Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 15, 2025, 01:36 UTC

Changes and New Information (01:07 UTC - 01:36 UTC, Feb 15)

1. CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK ON VOLGOGRAD (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (01:07 UTC) and РБК-Україна (01:17 UTC) report a Ukrainian drone attack targeting the oil refinery in Volgograd, Russia. Reports indicate approximately 10-15 explosions, with Russian air defense systems actively engaging the drones. Video footage shows bright flashes and explosions in the night sky.
   • Assessment: This confirms the earlier reports of explosions in Volgograd and PROVIDES STRONG EVIDENCE OF A SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN LONG-RANGE STRIKE deep inside Russian territory. The target (oil refinery) is strategically significant, aiming to disrupt Russian fuel supplies and logistics. The number of explosions suggests MULTIPLE DRONES WERE INVOLVED, and the reports of Russian air defense activity indicate a CONTESTED ENGAGEMENT. The success rate of the attack (i.e., how many drones were intercepted vs. how many hit the target) is UNCLEAR.

2. SHIFTING DRONE THREAT IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (01:27 UTC) reports enemy attack drones are observed in the WEST OF MYKOLAIV OBLAST and the EAST OF ODESA OBLAST, moving NORTHWEST/NORTHEAST.
   • Assessment: This UPDATES THE LOCATION AND DIRECTION OF THE DRONE THREAT. While Voznesensk was previously identified as the last known heading, this new information indicates a BROADER THREAT AREA, including both Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. The NORTHWEST/NORTHEAST trajectory suggests a POTENTIAL THREAT TO INLAND TARGETS. Air defense systems should be ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

3. RUSSIAN FPV DRONE STRIKES ON ZAPORIZHZHIA DIRECTION (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Colonelcassad (01:33 UTC) provides video footage claiming to show Russian FPV drones targeting Ukrainian communication towers in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
   • Assessment: This represents another front on which FPV drones are being used, and shows Russia's aim to debilitate communications.

Updated Situation Summary

1. SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN LONG-RANGE STRIKE ON VOLGOGRAD OIL REFINERY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A significant attack deep inside Russia, targeting critical infrastructure.
2. SHIFTING DRONE THREAT IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The drone threat now encompasses a broader area, including both Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts, with a trajectory towards inland targets.
3. ZELENSKY HIGHLIGHTS UKRAINE'S DEPENDENCE ON US AID (HIGH POLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE, CONFIRMED): Underscores Ukraine's vulnerability and aims to influence US policy.
4. RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMED IN CHASIV YAR (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Claims of significant Russian gains in a strategically important town need urgent confirmation.
5. RUSSIAN FPV DRONE STRIKES IN KHARKIV AND ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLASTS(CONFIRMED): Ongoing, using anti-tank mines, and targeting communication towers.
6. RUTTE CALLS FOR INCREASED EUROPEAN DEFENSE SPENDING (CONFIRMED): Politically significant, no immediate tactical impact.
7. ALL PREVIOUS SITUATION UPDATES REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN HIGH AIR DEFENSE READINESS, ADJUST TO SHIFTING DRONE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Reposition air defense assets to cover the broader threat area in MYKOLAIV AND ODESA OBLASTS, as indicated by the updated drone trajectory.
   • Maintain vigilance across the southern regions, as the drone threat can shift rapidly.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and population centers.

2. ASSESS DAMAGE AND STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF VOLGOGRAD STRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence to determine the EXTENT OF DAMAGE to the Volgograd oil refinery.
   • Analyze the impact on Russian fuel supplies and logistics.
   • Assess the potential for further long-range strikes by Ukraine.
   • Prepare for potential Russian retaliation.

3. URGENTLY VERIFY CHASIV YAR SITUATION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence using all available sources (satellite imagery, human intelligence, signals intelligence) to confirm or refute the Russian claims of control in Chasiv Yar.
   • Assess the potential impact of a Russian breakthrough in this area on the overall Donetsk front.
   • Prepare contingency plans to reinforce Ukrainian defenses if the claims are confirmed.

4. MONITOR ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION FOR FURTHER FPV DRONE ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Increase reconnaissance in the Zaporizhzhia region to identify and counter Russian FPV drone operations.
   • Deploy counter-drone measures where possible to protect Ukrainian forces and equipment.

5. REINFORCE ZELENSKY'S MESSAGE TO US (HIGH POLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE, ONGOING): The urgency of the message must be communicated.

6. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). The IMMEDIATE PRIORITIES are responding to the SHIFTING DRONE THREAT in southern Ukraine, assessing the impact of the VOLGOGRAD STRIKE, and verifying the situation in CHASIV YAR. The LONG-TERM STRATEGIC CONCERN remains Ukraine's dependence on US aid.