Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 15, 2025, 13:40 UTC

Changes and New Information (13:10 UTC - 13:40 UTC)

1. REPETITION - US SENATOR GRAHAM FRAMES UKRAINE SUPPORT AS ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY (REPORTED, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 13:10 UTC):

   • Identical report to 12:41 UTC from РБК-Україна. See previous assessment.

2. KELLOGG: TRUMP WILL MAKE FINAL DECISION ON UKRAINE SECURITY GUARANTEES (REPORTED, РБК-Україна, 13:11 UTC):

   • Kellogg states that various options for security guarantees for Ukraine are being considered. He will discuss these options with European allies and then present them to Trump, who will make the final decision. He emphasizes a fast timeline – "days and weeks," not months. He jokes about Russia requesting the return of Alaska, emphasizing that some outcomes are impossible.
   • Assessment: This highlights TRUMP'S CENTRAL ROLE in determining future US policy towards Ukraine. It emphasizes the URGENCY of the situation and the relatively SHORT TIMEFRAME for decisions. The joke about Alaska is likely intended to dismiss extreme Russian demands and reassure allies.

3. RUSSIAN SOLDIER'S DISCREDITING ALLEGATIONS (REPORTED, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 13:12 UTC):

   • The post claims that the soldier is discrediting the Russian military.
   • Assessment: Unlikely to affect the current situation.

4. KELLOGG ON PEACE NEGOTIATIONS APPROACH (REPORTED, РБК-Україна, 13:12 UTC):

   • Kellogg clarifies his approach to peace negotiations: ensure Ukrainian sovereignty, involve European allies, and emphasize the importance of including Zelensky. He states, "We cannot do this ourselves; for long-term peace, we cannot exclude President Zelensky, nobody. Because without this, it won't work."
   • Assessment: This REITERATES THE IMPORTANCE OF UKRAINIAN INVOLVEMENT in any peace negotiations. It stresses the need for ALLIED COOPERATION and implicitly acknowledges Zelensky's legitimacy.

5. US CITIZEN ARRESTED IN MOSCOW FOR DRUG POSSESSION (REPORTED, ASTRA, 13:13 UTC):

   • A 28-year-old US citizen was arrested at Vnukovo airport in Moscow for possessing 0.5kg of cannabis gummies. He claims they were prescribed by a US doctor. This comes shortly after the release of a former US embassy employee also arrested for marijuana possession.
   • Assessment: NO IMMEDIATE BATTLEFIELD IMPACT, but this could become a POINT OF DIPLOMATIC FRICTION between the US and Russia. It could also be used by Russia for PROPAGANDA PURPOSES or as a bargaining chip.

6. RUSSIAN SPECIAL FORCES DESTROY UKRAINIAN COLUMNS (REPORTED, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, 13:13 UTC):

   • Claims that Russian forces are destroying Ukrainian columns.
   • Assessment: This suggests the conflict is continuing.

7. DRONE STRIKE ON AUSTRALIAN BUSHMASTER APC (REPORTED, Colonelcassad, 13:15 UTC):

   • Video shows a drone, identified as "Knyaz Vandal Novgorodsky," striking an Australian Bushmaster armored personnel carrier in the Kursk direction.
   • Assessment: This confirms the CONTINUED USE OF DRONES IN WARFARE and highlights the VULNERABILITY OF EVEN MODERN ARMORED VEHICLES to drone attacks. The specific targeting of a WESTERN-SUPPLIED VEHICLE may be used for RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA.

8. REPETITION - STEVU VITKOFFU'S POTENTIAL RETURN TO MOSCOW (REPORTED,Оперативний ЗСУ, 13:18 UTC):

• Repeated report.

9. BRITISH MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE (REPORTED, Рыбарь, 13:18 UTC):

   • The UK announced a new £150 million aid package for Ukraine, including armored vehicles (including modernized T-72s), UAVs, air defense systems, and contracts for repairing Swedish Archer howitzers. The British Defense Minister stated that Ukraine's allies must "ensure peace through strength."
   • Assessment: This demonstrates CONTINUED UK SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE and highlights the ongoing supply of WESTERN MILITARY EQUIPMENT. The emphasis on "peace through strength" suggests a commitment to bolstering Ukraine's defensive capabilities.

10. POSITIONAL FIGHTING NEAR GORLOVKA (REPORTED, Сливочный каприз, 13:18 UTC):

    • Positional fighting continues in the Gorlovka area. Russian forces reportedly advanced 500 meters in the residential area of Shcherbynivka and occupied new positions in the eastern part of the settlement. Reports claim a Russian position in Shcherbynivka came under Ukrainian fire.
    • Assessment: This confirms CONTINUED FIGHTING in this area, with LIMITED RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported. The claim of Ukrainian shelling indicates ONGOING ARTILLERY EXCHANGES.

11. DANISH PM ON NATO MEMBERSHIP/SECURITY GUARANTEES (REPORTED, STERNENKO, 13:20 UTC):

    • Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen states that the best protection for Ukraine is NATO membership. If some NATO countries oppose membership, strong security guarantees that do not fall short of Euro-Atlantic integration should be developed.
    • Assessment: This reinforces CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE'S SECURITY from European allies. It acknowledges the DIFFICULTIES IN ACHIEVING NATO MEMBERSHIP in the short term and highlights the need for ALTERNATIVE SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS.

12. RUSSIAN REACTION TO TRUFANOV'S RELEASE (REPORTED, ТАСС, 13:21 UTC):

    • Russia has released a Russian citizen.
    • Assessment: Not directly related to the conflict.

13. CHERNOBYL SARCOPHAGUS FIRE EXTINGUISHED (REPORTED, РБК-Україна, 13:21 UTC):

    • The State Emergency Service of Ukraine (DSNS) reports that the burning insulation on the Chernobyl sarcophagus has been extinguished. Workers are continuing to address the damage at a height of over 100 meters. The radiation background at the industrial site near the ChNPP does not exceed permissible levels.
    • Assessment: This indicates that the IMMEDIATE DANGER FROM THE CHERNOBYL INCIDENT HAS BEEN MITIGATED. The continued work on the sarcophagus and the monitoring of radiation levels emphasize the ONGOING RISKS associated with the site.

14. RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR SUKHIE YALY RIVER (REPORTED, Воин DV, 13:27 UTC):

    • Assault units of the 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps are reportedly continuing to penetrate Ukrainian defenses near the Sukhie Yaly River, in the direction of Konstantinopol and Ulakly, aiming to close the encirclement from the south. The report claims that Russian drone operators are targeting Ukrainian drone control points.
    • Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE EFFORTS in this area, with a focus on ENCIRCLEMENT TACTICS. The targeting of Ukrainian drone control points highlights the IMPORTANCE OF COUNTER-DRONE WARFARE.

15. KELLOGG: US WILL BE MEDIATOR BETWEEN UKRAINE AND RUSSIA (REPORTED, РБК-Україна, 13:28 UTC):

    • Kellogg states that the US will act as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia in peace negotiations. He emphasizes that the goal is to stop the killing and the war. He reiterates that he is there to gather information and that Ukrainians and Russians will be at the negotiating table, with Americans as mediators.
    • Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE US INTENTION TO PLAY A CENTRAL ROLE in any peace negotiations. It REITERATES THE INVOLVEMENT OF BOTH UKRAINE AND RUSSIA in the process.

16. ZELENSKY NOT ALLOWED TO SPEAK UKRAINIAN IN MUNICH (REPORTED, ТАСС, 13:28 UTC):

• TASS reports that Zelensky was not allowed to speak Ukrainian at the Munich Security Conference.
• Assessment: Irrelevant to the military situation.

17. CEASEFIRE/PEACE TREATY NOT THE DEFINITIVE SUCCESS FOR UKRAINE (REPORTED, РБК-Україна, 13:37 UTC):

    • Kellogg has stated that long-term peace is not the definitive success, rather, how each party responds to the first ceasefire violation is.
    • Assessment: This suggests that Kellogg expects violations and is prepared to continue negotiations.

18. ZAKHAROVA DISMISSES ZELENSKY'S CREDIBILITY (REPORTED, ТАСС, 13:39 UTC):

• TASS quotes Maria Zakharova stating that Zelensky cannot surprise anyone with "sensitive information" about the Biden administration's role in the conflict, claiming that the US public is already aware of it.
• Assessment: Propaganda, not related to the military situation.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONTINUED FIGHTING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY): Reports confirm continued fighting near Kurakhovo (with a reported Russian offensive), Gorlovka (with limited Russian advances), and the Sukhie Yaly River (with Russian efforts to encircle Ukrainian positions).
• RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed Russian drone strikes on a Ukrainian robotic platform and an Australian Bushmaster APC. Russian reports also emphasize targeting Ukrainian drone control points.
• US INVOLVEMENT IN POTENTIAL PEACE NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY): Kellogg reiterates that the US will act as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia, with Trump making the final decision on any security guarantees for Ukraine. He emphasizes a fast timeline for decisions.
• CHERNOBYL INCIDENT UNDER CONTROL (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The fire on the Chernobyl sarcophagus has been extinguished, and radiation levels are reported as normal. Work continues to address the damage.
• CONTINUED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The UK announces a new military aid package for Ukraine. The Danish PM reiterates support for Ukraine's security, either through NATO membership or strong security guarantees.
• POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVO STILL REQUIRES VERIFICATION (EXTREME PRIORITY): Reports of a significant Russian advance with armored vehicles near Kurakhovo, initially reported at 12:42 UTC, STILL REQUIRE VERIFICATION. This remains the most immediate potential change in the battlefield situation.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS NEAR KURAKHOVO (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • This remains the top priority. All available intelligence assets must be used to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported Russian breakthrough near Ulakly and Uspenivka. URGENTLY assess the extent of any Russian gains and identify Ukrainian defensive positions.

2. MONITOR RUSSIAN DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Continue tracking Russian drone operations, particularly strikes against Ukrainian equipment and infrastructure. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION to any indications of new drone capabilities or tactics.
   • MAINTAIN EFFORTS to counter Russian drone capabilities, including air defense and electronic warfare.

3. TRACK US DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • CLOSELY MONITOR statements and actions by US officials, particularly Kellogg and any communications from Trump, regarding potential peace negotiations and security guarantees for Ukraine.
   • ASSESS the implications of these developments for Ukrainian strategy and potential future negotiations.

4. MAINTAIN VIGILANCE REGARDING CHERNOBYL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • CONTINUE MONITORING the situation at Chernobyl, despite the fire being extinguished. ENSURE that radiation levels remain within safe limits and that repairs to the sarcophagus are conducted effectively.

5. CONTINUE MONITORING INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • TRACK further statements and actions by international partners regarding military and financial aid to Ukraine. ASSESS the likelihood of continued or increased support.

6. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT: All other previously issued recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The situation remains HIGHLY DYNAMIC, with the POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVO remaining the most pressing concern. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE and US DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS also require CLOSE MONITORING.