Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 15, 2025, 14:20 UTC

Changes and New Information (14:10 UTC - 14:20 UTC)

1. UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT (CONFIRMED, OFFICIAL UKRAINIAN SOURCE, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 14:16 UTC):

   • Reports 176 TOTAL COMBAT CLASHES as of 16:00 local time (14:00 UTC).
   • CHERNIHIV AND SUMY OBLASTS: Reports artillery and mortar attacks on OLEKSANDRIVKA, HREM'YACHKA, PONOMARENKY, BILA BEREZA, AND PROHRES.
   • KHARKIV DIRECTION: Reports four combat clashes near VOVCHANSK and TYKHE, with one ongoing.
   • KUPYANSK DIRECTION: Reports 35 RUSSIAN ATTACKS near DVORICHNA, PETROPAVLIVKA, STEPNA NOVOSELIVKA, KOLISNYKIVKA, LOZOVA, and towards NOVOOSYNOVE, with 23 ONGOING. This is a SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF ONGOING CLASHES.
   • LYMAN DIRECTION: Reports 19 RUSSIAN ATTACKS near ZELENYI HAI, NOVOIEHORIVKA, HREKIVKA, KOLODYAZI, YAMPOLIVKA, TERNY, TORSKE, and DIBROVA, with 9 ONGOING.
   • SIVERSK DIRECTION: Reports 3 RUSSIAN ASSAULTS REPULSED, with 6 ONGOING near VERKHNYOKAM'YANSKE and IVANO-DAR'IVKA.
   • KRAMATORSK DIRECTION: Reports 10 RUSSIAN ASSAULTS REPULSED, with enemy attempts to break through to PREDTECHYNE, STUPOCHKY, BILA HORA, and near CHASIV YAR. 17 CLASHES COMPLETED.
   • TORETSK DIRECTION: Reports 8 RUSSIAN ASSAULTS REPULSED near TORETSK, DYLIIIVKA, and KRYMSKE, with 7 ONGOING.
   • POKROVSK DIRECTION: Reports 47 RUSSIAN ATTEMPTS to dislodge Ukrainian forces near ZELENE POLE, TARASIVKA, VODYANE DRUHE, MYROLYUBIVKA, YELYZAVETIVKA, PROMIN', LYSIVKA, DACHENSKE, SHEVCHENKO, PISCHANE, KOTLYNE, UDACHNE, NADIIVKA, and ANDRIIVKA. Ukrainian forces REPULSED 24 ATTACKS, with 23 ONGOING. This is a VERY HIGH NUMBER OF CLASHES and indicates INTENSE FIGHTING in this direction.
   • NOVOPAVLIVSKE DIRECTION: Reports 9 RUSSIAN ATTEMPTS to break through near ZELENIVKA and VELYKA NOVOSILKA, with 6 ONGOING.
   • HULYAIPOLE DIRECTION: Reports KAB AIRSTRIKES on HULYAIPOLE, ZALIZNYCHNE, VERKHNYA TERSA, and KOPANI.
   • KURSK DIRECTION: Reports 11 CLASHES, with 4 ONGOING. Also reports 8 RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES using 8 GUIDED BOMBS and 182 SHELLING INCIDENTS targeting Ukrainian positions and settlements.
   • Assessment: This is a COMPREHENSIVE AND DETAILED REPORT from the OFFICIAL UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF, confirming VERY HIGH-INTENSITY COMBAT across MULTIPLE FRONTS, particularly in the KUPYANSK and POKROVSK DIRECTIONS. The sheer number of reported clashes (176) and the ongoing battles (MANY STILL ONGOING) highlight the SCALE AND INTENSITY of the fighting. The report also confirms RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY, including the use of GUIDED BOMBS. EXTREME PRIORITY to CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR the situation, especially in the POKROVSK DIRECTION, where the HIGHEST NUMBER OF CLASHES is reported.

2. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE ON RUSSIAN POSITION (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, DeepState✙🇺🇦, 14:14 UTC):

   • Video purportedly shows Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian positions near ZELENIVKA. Reports claim Russian forces are building up reserves and attempting to advance towards ULAKLY. Also reports increased Russian drone activity near Ulakly.
   • Assessment: This report CORROBORATES PREVIOUS REPORTS of INCREASED RUSSIAN ACTIVITY and UKRAINIAN DRONE WARFARE. The claimed buildup of Russian reserves near Zelenivka suggests a POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION OF OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in this area. HIGH PRIORITY to VERIFY the claims of Russian reserve buildup and increased drone activity.

3. CLAIMED RUSSIAN AIR STRIKE ON OSKOL RIVER CROSSING (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, Военкор Котенок, 14:18 UTC):

   • Reports a Russian air strike using a KH-38 AIR-TO-SURFACE MISSILE to destroy a crossing over the OSKOL RIVER.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of a Russian air strike on a bridge over the Oskol River. The specific identification of the weapon as a KH-38 MISSILE is noteworthy. EXTREME PRIORITY to VERIFY the location and timing of the strike, and to ASSESS THE DAMAGE and its impact on Ukrainian operations.

4. UKRAINIAN FORCES NEUTRALIZE RUSSIAN FAB BOMB (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, 14:16 UTC):

   • Reports that Ukrainian forces used ELECTRONIC WARFARE (REW) to neutralize a Russian FAB-1500 BOMB near POKROVSK.
   • Assessment: If confirmed, it proves the potential effectiveness of countermeasures against this type of munition.

5. KELLOGG ON US FUNDING FOR UKRAINE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, РБК-Україна, 14:12 UTC):

   • Kellogg states that the US WILL CONTINUE TO FUND UKRAINE, but emphasizes the need to "stop the killings." He compares the current violence to the level of World War II.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT STATEMENT, indicating a CONTINUED US COMMITMENT to providing financial support to Ukraine, but also a STRONG EMPHASIS on finding a RAPID RESOLUTION to the conflict. The comparison to World War II is notable and suggests a sense of urgency.

6. KELLOGG ON CEASEFIRE AND NEGOTIATIONS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, РБК-Україна, 14:18 UTC):

   • Kellogg states that Ukraine and Russia must agree on a ceasefire. He emphasizes that Ukraine is a party to the conflict and must be involved in the decision. He also mentions the formation of alliances, including Russia with China, North Korea, and Iran, and views the situation as a global issue.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS STATEMENTS by Kellogg, emphasizing the need for a CEASEFIRE and UKRAINIAN INVOLVEMENT in negotiations. The mention of Russia's alliances is noteworthy and highlights the BROADER GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT of the conflict.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREMELY HIGH-INTENSITY COMBAT ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The Ukrainian General Staff report confirms 176 TOTAL COMBAT CLASHES, with MANY STILL ONGOING, particularly in the KUPYANSK and POKROVSK DIRECTIONS. This represents the MOST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT in this update.
• POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Remains unchanged. VERIFICATION IS CRITICAL.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY AND STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed Ukrainian General Staff report of airstrikes and a claimed successful Ukrainian use of EW.
• UKRAINIAN DRONE WARFARE CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed Ukrainian drone strike and reported targeting of Russian positions near Zelenivka.
• KELLOGG REITERATES US COMMITMENT TO FUNDING UKRAINE BUT EMPHASIZES NEED FOR CEASEFIRE (HIGH PRIORITY): Kellogg's statements confirm continued US financial support but also a strong push for a rapid resolution to the conflict.
• REPORTS OF FOREIGN FIGHTER ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN BUILDUP (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Remains unchanged.
• CLAIMED RUSSIAN AIR STRIKE ON OSKOL RIVER CROSSING (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reinforced by a new report specifying the use of a KH-38 missile.

Updated Recommendations

1. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING ADJUSTMENTS AND ADDITIONS:

2. FOCUS ON KUPYANSK AND POKROVSK DIRECTIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Given the extremely high number of reported clashes, particularly in the KUPYANSK and POKROVSK DIRECTIONS, PRIORITIZE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING AND SITUATIONAL AWARENESS in these areas.
   • DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE ASSETS to monitor troop movements, identify potential attack vectors, and assess the status of Ukrainian defensive positions.
   • PROVIDE REAL-TIME UPDATES to commanders and PREPARE FOR RAPID RESPONSE to any breakthroughs or significant shifts in the battlefield situation.

3. INVESTIGATE REPORTED RUSSIAN RESERVE BUILDUP NEAR ZELENIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE SOURCES to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claims of Russian reserve buildup near Zelenivka.
   • Assess the potential implications for Russian offensive operations in this area.

4. VERIFY CLAIMED NEUTRALIZATION OF RUSSIAN FAB BOMB (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE SOURCES to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claims of the FAB bomb neutralization.
   • Assess the implications for future countermeasures.

5. CONTINUE MONITORING US DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS AND STATEMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Pay close attention to statements by US officials, particularly Kellogg, regarding funding for Ukraine and the push for a ceasefire.
   • Analyze the implications of these statements for Ukrainian strategy and negotiations.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS, with INTENSE FIGHTING reported across MULTIPLE FRONTS. The UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT confirms the SCALE AND INTENSITY of the conflict. CONTINUED VIGILANCE, RAPID RESPONSE CAPABILITIES, EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, AND STRONG DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are crucial.