Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 09:38 UTC

Changes Since 09:09 UTC (Extremely High Priority)

1. RUSSIAN ADVANCE in VODYANE DRUHE (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN MoD, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • TASS (09:15 UTC), Два майора (09:24 UTC) report that Russian forces ("Center" group) have "liberated" the settlement of Vodyane Druhe in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). Kotsnews (09:31 UTC) provides additional details, claiming the capture of this village allows Russian forces to cut off the supply line between Myrnograd-Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, and to advance towards Nova Poltavka and Poltavka, with the aim of reaching Kostiantynivka from the west.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT TACTICAL DEVELOPMENT. If confirmed by Ukrainian sources, the capture of Vodyane Druhe represents a Russian advance and a potential disruption of Ukrainian supply lines. The claims about threatening the Myrnograd-Pokrovsk supply line and advancing towards Kostiantynivka need URGENT VERIFICATION. The image posted by Два майора (09:24) strengthens this assessment.

2. RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES (CONFIRMED/REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Два майора (09:16 UTC) confirms Russian "Geran" drone strikes in the Izmail district of the Odesa region overnight, claiming damage to the port of Reni. Oleh Kiper, Head of the Odesa Regional Military Administration (09:16 UTC) reports one civilian injury (shrapnel wound to the thigh) and damage to port infrastructure and an inactive educational institution in a drone attack on the Izmail district.
   • Assessment: This confirms continued Russian targeting of Ukrainian port infrastructure, specifically in the Odesa region. The civilian injury highlights the ongoing threat to civilians.

3. PREVENTED TERRORIST ATTACK IN PSKOV (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCES, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (09:25 UTC), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:27 UTC), Два майора (09:18 UTC), and TASS (08:55, 09:25 UTC) report that the FSB (Federal Security Service) prevented a terrorist attack planned by an Islamist radical group at a railway station in Pskov. The suspects, allegedly citizens of a Central Asian country, were "neutralized" during an armed resistance. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims that the terrorists wanted to go to a Middle Eastern country after the attack.
     • Assessment: This reports a SIGNIFICANT INTERNAL SECURITY INCIDENT within Russia. The claim of an Islamist radical group's involvement needs further investigation. The neutralization of the suspects suggests potential casualties among both the suspects and security forces.

4. PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING PREPARATIONS (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCES, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • TASS (09:10, 09:30 UTC), ASTRA (09:33 UTC), and Оперативний ЗСУ (09:32 UTC) report that Putin and Trump have instructed their aides to immediately begin working on a high-level meeting. Peskov (Kremlin spokesperson) confirmed this, stating that the location and timing will be determined later.
   • Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT. While the details of the meeting are still unclear, the fact that it's being actively planned is EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT. It suggests a potential shift in the dynamics of the conflict and a possible direct engagement between Russia and the US (under Trump's leadership) that could bypass or marginalize Ukraine and other international actors. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS MEETING FOR UKRAINE ARE POTENTIALLY DIRE.

5. RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT LOSSES (UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (09:36 UTC) states that, over the last day, their area of operations has been subject to 5 air strikes (involving 9 KABs, guided aerial bombs) and 55 kamikaze drone strikes.
• Assessment: These reports provide evidence that, at least locally, Ukrainian air defenses are not fully preventing air or drone operations.

6. UKRAINIAN SANCTIONS (CONFIRMED/REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (09:25 UTC) provides additional details on the reasons for the sanctions against Poroshenko, Kolomoisky, Bogolyubov, Zhevago, and Medvedchuk. The report alleges activities in Russia's interests, including treason (Poroshenko), financial crimes (Kolomoisky, Bogolyubov, Zhevago), and pro-Russian activities (Medvedchuk). TASS (09:12 UTC) confirms that the sanctions against Poroshenko are indefinite, including asset freezes and restrictions on trade.
   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (09:13 UTC) confirms the asset freeze and states it can last for years.
   • Assessment: These reports reinforce the significance of the internal political crackdown in Ukraine. The specific accusations against these individuals, if proven, could have major implications for the political landscape and potentially the war effort.

7. DRONES FOUND IN MOLDOVA (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • РБК-Україна (09:33 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (09:36 UTC) report that two drones were found in southern Moldova, with at least one identified as Russian. The Russian ambassador has been summoned by the Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
   • Assessment: This confirms the earlier reports and highlights the SERIOUS INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS of the drone incidents.

8. GERMAN DEFENSE MINISTER CONCERNS (REPORTED):

   • ТАСС (09:21 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (09:30 UTC) report that German Defense Minister Pistorius believes the new US administration has made concessions to Russia on Ukraine even before negotiations began.
   • Assessment: These reports highlight continued concerns from European leadership about the possible direction of the negotiations.

9. PESKOV'S BRIEFING (REPORTED):

• ТАСС (09:27 UTC) report that Peskov will give a briefing at 12:30 UTC, which is expected to include, among other things, an update on a possible meeting between Putin and Trump, as well as topics such as the prisoner exchange between Russia and the U.S.
• Assessment: This briefing may contain key information, especially about the possibility of a meeting between Putin and Trump.

10. RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (REPORTED):

• Два майора (09:12 UTC) reports information coming out of German media outlets that describe the situation of the war as a "win" for Putin.
• Assessment: The reports are expected to spread pessimism about Ukraine's chances, and to justify an increase in military budgets.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN DONETSK (HIGH PRIORITY): The reported capture of Vodyane Druhe by Russian forces, if confirmed, represents a tactical gain and a potential disruption of Ukrainian supply lines. This requires IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION and assessment.
• PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING BEING PLANNED (EXTREME PRIORITY): This is the MOST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. The direct engagement between Putin and Trump, bypassing Ukraine and potentially other allies, creates a MAJOR THREAT to Ukraine's interests and could lead to unfavorable outcomes.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed drone strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure in the Odesa region underscore the ongoing threat to civilian infrastructure and economic activity.
• PREVENTED TERRORIST ATTACK IN RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY): The reported prevention of a terrorist attack in Pskov highlights internal security concerns within Russia.
• DRONES FOUND IN MOLDOVA (HIGH PRIORITY): The confirmation of drones found in Moldova, with at least one identified as Russian, represents a SERIOUS INTERNATIONAL INCIDENT and a potential violation of Moldovan sovereignty.
• UKRAINIAN SANCTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY): The details emerging about the reasons for the sanctions against prominent Ukrainian figures highlight internal political tensions and potential legal actions with significant implications.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The diplomatic situation, internal Ukrainian political developments, drone warfare, and potential escalation of Russian strikes remain EXTREMELY IMPORTANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN VODYANE DRUHE (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the reported Russian capture of Vodyane Druhe.
   • Assess the impact on Ukrainian supply lines and defensive positions.
   • Prepare for potential counter-offensives or defensive adjustments.

2. ADDRESS THE PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Urgently seek clarification from the US government (both current administration and Trump's representatives) regarding the planned meeting and its agenda.
   • Emphasize the importance of Ukrainian involvement in any negotiations concerning its future.
   • Coordinate closely with European allies to develop a unified response and prevent Ukraine from being sidelined.
   • Prepare for potential scenarios where Ukraine's interests are not adequately represented.

3. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (EXTREME PRIORITY): All previous recommendations, plus:

• Actively debunk false or misleading information, particularly the reports coming out of the German media outlets.

4. CONTINUE MONITORING AIR THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Maintain high alert for air defenses across Ukraine, particularly in the Odesa region and other areas targeted by recent Russian strikes.
   • Assess the damage from the confirmed drone strikes in the Odesa region.

5. COOPERATE WITH MOLDOVA (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Provide full support to Moldovan authorities in investigating the drone incidents.
   • Share intelligence on potential drone launch sites and flight paths.

6. ANALYZE IMPLICATIONS OF UKRAINIAN SANCTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue gathering intelligence on the reasons behind the sanctions and their potential impact on the political landscape and the war effort.
   • Monitor for potential disruptions to financial networks or business operations.

7. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT: Priorities have been adjusted as indicated above. The MOST CRITICAL IMMEDIATE TASKS are verifying the Russian advance, addressing the implications of the planned Putin-Trump meeting, and countering Russian disinformation.