Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 14, 2025, 21:36 UTC

Changes and New Information (21:07 UTC - 21:36 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:10 UTC) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast.
   • Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:23 UTC) reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast.
   • Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED Russian use of guided aerial bombs, targeting both DONETSK and SUMY OBLASTS. This represents a SIGNIFICANT THREAT to Ukrainian forces and infrastructure.

2. DRONE ACTIVITY, MYKOLAIV UPDATE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (21:11 UTC) reports 2 more drones approaching the Inhulskyi district.
   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (21:16 UTC) reports Mykolaivske is under attack, with 2 more drones flying in that direction.
   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (21:31 UTC) reports that Mykolaiv Oblast is currently clear of drones. 1 drone flew to Kirovohrad Oblast, 1 is circling near Kryvyi Rih, 4 are at the intersection of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts (northbound), 1 is heading to Poltava, and 4 are flying from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Poltava Oblast.
   • Assessment: The immediate threat to MYKOLAIV CITY appears to have DIMINISHED, but the broader threat to MYKOLAIV OBLAST and neighboring regions REMAINS. The drone activity is now dispersed across multiple regions.

3. DRONE THREAT, KIROVOHRAD OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:11 UTC) reports a drone threat to Kirovohrad Oblast from the south.
   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (21:31 UTC) mentioned 1 drone moved to the region.
   • Assessment: This confirms a NEW DRONE THREAT to KIROVOHRAD OBLAST.

4. DRONE THREATS, KRYVYI RIH, POLTAVA, MYKOLAIV (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:21 UTC) reports that the cities Kryvyi Rih, Poltava, and Mykolaiv are under threat.
   • Assessment: This confirms a new threat.

5. INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE UPDATE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Operativnyi ZSU (21:11 UTC) reports that Ukraine's infrastructure damage due to the war has increased to $170 billion as of November 2024, a $12.6 billion increase since the beginning of 2024. The largest losses are in housing, transportation, and energy.
   • Assessment: This quantifies the CONTINUING AND SIGNIFICANT impact of the war on Ukraine's infrastructure, highlighting the long-term economic consequences.

6. FIGHTING IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Voenkor Kotenok (21:17 UTC) reports on fighting in the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction:
     • Udachne: Russian forces have occupied several houses closer to the center and are fighting near the station.
     • Kotlyno: Russian forces have pushed Ukrainian forces out of the southern part.
     • Peschanoe: Fiercest fighting, with Ukrainian forces suffering heavy losses.
     • Dachenskoe: Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of the eastern part, but still control territory between Dachenskoe and Lysovka.
   • Assessment: This report claims RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the POKROVSK DIRECTION, with intense fighting ongoing. This REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION, but if true, indicates a SHIFT IN THE BATTLEFIELD DYNAMICS in this area.

7. RUSSIAN STATEMENTS ON JOURNALIST ATTACKS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS(21:18, 21:19, 21:22 UTC) Reports on statements by Maria Zakharova on the attack of the Russian journalist:
   • Claims that those responsible for the attack on a Russian journalist in Kursk Oblast will be punished.
   • Calls on "responsible states" to condemn the attacks.
   • Demands that UNESCO, OSCE, and UN officials condemn the attack on the First Channel crew.
   • Claims that further silence from international officials implies complicity.
   • Assessment: This is a PROPAGANDA EFFORT by Russia to portray itself as a victim and to pressure international organizations.

8. TRUMP'S COMMENTS (UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• RBC (21:24 UTC) Reports that Trump did not answer a direct question on Russia and Ukraine's fault in the war.
• Assessment: This shows uncertainty with U.S. policy.

Updated Situation Summary

1. POSSIBLE F-16 FRIENDLY FIRE INCIDENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): The repeated claim of a Ukrainian F-16 shot down by a Patriot missile due to missing Link 16 technology is a MAJOR CONCERN requiring URGENT INVESTIGATION.
2. CONTINUED DRONE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): MYKOLAIV CITY threat appears REDUCED, but the threat to MYKOLAIV OBLAST, KIROVOHRAD OBLAST, KRYVYI RIH, POLTAVA and neighboring regions REMAINS HIGH AND DISPERSED.
3. CHERNOBYL FIRE CONTAINED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The fire is localized, but vigilance is still required.
4. SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN UKRAINIAN DRONE CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The purchase of 760 additional drones significantly boosts Ukraine's drone arsenal.
5. RUSSIAN GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED attacks in DONETSK and SUMY OBLASTS.
6. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of Russian gains and intense fighting.
7. SIGNIFICANT INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): $170 billion in damage, increasing.
8. ALL OTHER PREVIOUS SITUATION UPDATES REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. LAUNCH IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION INTO POTENTIAL F-16 "FRIENDLY FIRE" INCIDENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect.

2. MAINTAIN EXTREME AIR DEFENSE READINESS, PRIORITIZE AFFECTED OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain maximum alert status for air defense systems in MYKOLAIV, KIROVOHRAD, DNIPROPETROVSK, DONETSK, POLTAVA, and SUMY OBLASTS, given the confirmed drone and guided bomb threats.
   • Deploy all available resources to DETECT, TRACK, AND INTERCEPT incoming drones and aircraft.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and population centers.
   • Issue public warnings and advise residents to take shelter.

3. CONTINUE MONITORING CHERNOBYL SITUATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations remain in effect.

4. INTEGRATE NEW DRONES INTO OPERATIONAL UNITS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect.

5. VERIFY CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy reconnaissance assets (drones, satellite imagery, human intelligence) to VERIFY the reported Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction.
   • Assess the impact of these potential advances on Ukrainian defensive positions and overall strategic balance.
   • Prepare counter-measures if the Russian advances are confirmed, including potential counter-attacks or reinforcement of defensive lines.

6. ADDRESS UKRAINIAN INFANTRY SHORTAGES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations remain in effect.

7. COUNTER RUSSIAN DRONE SUPERIORITY (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations remain in effect.

8. MAINTAIN DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations remain in effect.

9. DISREGARD RUSSIAN MoD PROPAGANDA (LOW PRIORITY): All previous recommendations remain in effect.

10. ADDRESS HUMANITARIAN AND LOGISTICAL ISSUES (HIGH PRIORITY): All previous recommendations remain in effect.

11. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The POTENTIAL F-16 "FRIENDLY FIRE" INCIDENT remains the TOP PRIORITY, requiring IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION. The DISPERSED AND CONTINUED DRONE THREAT across multiple regions and the INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS are now EXTREME PRIORITIES, requiring SUSTAINED AIR DEFENSE READINESS AND IMMEDIATE ACTION. The CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN THE POKROVSK DIRECTION also require IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION due to their potential strategic implications.