Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 15, 2025, 03:06 UTC

Changes and New Information (02:37 UTC - 03:06 UTC, Feb 15)

1. CONFIRMED DRONE ATTACK THREAT IN SARATOV OBLAST (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ASTRA (02:47 UTC) reports air raid sirens active in Saratov Oblast. The governor stated that the Ministry of Defense reported a drone threat, and that emergency services are on full alert.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the DRONE ATTACK THREAT in Saratov Oblast, previously reported as "requires verification." The activation of air raid sirens and the alert status of emergency services indicate a SERIOUS AND IMMINENT THREAT. This corroborates the earlier RBC-Ukraine report (02:37 UTC) of Russians complaining about drone attacks and explosions in Tula and Saratov (Engels) Oblasts, which are assessed as credible.

2. POSSIBLE FUTURE PROSECUTION OF ZELENSKYY (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, PROPAGANDA):

   • TASS (02:43 UTC) reports that Viktor Medvedchuk stated that Zelensky may be prosecuted in the future.
   • Assessment: Not related to current military situation, this is propaganda.

Updated Situation Summary

1. CONFIRMED DRONE ATTACK THREAT IN SARATOV OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Air raid sirens and emergency services on full alert confirm an imminent drone threat in Saratov Oblast. This corroborates earlier reports of explosions in the region.
2. UKRAINIAN DRONE THREAT RECEDING (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple Ukrainian sources confirm that the immediate threat of drone attacks has subsided across the country. Remains in effect.
3. REPORTS OF EXPLOSIONS DEEP WITHIN RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, NOW PARTIALLY CONFIRMED): Reports of explosions in Saratov and Tula Oblasts, now with confirmation of a drone threat in Saratov.
4. DZERZHINSK (TORETSK) A LIKELY FOCUS OF RUSSIAN OPERATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, BASED ON RUSSIAN REPORT): The detailed Russian report on the alleged "liberation" of Dzerzhinsk suggests this area is a current focus of fighting. Remains in effect.
5. CLAIMED REPULSE OF UKRAINIAN DRG (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): A standard Russian report of repelling a Ukrainian sabotage group, requiring independent confirmation. Remains in effect.
6. MOSCOW POLICE RAID POTENTIALLY POLITICALLY MOTIVATED (LOW PRIORITY, DOMESTIC RUSSIAN ISSUE): The raid on a Valentine's Day party in Moscow could be a sign of increased internal control and propaganda efforts. Remains in effect.
7. ALL PREVIOUS SITUATION UPDATES REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. RESPOND TO DRONE THREAT IN SARATOV OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Although this is primarily a Russian internal matter, MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY for any indication of the SOURCE AND NATURE of the drone threat.
   • ASSESS whether this represents a NEW UKRAINIAN CAPABILITY to strike targets deep within Russia.
   • Determine whether the drone attack is related to Ukraine.

2. INVESTIGATE REPORTS OF EXPLOSIONS IN SARATOV AND TULA OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, signal intelligence, human intelligence) to determine the cause and nature of the reported explosions. PRIORITY REMAINS, even with confirmation of the drone threat in Saratov.
   • Assess the potential for Ukrainian involvement, including drone attacks or sabotage operations.
   • Determine the impact of the explosions, including any damage to infrastructure or casualties.

3. MAINTAIN HIGH LEVEL OF VIGILANCE DESPITE RECEDING DRONE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • While the immediate threat has passed, CONTINUE MONITORING airspace and maintaining air defense readiness. REMAINS IN EFFECT.
   • Replenish air defense assets as needed.

4. GATHER INTELLIGENCE ON DZERZHINSK (TORETSK) AREA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Based on the Russian report, focus intelligence-gathering efforts on the Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) area to assess the current situation and potential future Russian operations. REMAINS IN EFFECT.

5. VERIFY REPORT OF REPULSED UKRAINIAN DRG (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Use available intelligence means to confirm or refute the Russian claim of repelling a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group. REMAINS IN EFFECT.

6. CONTINUE ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: All other previously issued recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.