Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 15, 2025, 15:40 UTC

Changes and New Information (15:10 UTC - 15:40 UTC)

1. BAERBOCK ON UKRAINE'S NATO MEMBERSHIP (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE - RBC-UKRAINE):

   • RBC-Ukraine (15:11 UTC) confirms earlier reports, stating that German Foreign Minister Baerbock insists Ukraine's NATO membership is "not off the table."
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES the previously identified POTENTIAL FRICTION between the US (Kellogg's statements) and Europe (Baerbock's statements) regarding Ukraine's future security arrangements. This divergence in views COMPLICATES the negotiation process.

2. TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CONTACTS WITH BELARUS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE - COLONELCASSAD):

   • Colonelcassad (15:12 UTC) reports that the Trump administration has initiated contacts with the "legitimate president of Belarus" (referring to Lukashenko, not Tikhanovskaya). Discussions reportedly include US sanctions on Belarus.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. If confirmed, it suggests a MAJOR SHIFT in US foreign policy under a potential Trump administration, potentially STRENGTHENING Lukashenko's position and WEAKENING the Belarusian opposition. This DIRECTLY IMPACTS the regional security dynamics and COULD INCREASE the risk of Belarusian involvement in the conflict.

3. FINNISH SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE - RBC-UKRAINE):

   • RBC-Ukraine (15:15 UTC) reports that Finnish President Stubb has assured Zelensky of continued support for Ukraine, including political, financial, and military aid, to strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES the commitment of European allies to support Ukraine, but HIGHLIGHTS the focus on achieving a NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT from a position of strength, rather than outright military victory.

4. UKRAINIAN DRONE PREPARATIONS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE - OPERATIVNYI ZSU):

   • Operativnyi ZSU (15:15 UTC) shows images of Ukrainian "Liutyi" drones being prepared for flight, claiming they are from the 14th Separate UAV Regiment.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS ongoing Ukrainian drone operations and highlights their continued reliance on UAV TECHNOLOGY for both reconnaissance and offensive actions.

5. ZELENSKY'S MUNICH SPEECH (EXTENSIVE EXCERPTS, UKRAINIAN SOURCE - ZELENSKIY / OFFICIAL):

   • Zelensky (multiple posts between 15:15 and 15:18 UTC) provides extensive excerpts from his speech at the Munich Security Conference. Key points include:
     • Claiming a Russian drone strike on the Chernobyl sarcophagus.
     • Asserting Russia plans to create 15 new divisions (150,000 troops) and deploy them to Belarus this summer under the guise of "exercises."
     • Warning of potential Russian aggression against NATO countries bordering Belarus.
     • Calling for the creation of a "European Army" and increased European military self-sufficiency.
     • Rejecting any deals made "behind Ukraine's back" and insisting on European involvement in all decisions about its future.
     • Claiming significant Russian casualties (250,000 killed, 610,000 wounded) and the destruction of North Korean units.
     • Maintaining that Ukraine's NATO membership should remain on the agenda.
   • Assessment: Zelensky's speech is a MAJOR POLICY STATEMENT. It ESCALATES RHETORIC regarding the Russian threat, particularly highlighting the potential for attacks on NATO countries. The call for a "European Army" is a SIGNIFICANT PROPOSAL. The claims of Russian casualties and the destruction of North Korean units need VERIFICATION. The speech aims to MOBILIZE SUPPORT for Ukraine, STRENGTHEN EUROPEAN DEFENSE, and PREVENT UKRAINE FROM BEING SIDELINED in any negotiations.

6. CHINA ON NEGOTIATIONS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE - OPERATIVNYI ZSU):

   • Operativnyi ZSU (15:34 UTC) reports that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that Europe should also be at the negotiating table for ending the war between Ukraine and Russia.
   • Assessment: This DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS Kellogg's statement that Europe would not be physically present at the negotiations. This FURTHER COMPLICATES the diplomatic landscape and INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR DISAGREEMENT among key international actors.

7. RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN BOGATYRSKOE DIRECTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (15:35 UTC) report that, as a result of an attack using vehicles, units of the Russian Armed Forces were able to break into Constantinople from the southeast, into Ułakły - from the southeast and east.
   • Assessment: This marks a SERIOUS ADVANCE for the Russian forces.

8. RUSSIAN LOSSES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Kotsnews (15:33 UTC) reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost more than 60,780 soldiers, 363 tanks, 268 infantry fighting vehicles, 216 armored personnel carriers, 1,879 armored fighting vehicles, 1,986 vehicles, 439 artillery guns, 48 ​​launchers of multiple launch rocket systems during the fighting in the Kursk direction, including 13 American HIMARS and six US-made MLRS.
   • Assessment: If true, this indicates a TREMENDOUS AMOUNT of loss for the Ukrainian army.

Updated Situation Summary

• DIVERGING VIEWS ON NEGOTIATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Conflicting statements from the US (Kellogg), Europe (Baerbock), and China (Wang Yi) highlight MAJOR DISAGREEMENTS on the negotiation process, particularly regarding European involvement. This SERIOUSLY COMPLICATES efforts to achieve a negotiated settlement.
• POTENTIAL US-BELARUS THAW (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of contacts between the Trump administration and Lukashenko suggest a POTENTIAL SHIFT in US policy, with implications for regional security and the risk of Belarusian involvement in the conflict.
• ZELENSKY ESCALATES RHETORIC, CALLS FOR "EUROPEAN ARMY" (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Zelensky's Munich speech SHARPLY INCREASES concerns about Russian aggression, particularly towards NATO countries, and proposes a MAJOR RESTRUCTURING of European defense.
• CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirmed preparations for Ukrainian drone flights highlight their ongoing reliance on UAV technology.
• FINNISH SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reinforces European commitment to supporting Ukraine, but with a focus on achieving a negotiated settlement from a position of strength.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN BOGATYRSKOE DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed reports of a SIGNIFICANT breakthrough for Russian Forces.
• RUSSIAN REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN LOSSES (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed reports of MAJOR losses for the Ukrainian army.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The G7 sanctions statement, the US push for negotiations with a 180-day timeline, the continued Russian air threat, the stabilized Chernobyl situation, and the implications of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire all remain IMPORTANT FACTORS.

Updated Recommendations

1. URGENTLY ADDRESS DIVERGING VIEWS ON NEGOTIATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Initiate high-level diplomatic efforts to clarify the positions of the US, European allies, and China on the negotiation process.
   • Seek to establish a common framework for negotiations that addresses the concerns of all key stakeholders, particularly regarding European involvement.
   • Prepare for potential scenarios where negotiations proceed without full agreement among all parties.

2. MONITOR US-BELARUS CONTACTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Gather intelligence on the nature and scope of contacts between the Trump administration and Lukashenko.
   • Assess the implications for regional security and the potential for increased Belarusian involvement in the conflict.
   • Engage with European allies to coordinate a response to any potential shift in US policy towards Belarus.

3. ANALYZE ZELENSKY'S SPEECH AND PREPARE RESPONSES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Verify the claims made by Zelensky regarding the Chernobyl drone strike, Russian troop deployments to Belarus, and Russian/North Korean casualties.
   • Assess the implications of Zelensky's call for a "European Army" and increased European military self-sufficiency.
   • Develop strategies to address Zelensky's concerns about being sidelined in negotiations.

4. MAINTAIN PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation is RAPIDLY EVOLVING and HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. The DIVERGING VIEWS ON NEGOTIATIONS and the POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY TOWARDS BELARUS represent the MOST SIGNIFICANT AND IMMEDIATE CHALLENGES. URGENT DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are needed to PREVENT A BREAKDOWN IN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION and to ENSURE UKRAINE'S INTERESTS ARE PROTECTED.