Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 14, 2025, 06:32 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (06:02 UTC - 06:32 UTC, February 14)

Power Outage in Enerhodar After Attack on Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

• Mash na Donbasse (06:03 UTC): Reports that over 50,000 people were left without power after a Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) attack on the Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant. They claim 15 artillery strikes. Power was partially restored in Enerhodar, with the city hospital receiving power via a backup scheme.
• TASS (06:16 UTC): Reports that Enerhodar will disconnect water supply due to low voltage in the electrical grid following the AFU strikes on the Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant.
• TASS (06:21 UTC): Authorities stated that Enerhodar would cut off the water supply due to the reduced voltage.
• Assessment: This confirms a SIGNIFICANT POWER OUTAGE in Enerhodar and surrounding areas due to a Ukrainian attack on the Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant. The impact on civilian infrastructure, including water supply, highlights the humanitarian consequences of the conflict.

Ukrainian General Staff Operational Report (UPDATED IMAGES, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

• General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (06:03 UTC): Provides additional map images detailing the military situation in various sectors:
  • Kupyansk: (Multiple images show the same report) Ukrainian forces repelled attacks near Golubivka and Zagryzovo. Four enemy attacks in the past day.
  • Lyman: Enemy attacked seven times, attempting to penetrate defenses near Hrekivka, Novolyubivka, Yampolivka, and Kolodyazi.
  • Kramatorsk: Russian attacks near Chasiv Yar.
  • Pokrovsk: Ukrainian forces stopped 38 enemy offensives in the areas highlighted (Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin', Lysivka, Udachne, Uspenivka, Nadiivka, Andriivka, Dachne).
  • Siverskyi: An assault was repelled in the Bilohorivka area.
  • Toretsk: Enemy carried out fourteen attacks in the areas of settlements of Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka.
  • Novopavlivka: Ukrainian forces repelled 16 enemy attacks. The most active enemy advances were near the settlement of Zelenivka and in the direction of Burlatske.
  • Orikhiv: The enemy army did not conduct active offensive operations.
  • Huliaipole: Ukrainian forces repelled an attack in the Novosilka direction.
  • Prydniprovsky: The enemy army did not conduct active offensive operations.
  • Kharkiv: The enemy army did not conduct active offensive operations.
• Assessment: These images REINFORCE the previous report of INTENSE FIGHTING across multiple fronts, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction. The maps provide a more detailed visual representation of the situation, highlighting key areas of conflict and potential front lines.

Ukrainian Drone Attack Claims (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES)

• Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights (06:11 UTC): Reports overnight drone attacks on targets in Russia. Claims drones targeted the Krasnodar region, specifically the "Slovyansk ECO" oil refinery. This refinery, which reportedly processes 9% of Russian oil, has been attacked twice in 2024. The regional operational headquarters confirmed an attack but did not specify the target.
• RBK-Ukraine (06:12 UTC): Reports that the "Andreapol" oil pumping station in the Tver region was hit.
• Assessment: These reports suggest damage to oil infrastructures, including the second strike on the "Slovyansk ECO".

Ukrainian General Staff Report on Drone Attacks (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

• Air Force Command of UA Armed Forces (06:29 UTC): Reports that, as of 08:30, 73 Shahed-type UAVs and other types of drones were shot down in multiple regions. A total of 133 drones and "drone imitators" were launched from multiple locations in Russia. 58 "drone imitators" were "lost locally" without negative consequences. Affected regions include Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv.
• Operational ZSU (06:30 UTC): Repeats the claim of 73 out of 133 drones shot down, with 58 "imitation" drones "lost locally" without negative consequences.
• RBK-Ukraine (06:31 UTC): Also reports that 73 out of 133 drones were shot down, with 58 "imitation" drones "lost locally" without negative consequences. Confirms that the affected regions include Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv.
• Assessment: This confirms that an overnight DRONE ATTACK happened in the listed areas.

New Information on Previous Developments

• Oleh Synyehubov, Kharkiv Regional State Administration (06:26 UTC): Provides an updated summary of Russian attacks in the Kharkiv region on February 13th:
  • Kupyansk: Shelling (likely MLRS) destroyed a private house and garage, and damaged two other houses. Two men, aged 46 and 76, were injured, with the latter hospitalized. (04:30)
  • Bohodukhiv: Geran-2 drone debris destroyed an outbuilding and damaged 5 houses, a tractor, and a car. An 18-year-old and a 16-year-old suffered acute stress reactions. (01:40)
  • Velykyi Burluk: KAB strike partially destroyed a private house and three outbuildings, and damaged two houses and a car. (18:30)
  • Monachynivka: KAB strike partially destroyed a private house. (17:50)
  • Kindrashivka: KAB strike partially damaged a non-operational kindergarten. (17:45)
  • Nyzhnya Zhuravka: KAB strike on the ground. (17:00)
  • Kozacha Lopan': Artillery shelling damaged a private house. An 83-year-old woman was injured and hospitalized. (15:30)
  • Karaychne: FPV drone strike burned a car and an outbuilding. (13:00)
  • Lyptsi: MLRS shelling destroyed a private house. (12:10)
  • Skoryky: FPV drone strike damaged a private house. (12:00)
  • Vesele: Artillery shells hit a field. (10:00)
  • No active enemy actions in the Kharkiv direction.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled attacks near Golubivka and Zagryzovo in the Kupyansk direction.
  • 23 people evacuated from the Kupyansk and Borivsky directions.
• Assessment: This detailed report confirms CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS in the Kharkiv region, targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. The use of KABs (guided aerial bombs) highlights the ongoing threat from Russian air power.

Other Developments

• STERNENKO (06:07 UTC): Calls for donations to the "rusorez" (likely a crowdfunding campaign for weapons or equipment).
• Dva Mayora (06:08 UTC): Claims that preparations are underway to promote Valery Zaluzhny as President of Ukraine. Asserts that this is in the interest of the UK, which "cultivated" Zaluzhny (who is currently at the Ukrainian Embassy in London). Claims that Zaluzhny is popular in Ukraine and more dangerous to Russia than Zelensky.
• Rybar (06:15 UTC): Discusses the historical context of the Battle of Kalka, claiming the Orda were not yet Muslim. Questions a painting depicting a feast on the bodies of Russian princes, suggesting it glorifies violence against Russians.
• 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (06:16 UTC): Posts photos and a statement about awarding medals to soldiers for their service.
• Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny (06:16 UTC): Reports that Russian security forces detained two Russians involved in an attempt to set fire to military equipment at a military unit in Angarsk. Claims the suspects confessed, were involved with Ukrainian intelligence (GUR), and planned to receive a reward of about 30,000 rubles.
• Colonelcassad (06:18 UTC): Posts a video of a military funeral, commenting on it as "The result of the overdue President Zelensky's rule in all its glory."
• Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine (06:28 UTC): Reports continued Russian fire on Ukrainian positions and frontline settlements in the Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kherson regions. Claims over 300 artillery strikes. Reports 353 FPV drone strikes and over 350 fragmentation munition drops. Claims 15 KAB strikes and 40 unguided air rocket strikes in the Zaporizhzhia region. Reports rotational activities and ongoing reconnaissance.
• Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights (06:29 UTC): Claims the Pentagon Head does not rule out giving Ukraine nuclear weapons, stressing that it depends on Trump.
• RBK-Ukraine (06:31 UTC): Reports that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested a multi-stage resolution to the war in Ukraine. The first stage is a ceasefire, followed by discussions on territorial claims, arms control, language and cultural issues, aid corridors, and guarantees that the parties will not target energy infrastructure. Europe should also provide long-term security guarantees for Ukraine.
• Shef Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦(06:27): The number of dead Russians in the past month never dropped below a thousand.

Updated Situation Summary

• ENERHODAR POWER OUTAGE (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed Ukrainian attacks on the Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant have caused a SIGNIFICANT POWER OUTAGE in Enerhodar and surrounding areas, impacting water supply and civilian infrastructure.
• CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING (HIGH PRIORITY): The Ukrainian General Staff report and accompanying maps REINFORCE the previous assessment of intense fighting across multiple fronts, with the Pokrovsk direction remaining a focal point.
• KHARKIV REGION UNDER ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY): Detailed reports confirm CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS in the Kharkiv region, targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. The use of KABs (guided aerial bombs) remains a significant threat.
• UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS INSIDE RUSSIA (CONFIRMED): Ukrainian sources claim drone attacks on Russian territory, including an oil refinery and an oil pumping station. This marks an expansion of the operational range of Ukrainian drone warfare.
• HIGH CASUALTIES (CONFIRMED): Russian casualties have not decreased in the past month.
• US Secretary of State Outlines Multi-Stage Resolution Plan (CONFIRMED): Marco Rubio suggests a phased approach to resolving the conflict, starting with a ceasefire and followed by negotiations on various issues.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS ENERHODAR POWER OUTAGE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Assess the extent of damage to the Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant and the impact on power supply.
   • Prioritize humanitarian assistance to affected civilian populations, particularly regarding water supply.
   • Investigate the circumstances of the attack and assess the potential for future attacks on critical infrastructure.

2. MAINTAIN FOCUS ON VERIFYING PREVIOUS CLAIMS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Continue efforts to verify the reported destruction of a US-supplied Bradley IFV in the Kursk region.
   • Continue efforts to verify the claimed Russian breakthroughs near Dvorichna and Sverdlykove.

3. ANALYZE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence on the range, payload, and targeting capabilities of Ukrainian drones.
   • Assess the potential for future attacks on Russian infrastructure and military targets.
   • Develop countermeasures to mitigate the threat from Ukrainian drones.

4. MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS IN KHARKIV REGION (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to monitor the situation in the Kharkiv region, paying close attention to Russian attacks and potential offensive operations.
   • Reinforce air defense and early warning systems in the region.

5. ASSESS IMPLICATIONS OF US SECRETARY OF STATE'S PROPOSAL (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Analyze Marco Rubio's multi-stage resolution plan and its potential implications for Ukraine.
   • Assess the feasibility of a ceasefire and subsequent negotiations.

6. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND ADJUST RECOMMENDATIONS AS NEEDED.

The situation remains highly volatile, with intense fighting ongoing and significant developments in both the military and political spheres. The power outage in Enerhodar, the continued attacks in the Kharkiv region, and the Ukrainian drone attacks inside Russia are the most pressing issues requiring immediate attention. The US Secretary of State's proposal for a multi-stage resolution to the conflict offers a potential path forward, but its feasibility and implications need careful consideration.