Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 15, 2025, 04:36 UTC

Changes Since 04:06 UTC

1. CONFIRMED VOLGOGRAD INDUSTRIAL FIRE (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES): The Governor of Volgograd Oblast and RBC-Ukraine confirm a localized fire at an industrial facility in Volgograd due to falling drone debris. The fire has reportedly been extinguished.

   • Assessment: This confirms ANOTHER SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE within Russia, despite Russian claims of intercepting all drones. The rapid extinguishing of the fire suggests LIMITED DAMAGE, but the strike itself demonstrates the CONTINUED VULNERABILITY of Russian infrastructure.

2. RUSSIAN AIRPORT RESTRICTIONS (CONFIRMED, TASS, RBC-UKRAINE): Temporary flight restrictions have been imposed at seven Russian airports: Astrakhan, Vladikavkaz, Volgograd, Grozny, Kaluga, Saratov, and Ulyanovsk. RBC-Ukraine refers to this as a "carpet" plan.

   • Assessment: This DIRECTLY CORROBORATES the impact of the widespread Ukrainian drone attacks. The restrictions are likely a precautionary measure to prevent civilian aircraft from being caught in air defense activity or becoming accidental targets. This disrupts civilian air travel and highlights the SPREAD OF THE CONFLICT'S IMPACT within Russia.

3. RUSSIAN MOD CLAIMS 40 DRONES DESTROYED (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN MOD, TASS, ASTRA, RBC-UKRAINE): The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have destroyed 40 Ukrainian drones overnight across various regions: 17 in Volgograd Oblast, 12 in Kaluga Oblast, 9 in Rostov Oblast, and 2 in Saratov Oblast.

   • Assessment: While this confirms a LARGE-SCALE UKRAINIAN DRONE OFFENSIVE, the confirmed fires in Volgograd and Kaluga CONTRADICT THE CLAIM OF COMPLETE INTERCEPTION. The discrepancy between the claimed number of destroyed drones and the confirmed damage suggests either INFLATED RUSSIAN CLAIMS or INEFFECTIVE AIR DEFENSES, or a combination of both. The addition of SARATOV OBLAST to the list of targeted regions further expands the GEOGRAPHICAL SCOPE of the attack.

4. RUSSIAN DRONE UNIT ACTIVITY (REPORTED, COLONELCASSAD, Дневник Десантника):

   • Colonelcassad shows video of Russian "Siberia" and "Grachi" drone units conducting a joint operation, resulting in the capture of two Ukrainian soldiers.
   • Дневник Десантника reports Russian 98th Airborne Division drone units destroying Ukrainian dugouts near Chasiv Yar, and an "Arrow-10" air defense system destroying a "Leleka-100" drone. Also reports BM-21 "Grad" MLRS strikes on Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast. * Assessment: These reports highlight the CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD USE OF DRONES by Russian forces, both for offensive strikes and for capturing prisoners. The claimed destruction of a Ukrainian "Leleka-100" drone, if true, represents a LOSS OF A VALUABLE UKRAINIAN RECONNAISSANCE ASSET. The reported MLRS strikes in Kursk Oblast are consistent with previous reports of cross-border shelling.

5. "SHAMAN" UNIT DESTROYS UKRAINIAN ARMOR (REPORTED, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны): Video purportedly shows the Russian "Shaman" unit of the 1455th regiment destroying two self-propelled artillery units (SAUs) and a tank near Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia direction.

   • Assessment: This report indicates CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING in the Zaporizhzhia region. The claimed destruction of Ukrainian armor, if verified, represents a TACTICAL SUCCESS for Russian forces and a LOSS OF VALUABLE EQUIPMENT for Ukraine. Requires verification.

6. EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE IN ALTAI REPUBLIC (REPORTED, TASS): An earthquake in the Altai Republic has caused power outages in one village and damage to a school in another.

   • Assessment: This is UNRELATED TO THE MILITARY CONFLICT, but it highlights the potential for natural disasters to further complicate the situation and strain resources.

Updated Situation Summary

1. MAJOR UKRAINIAN DRONE OFFENSIVE CONFIRMED, BUT RUSSIAN CLAIMS IN DOUBT (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed drone strikes in Volgograd and Kaluga, despite Russian MOD claims of destroying 40 drones across multiple regions. RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSES ARE PROVING INEFFECTIVE at completely preventing strikes.
2. RUSSIAN AIRPORTS RESTRICTED DUE TO DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Seven Russian airports have imposed flight restrictions, demonstrating the DIRECT IMPACT of the drone attacks on civilian infrastructure.
3. INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY): Reports from both sides indicate ongoing combat, with particular focus on the Zaporizhzhia region (claimed Russian armor destruction) and near Chasiv Yar (Russian drone strikes).
4. RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE CONTINUES (CONFIRMED): Multiple reports highlight the continued use of drones by Russian forces for strikes, reconnaissance, and capturing prisoners.
5. ALL PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The overall situation remains extremely dynamic and dangerous, with the Ukrainian drone offensive representing the most significant new development.

Updated Recommendations

1. CONTINUE ANALYSIS OF DRONE ATTACK PATTERNS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Prioritize analysis of the expanded geographical scope of the attacks, including Saratov Oblast.
   • Assess the effectiveness of Russian air defenses in light of the confirmed strikes despite claimed interceptions.
   • Determine the specific targets of the attacks and their strategic significance.
   • Anticipate potential future targets based on the observed patterns.

2. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR FURTHER DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain heightened air defense readiness across Ukraine and along the border with Russia.
   • Issue public warnings as necessary.

3. VERIFY CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT LOSSES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to verify or refute the claimed destruction of Ukrainian SAUs and a tank near Orikhiv.
   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to verify or refute the claimed destruction of Ukrainian "Leleka-100".
   • Assess the impact on Ukrainian capabilities if these claims are confirmed.

4. CONTINUE VERIFYING RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Maintain efforts to verify or refute the previously reported Russian advances in various directions.

5. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT: All other previously issued recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated above. The situation remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES WITHIN RUSSIA and the DISRUPTION OF RUSSIAN AIR TRAVEL represent a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION. The ongoing fighting, particularly in the Zaporizhzhia region, also requires CLOSE MONITORING. The potential for direct negotiations between Trump and Putin remains a MAJOR OVERARCHING CONCERN, as do the escalating tensions between Moldova and Russia.