Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 03:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (02:38 UTC - 03:08 UTC, February 13)

Lipetsk Drone Attack - Further Developments

• "Red" Threat Level Lifted (CONFIRMED): Governor Artamonov (02:53 UTC) announced the lifting of the "red" threat level ("Threat of UAV attack") in previously declared areas. A "yellow" level ("Air Danger") remains in effect for the entire Lipetsk region.

  • Assessment: This indicates a reduction in the immediate threat of further drone attacks in specific areas, but continued vigilance is required across the region. The lowering of the threat level suggests that the immediate wave of attacks may have subsided, but the overall risk remains.

• Further Confirmation of Damage (CONFIRMED): RBK-Ukraina (02:57 UTC, 03:02 UTC) reiterates the reports of drone debris falling on two private homes and injuring an employee at the Lipetsk aeration station.

  • Assessment: Continues building evidence for the effects of the attack.

Diplomatic Activity and US Policy

• Kellogg Visit to Europe and Ukraine (CONFIRMED): RBK-Ukraina (02:56 UTC) reports that US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg will visit Germany, Belgium, and Ukraine between February 13-22. The stated purpose is to promote Trump's goal of ending the Russia-Ukraine war and ensuring "peace through strength." He will participate in the Munich Security Conference and visit NATO and EU headquarters. In Ukraine, he will meet with government officials and citizens. The State Department emphasizes Trump's desire to end the fighting and support a long-term solution, and that Kellogg is "set for tough diplomacy."
  • Assessment: This confirms a high-level US diplomatic effort focused on achieving a negotiated settlement. Kellogg's visit and the emphasis on "tough diplomacy" signal a proactive approach from a potential future Trump administration. This reinforces the previous assessment of a potential shift in US policy. The visits to NATO and EU headquarters suggest an attempt to coordinate with allies on this approach. The meetings in Ukraine will be crucial for understanding the Ukrainian perspective and gauging their willingness to accept a negotiated settlement that may involve concessions.

Russian Military Operations and Claims

• Dzerzhinsk Assault Video (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): TASS (02:51 UTC) released a video showing Russian assault troops purportedly describing how they broke through Ukrainian defenses during the "liberation" of Dzerzhinsk. The video includes footage of destroyed buildings, military vehicles, drone-dropped munitions, and a Russian flag.
  • Assessment: This is presented from a Russian perspective and aims to portray a successful offensive operation. The footage of urban warfare, drone usage, and defensive measures provides insights into Russian tactics. Independent verification of the specific claims of territorial gains is required.

Other Developments

• US Army OSINT Standardization (REPORTED): Colonelcassad (03:03 UTC) reports on a US Congressional initiative to standardize the procurement of Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) tools within the US Army. The initiative aims to improve the Army's ability to analyze publicly available information, including news and social media.

  • Assessment: This indicates a growing recognition of the importance of OSINT in modern warfare. The standardization effort suggests a move towards more systematic and widespread use of OSINT within the US military. This could enhance the US's ability to gather intelligence, track enemy movements, and understand the information environment.

• Western Armor Malfunctions (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): TASS (03:05 UTC) claims that Western armored vehicles supplied to Ukraine are breaking down due to the cold weather, citing military expert Andrei Marochko.

  • Assessment: This is a claim from a Russian source and should be treated with skepticism. While cold weather can affect military equipment, the extent of the claimed malfunctions needs independent verification. This could be an attempt to undermine the effectiveness of Western military aid.

Updated Situation Summary

• LIPETSK DRONE ATTACK AFTERMATH (HIGH PRIORITY): The immediate threat level has been reduced, but the overall risk remains. Further confirmations of damage and casualties continue.
• INCREASED AIR THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.
• DRONE WARFARE CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.
• US DIPLOMATIC PUSH FOR NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY): US Special Envoy Kellogg's upcoming visit to Europe and Ukraine confirms a high-level diplomatic effort aimed at ending the war, reinforcing the possibility of a shift in US policy.
• RUSSIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS (REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Russian sources continue to claim successes, including the capture of Dzerzhinsk.
• US MILITARY FOCUS ON OSINT (REPORTED): The US Army is considering standardizing the procurement of OSINT tools, reflecting the growing importance of open-source intelligence.
• POTENTIAL PROBLEMS FOR UKRAINIAN ARMOR (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Claims of Western armor breaking down due to cold weather require verification.

Updated Recommendations

1. LIPETSK INVESTIGATION (CONTINUE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue all previous efforts.
   • Monitor for any residual threats despite the reduced threat level.
   • Accelerate damage assessment and repair efforts.

2. ADDRESS INCREASED AIR THREAT (IMMEDIATE ACTION, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Maintain all previous actions.

3. VERIFY DRONE WARFARE CLAIMS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts.

4. ANALYZE AND PREPARE FOR US DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND OVERRIDING ACTION):

   • Fully prepare for Kellogg's visit, anticipating "tough diplomacy."
   • Develop a clear and unified position on potential negotiations and concessions.
   • Coordinate with allies to present a united front.
   • Assess the potential impact of a negotiated settlement on Ukraine's long-term security and territorial integrity.
   • Gather any information, and make a detailed agenda.

5. INVESTIGATE GERMAN ROLE IN BLACK SEA (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts.

6. VERIFY RUSSIAN MILITARY CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Use independent intelligence sources to verify the Russian claims regarding Dzerzhinsk and other areas.
   • Assess the impact of any confirmed Russian advances on the overall battlefield situation.

7. ASSESS POTENTIAL FOR OSINT (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

• Consider increasing Ukrainian OSINT programs, and standardizing processes.

8. INVESTIGATE CLAIMS OF WESTERN ARMOR MALFUNCTIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Use independent sources to verify the Russian claims.
   • Assess the operational impact of any confirmed equipment failures.
   • Develop mitigation strategies if necessary.

9. MAINTAIN PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): The US diplomatic initiative remains the most critical priority, followed by the increased air threat and the Lipetsk attack investigation. The evolving situation requires constant monitoring and adaptation.