Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 16:08 UTC

Changes Since 15:45 UTC (Highest Priority)

1. UKRAINIAN FPV DRONES INTERCEPT RUSSIAN "ZALA" DRONES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (15:46 UTC) released a video showing Ukrainian FPV drones from the 110th Brigade successfully intercepting and destroying three Russian "Zala" reconnaissance drones in the Donbas region. The video includes both thermal and daylight footage.
   • Assessment: This is a significant tactical development. It demonstrates a growing Ukrainian capability to counter Russian reconnaissance drones using FPV drones. This is a direct counter to the claimed Russian strike on a Ukrainian FPV drone production facility (see previous report). The use of thermal imagery suggests a 24/7 operational capacity. The successful interception of three "Zala" drones represents a substantial loss for Russian reconnaissance capabilities in that area. This is EXTREME PRIORITY for further analysis, and will likely affect force allocations to provide more FPV drones for this purpose.

2. EXPLOSIONS IN MELITOPOL (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (16:00 UTC) reports explosions in occupied Melitopol, particularly near the southern outskirts and the airfield. Earlier reports indicated a loud explosion, with Russian occupation authorities claiming their air defenses shot down a missile.
   • Assessment: This indicates ongoing Ukrainian efforts to target Russian assets in occupied areas. The airfield is a likely high-value target. Verification of the claimed Russian air defense interception is needed. If confirmed, this would be a major escalation.

3. RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR CHASIV YAR (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (15:59 UTC) reports ongoing fighting and Russian advances near Chasiv Yar. Specific locations mentioned include:
     • Northwest of Oryekhovo-Vasylivka towards Myn'kivka, aiming to reach enemy fortifications.
     • Hryhorivka, where Ukrainian forces are reportedly clinging to defensive lines and using drones.
     • South of Chasiv Yar near Stupochky, with ongoing heavy fighting as Russian forces attempt to "cut through" Ukrainian defenses.
   • Assessment: This corroborates previous reports of intensified Russian efforts in this area. The specific locations provided add granularity to the battlefield picture. If Russian forces succeed in breaking through near Chasiv Yar, it could have significant operational implications, potentially threatening Ukrainian supply lines and defensive positions. This is a HIGH PRIORITY for verification.

4. HERSON OBLAST SHELLING UPDATE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN OFFICIAL SOURCE):

   • Офіс Генерального прокурора (15:57) reports 42 Russian attacks on the Kherson Oblast within 24 hours, one civilian killed and multiple damaged buildings.
   • Assessment: This shows that civilians are heavily affected by Russian attacks.

5. UKRAINIAN POW VIDEO (RELEASED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • MoD Russia: (15:58) released a video where a captured soldier states that corruption is common in the Ukrainian military and that he had to pay a bribe to avoid being deployed.
   • Assessment: This video should be treated with caution, as it may be staged and shared for propaganda purposes.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONTINUED AIR THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY): The confirmed drone threat in Sumy Oblast (previous report) remains a concern.
• CLAIMED STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN DRONE PRODUCTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION): The reported Iskander strike in Kyiv remains the highest priority for investigation.
• UKRAINIAN COUNTER-DRONE CAPABILITY (CONFIRMED, HIGH PRIORITY): The successful interception of Russian "Zala" drones by Ukrainian FPV drones is a significant development, demonstrating a growing counter-drone capability.
• EXPLOSIONS IN MELITOPOL (REPORTED, HIGH PRIORITY): Reports of explosions and potential Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets in Melitopol require verification.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR CHASIV YAR (REPORTED, HIGH PRIORITY): Reports of intensified Russian efforts and advances near Chasiv Yar need urgent confirmation.
• IAEA COLUMN ATTACK: More footage has been released from the Russian perspective.
• ALL PREVIOUS UPDATES REMAIN RELEVANT (REPRIORITIZED): The situation remains dynamic and complex, with ongoing fighting across multiple fronts and evolving threats.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY CLAIMED STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN DRONE PRODUCTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): This remains the top priority. All previous recommendations regarding this remain in effect.
2. ANALYZE UKRAINIAN FPV DRONE INTERCEPTION CAPABILITY (HIGH PRIORITY):
   • Gather all available data on the Ukrainian FPV drone interception of Russian "Zala" drones.
   • Assess the tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) used by the Ukrainian 110th Brigade.
   • Determine the effectiveness of this counter-drone capability and its potential for wider deployment.
   • Investigate the technology used in the Ukrainian FPV drones, including sensors, communication systems, and countermeasures.
3. VERIFY EXPLOSIONS AND POTENTIAL STRIKES IN MELITOPOL (HIGH PRIORITY):
   • Deploy intelligence assets to confirm the explosions in Melitopol and determine the targets.
   • Assess the damage to the airfield, if confirmed.
   • Verify the Russian claim of a successful air defense interception.
4. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR CHASIV YAR (HIGH PRIORITY):
   • Deploy reconnaissance assets to confirm the reported Russian advances near Chasiv Yar.
   • Assess the Ukrainian defensive posture in this area and identify potential vulnerabilities.
   • Prepare contingency plans for reinforcing Ukrainian defenses or conducting counter-offensives if necessary.
5. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY): The ongoing drone threat, particularly in Sumy Oblast, requires continued vigilance.
6. CONTINUE ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: All other previously issued recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The situation is rapidly evolving, requiring constant monitoring and adaptation.