Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 02:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (01:38 UTC - 02:08 UTC, February 13)

Lipetsk Oblast Drone Attack - Continued Confirmation and Damage Assessment

• Power Outages Confirmed (REPEAT CONFIRMATION): Both Governor Artamonov (01:39 UTC) and RBC-Ukraine (01:44 UTC) reiterate the confirmation of power outages in several districts of Lipetsk due to the drone attack.

  • Assessment: This reinforces the previous assessment of infrastructure damage. The repeated confirmation strengthens the reliability of this information.

• Drone Debris (CONFIRMED): Governor Artamonov (01:49 UTC) reports that emergency services are investigating reports of drone debris falling in Lipetsk and the Lipetsk municipal district. He reiterates safety warnings to the public.

  • Assessment: This provides physical evidence of the drone attack, confirming that drones reached the area. The warning to the public suggests potential unexploded ordnance or hazardous materials. This increases the importance of analyzing debris to understand the drone type and payload.

• Tractor Factory Speculation (REPORTED, UNCONFIRMED): RBC-Ukraine (01:51 UTC) reports online speculation that the target of the drone attack in Lipetsk might be the tractor factory. They also show additional footage of the "cotton" (explosions) in Lipetsk.

  • Assessment: This is unconfirmed speculation, but it's a plausible target given the potential military applications of a tractor factory (conversion to produce or repair military vehicles). This requires immediate investigation. If confirmed, it would significantly raise the strategic importance of the attack.

New Drone Activity - Expanding Threat

• Kirovohrad Oblast (NEW THREAT): The Ukrainian Air Force (01:52 UTC) warns of a drone threat in Kirovohrad Oblast.

  • Assessment: This indicates a further expansion of the drone attack westward into central Ukraine. This stretches Ukrainian air defenses and increases the potential targets.

• Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts (UPDATED MOVEMENT): The Ukrainian Air Force (01:55 UTC) provides updated movement information:

  • Drones in Sumy Oblast moving eastward.
  • Drones in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast moving northward.
  • Assessment: This suggests a complex and evolving drone attack pattern. The eastward movement in Sumy is unusual and may indicate an attempt to bypass air defenses or target areas closer to the Russian border. The northward movement in Dnipropetrovsk could threaten key industrial or infrastructure targets.

Other Developments

• Velyka Novosilka Video (PROPAGANDA): Colonelcassad (01:44 UTC) posts a propaganda video about the capture of Velyka Novosilka, highlighting a soldier who survived a headshot and the "cowardice" of Ukrainian forces.

  • Assessment: This is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and demonizing Ukrainian forces. The claim of Ukrainian forces "immediately running away" should be treated with extreme skepticism. The capture of Velyka Novosilka, if true, is strategically important, but this video's portrayal is heavily biased. The claim that it was a logistics hub must be assessed.

• FSB Arrest (IRRELEVANT): TASS (01:47 UTC) reports on the sentencing of a member of an extremist organization in the Amur region for preparing a terrorist attack.

  • Assessment: This is not directly related to the military situation in Ukraine, although it highlights ongoing internal security concerns within Russia.

• Moscow Court Arrests Assets(IRRELEVANT): TASS(02:04 UTC) Reports the asset freeze of the FSIN's Head of Digital.

  • Assessment: This information is outside of the scope of this military analysis.

• Airstrike video, location unknown (POTENTIALLY RELEVANT): Colonelcassad (02:03 UTC) shared a video claiming to show a planning air bomb hitting Ukrainian positions, which may have been an ODAB (thermobaric bomb).

  • Assessment: It's significant as thermobaric weapons cause massive damage, and their use should be monitored. The type of strike needs to be confirmed.

Updated Situation Summary

• Lipetsk Drone Attack (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed drone attack with power outages and debris found. Speculation about the tractor factory as a target.
• Expanding Drone Threat: New drone activity in Kirovohrad Oblast. Complex drone movements in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
• Velyka Novosilka: Propaganda video from Russian sources about the capture.
• Airstrike: Video shared by Colonelcassad, requires analysis to understand its relevance.

Updated Recommendations

1. Lipetsk Attack Investigation (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND OVERRIDING ACTION):

   • Continue all previous efforts to characterize the attack, determine drone origin, assess damage, and monitor Russian responses.
   • Investigate the tractor factory as a potential target. Use all available intelligence resources (satellite imagery, HUMINT, open-source intelligence).
   • Analyze drone debris to determine type, payload, and origin. This is CRITICAL for understanding Ukrainian capabilities.

2. Monitor Expanding Drone Threat (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Track drone movements in Kirovohrad, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
   • Prioritize air defense resources to protect potential targets in these areas.
   • Issue public warnings as necessary.

3. Velyka Novosilka Assessment (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Independently verify the Russian claim of capturing Velyka Novosilka.
   • Assess the claim that it was a logistics hub, and if true, evaluate the impact of its loss.
   • Disregard propaganda elements of the Colonelcassad video.

4. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). The Lipetsk attack remains the dominant development. The expanding drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine is a growing concern and requires close monitoring. The potential targeting of the Lipetsk tractor factory, if confirmed, would represent a significant escalation. The situation remains highly dynamic and fluid.

5. Analyze Airstrike Video (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Determine the weapon used.
   • Geolocate the strike.
   • Assess the target.
   • Evaluate the strategic impact of the strike.