Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 14, 2025, 15:02 UTC

Changes Since 14:32 UTC (High Priority)

1. FURTHER KAB STRIKES REPORTED (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE):

   • Ukrainian Air Force (14:36 UTC) warns of ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY in the northeast. There is a THREAT OF AIR STRIKES for frontline regions.
   • Ukrainian Air Force (14:37 UTC, 14:44 UTC) confirms LAUNCHES OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation in NORTHERN KHARKIV OBLAST and DONETSK OBLAST.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES the CONTINUED AND INTENSE USE OF KABs by Russian forces, posing a SEVERE THREAT to Ukrainian positions and infrastructure. The targeting of northern Kharkiv Oblast is a NEW DEVELOPMENT and expands the geographical scope of these attacks.

2. GENERAL STAFF REPORT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (14:37 UTC) provides a comprehensive operational update as of 16:00 (UTC+2, 14:00 UTC). Key points:
     • 72 COMBAT CLASHES have occurred so far today.
     • Artillery and mortar attacks reported in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
     • Air strikes reported in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts (Myropilske, Vovchanski Khutory).
     • KUPYANSK DIRECTION: One Russian attack repelled near Zahryzove.
     • LYMAN DIRECTION: Five Russian attacks repelled near Novosergiyivka, Zeleny Hai, Boguslavka, Grekivka, and Kolodyazi. Two clashes are ongoing.
     • SIVERSK DIRECTION: One Russian attack repelled near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Hryhorivka. Two clashes are ongoing.
     • KRAMATORSK DIRECTION: One Russian attack repelled, two ongoing near Chasiv Yar.
     • TORETSK DIRECTION: Five Russian attacks repelled, three ongoing near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka.
     • POKROVSK DIRECTION: 23 Russian attacks reported, 20 repelled, three ongoing near Zelene Pole, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novopavlivka, Uspenivka, Novotroitske, Bogdanivka, Andriyivka, Dachne, and Shevchenko.
     • NOVOPAVLIVSK DIRECTION: 12 Russian attacks reported near Kostyantynopil and Burlatske. Fighting is ongoing.
     • HULYAIPOLE DIRECTION: Russian air strike with five KABs on Hulyaipole.
     • ORIKHIV AND PRIDNIPROVSK DIRECTIONS: No active Russian actions reported today.
     • KURSK DIRECTION: 11 combat clashes reported, four ongoing. 19 air strikes with 25 KABs reported.
   • Assessment: This report CONFIRMS INTENSE FIGHTING across multiple fronts, with the POKROVSK DIRECTION seeing the HIGHEST LEVEL OF RUSSIAN ACTIVITY. The CONTINUED USE OF KABs is a MAJOR CONCERN. The ONGOING FIGHTING in the Lyman and Novopavlivsk directions CORROBORATES earlier reports from Russian sources, indicating a SERIOUS SITUATION for Ukrainian forces in these areas.

3. REPORTED RUSSIAN CAPTURE OF DACHNE AND ZELENE POLE (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Kotsnews (14:41 UTC) and Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (14:48 UTC) claim that Russian forces have captured Dachne and Zelene Pole. Dachne is described as a large village west of Kurakhove, while Zelene Pole is located west of Velyka Novosilka.
   • Assessment: NEEDS VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this represents SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES and a FURTHER DETERIORATION of the Ukrainian defensive situation in the Donetsk region. The potential encirclement of Ukrainian forces near Kurakhove, as mentioned in the report, is a MAJOR CONCERN.

4. ZELENSKY AT MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • RBC-Україна (14:48 UTC) and Zelenskiy / Official (14:40) confirms Zelensky's participation in the Munich Security Conference.

5. ZELENSKY STATES NO PEACE DEAL TODAY (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • RBC-Україна (14:51 UTC) reports Zelensky stating that "today, unfortunately, we are not talking about a peace agreement." He emphasizes the need for strong support from Donald Trump.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (14:58) reports Zelensky is ready to meet with US Vice President, but is not ready to sign anything.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES the UNCERTAINTY surrounding potential negotiations and HIGHLIGHTS the CRITICAL ROLE of the US in any future peace process. Zelensky's comments suggest a CAUTIOUS APPROACH to any potential deals.

6. CHERNOBYL DRONE ATTACK INVESTIGATION (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• ASTRA (14:36 UTC) reports the Kyiv Regional Prosecutor's Office has opened a criminal case (war crime) concerning the drone attack.

7. UKRAINIAN POWS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (14:46) reports that more than 50 people from Central Asia are currently Ukrainian POWs. All of them were members of the Russian military.

8. POSSIBLE IEDS IN UKRAINE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
   • Николаевский Ванёк (14:46) reports that a woman was killed when she gave military personnel a bag that contained explosives.

Updated Situation Summary

• INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN AIR ATTACKS CONTINUE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirmed launches of KABs in northern Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. EXPANDED GEOGRAPHICAL SCOPE of attacks.
• INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian General Staff report confirms 72 COMBAT CLASHES, with the POKROVSK DIRECTION being the MOST ACTIVE.
• POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK (HIGH PRIORITY, NEEDS VERIFICATION): Claims of Russian capture of Dachne and Zelene Pole require URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this represents a MAJOR SETBACK for Ukrainian forces.
• ZELENSKY AT MUNICH, CAUTIOUS ON PEACE DEAL (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Zelensky's participation in the Munich Security Conference and his comments on peace negotiations underscore the COMPLEX DIPLOMATIC LANDSCAPE.
• CHERNOBYL DRONE ATTACK INVESTIGATION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):
• POSSIBLE IEDS IN UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, NEEDS VERIFICATION):

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME VIGILANCE AGAINST AIR ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain heightened air defense readiness across Ukraine, particularly in areas targeted by KAB strikes (Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy).
   • Issue and maintain public warnings to civilians in threatened areas.

2. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Urgently gather independent intelligence to confirm or refute the claimed Russian capture of Dachne and Zelene Pole.
   • Assess the impact on Ukrainian defensive positions and supply lines.
   • Prepare for potential counter-offensives or defensive adjustments.

3. MONITOR AND ASSESS DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Closely follow Zelensky's activities at the Munich Security Conference.
   • Gather intelligence on any potential shifts in US or European policy.

4. ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR IEDS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Immediately improve security protocols, inspecting any object.
   • Alert civilians.

5. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN AIR ATTACKS and the POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the Donetsk region are the MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. The ongoing fighting, diplomatic efforts, and potential for escalation require CONSTANT VIGILANCE AND RAPID RESPONSE CAPABILITIES.