region following reports of Ukrainian airstrikes.
   • Assess the impact of these strikes and gather intelligence on Russian troop movements and deployments in the area.

4. VERIFY DRONE WARFARE CLAIMS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue to gather intelligence from multiple sources to verify claims of drone strikes and casualties from both sides, particularly near Kherson and in Kursk.
   • Assess the credibility of the reported Ukrainian drone hunter using a shotgun.

5. ASSESS IMPLICATIONS OF COPPERHEAD USE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Evaluate the effectiveness of the Copperhead shells and consider increasing their use if proven successful.
   • Assess any potential countermeasures that Russia might deploy in response.

6. MAINTAIN PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

7. INVESTIGATE REPORTS ON RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE (MEDIUM PRIORITY)

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, human intelligence, signals intelligence) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claims.

The POTENTIAL FOR US-RUSSIA TALKS WITHOUT UKRAINE'S FULL PARTICIPATION remains the MOST URGENT CONCERN. The DEVELOPMENT REGARDING PEACEKEEPERS/EUROPEAN TROOPS is also HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT. ACTIVE AIR OPERATIONS IN SUMY, CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE, and the UNCORROBORATED CLAIMS OF A LARGE RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE all require CLOSE MONITORING. The situation is EXTREMELY FLUID AND DYNAMIC, demanding CONSTANT VIGILANCE AND ADAPTATION.