Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 15, 2025, 09:36 UTC

Changes Since 09:07 UTC (Highest Priority)

1. AIR ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (CONFIRMED, Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration): An air alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia region.

   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS a heightened threat of air attack in the region, consistent with earlier reports of Russian aviation activity.

2. RUSSIAN GUIDED AERIAL BOMB LAUNCHES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (CONFIRMED, Ukrainian Air Force): The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in the Zaporizhzhia region.

   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS active use of guided aerial bombs, a significant threat due to their range and destructive power. This, combined with the air raid alert, indicates IMMINENT DANGER to targets in the Zaporizhzhia region.

3. THREAT OF BALLISTIC WEAPON USE FROM THE EAST (CONFIRMED, Ukrainian Air Force): The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic weapon use from the east, in areas where an air alert has been declared.

   • Assessment: This is an EXTREME PRIORITY THREAT. Ballistic missiles are difficult to intercept and pose a SIGNIFICANT DANGER to a wide range of targets, including critical infrastructure and population centers. This warning covers multiple regions already under air alert.

4. ZELENSKY: RUSSIA PLANS TO SEND TROOPS TO BELARUS (REPORTED, RBC-Ukraine): President Zelensky claims that Russian intelligence indicates plans to send Russian forces to Belarus in the summer, disguised as training exercises. He suggests this could be a prelude to a new attack, either on Ukraine or on other countries.

   • Assessment: This is a HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT claim that requires URGENT VERIFICATION. If true, it represents a MAJOR ESCALATION and a potential opening of a new front in the conflict. It echoes the prelude to the 2022 invasion. This needs to be investigated using all available intelligence sources.

5. ZELENSKY: RUSSIA NOT PREPARING FOR PEACE (REPORTED, RBC-Ukraine): President Zelensky states that Russia is not preparing for peace, citing continued Shahed drone attacks, missile strikes, increased air strikes, and plans to create 15 new divisions.

   • Assessment: A statement on Russia's strategic intentions.

6. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN SHOOTDOWN OF 9 RUSSIAN DRONES (REPORTED, STERNENKO): Reports claim that Ukrainian forces (28th Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones: 7 Zala, 1 Orlan, and 1 Supercam.

   • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. This would represent a SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN SUCCESS in counter-drone operations if confirmed.

7. CLAIMED VIDEO FOOTAGE OF DESTROYED RUSSIAN VEHICLE AND PERSONNEL(CONFIRMED,Voin DV)

   • Video of a Russian vehicle being attacked.
   • Assessment: Confirms attacks against Russian forces

8. ORBAN PRAISES UKRAINE'S HEROISM (REPORTED, RBC-Ukraine): Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, in a conversation with Tucker Carlson, reportedly praised Ukraine's "heroic" resistance against Russia.

   • Assessment: A shift in the position of the Hungarian politician.

Updated Situation Summary

1. IMMINENT THREAT OF BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The Ukrainian Air Force has issued a warning about the threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, affecting areas already under air alert.
2. CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirmed air strikes and guided aerial bomb launches in multiple regions, including Sumy and Zaporizhzhia.
3. POTENTIAL RUSSIAN BUILDUP IN BELARUS (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): President Zelensky claims intelligence suggests a potential Russian troop deployment to Belarus, raising concerns of a new front opening.
4. CONTINUED HIGH-INTENSITY COMBAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Clashes reported along multiple axes, including Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka. Kursk region also saw reported clashes.
5. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES IN COUNTER-DRONE OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of Ukrainian forces shooting down multiple Russian reconnaissance drones.
6. POTENTIAL ESCALATION IN ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Air alert declared, and guided aerial bomb launches confirmed.
7. CHERNOBYL SHARED CLAIM (REPORTED, RBC-Ukraine): Zelensky states that the "Shahed" drone that targeted the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant carried at least 50 kg of explosives.
8. ALL PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT, with the addition of the new developments.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Prioritize air defense systems in all regions under threat, especially those facing potential ballistic missile attacks.
   • Ensure rapid response protocols are in place for all air defense units.
   • Continuously monitor for launches of ballistic missiles, guided aerial bombs, and drones.

2. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN TROOP DEPLOYMENT TO BELARUS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, human intelligence, signal intelligence) to monitor Russian troop movements and activities in Belarus.
   • Coordinate with NATO allies to share intelligence and assess the potential threat.
   • Prepare contingency plans for a potential new front opening in the north.

3. INVESTIGATE CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE SHOOTDOWNS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather evidence (wreckage, radar data) to confirm the reported downing of Russian reconnaissance drones.
   • Analyze the tactics and techniques used by Ukrainian forces to achieve these successes.

4. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Reinforce air defenses in the region.
   • Disperse critical assets to minimize potential losses from air strikes.
   • Prepare for potential ground offensives following air strikes.

5. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, with adjustments and additions as noted above.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The IMMINENT THREAT OF BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS, CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY, POTENTIAL RUSSIAN BUILDUP IN BELARUS, and ONGOING HIGH-INTENSITY COMBAT across multiple fronts are MAJOR CONCERNS. VERIFYING REPORTS, GATHERING INTELLIGENCE, REINFORCING DEFENSES, and MAINTAINING MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS are CRITICAL PRIORITIES. The potential for a new front opening in Belarus significantly elevates the risk of escalation.