Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 14:38 UTC

Changes Since 14:08 UTC (Highest Priority)

1. RUSSIAN FPV DRONE DESTROYS UKRAINIAN M119 HOWITZER (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO EVIDENCE):

   • TASS (14:09 UTC) provides a video report showing a Russian FPV drone destroying a Ukrainian M119 howitzer in Kharkiv Oblast.
   • Assessment: The video provides visual evidence of the engagement, increasing the credibility of the claim. This confirms the continued use of FPV drones by Russian forces to target Ukrainian artillery. The loss of an M119 howitzer, while not strategically decisive, represents a tactical success for Russia and a loss of a valuable asset for Ukraine. The location in Kharkiv Oblast is consistent with ongoing fighting in the region.

2. UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE REPORTS KAB LAUNCHES (CONFIRMED, OFFICIAL):

   • Ukrainian Air Force (14:34 UTC) reports the launch of KABs (guided aerial bombs) in Kharkiv Oblast.
     • Ukrainian Air Force (14:36 UTC) reports a launch of KABs in Donetsk Oblast.
   • Assessment: This confirms the ongoing use of guided aerial bombs by Russian forces, posing a significant threat to Ukrainian positions and infrastructure.

3. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR UROZHAINE (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Воин DV (14:08 UTC) provides a detailed report on the situation on the South Donetsk front, claiming significant Russian advances. Specifically:
     • Northwest of Zelenovka, Russian forces are advancing towards Konstantynopol, claiming to have destroyed two Ukrainian pickup trucks and up to a platoon of personnel from the 79th Air Assault Brigade. They acknowledge Ukrainian reports of this advance.
     • North of Vremivka, Russian forces claim to have advanced up to 1 km in depth and 1.5 km along the front, capturing heights and clearing several forest belts. They claim to have destroyed up to a platoon of personnel and three vehicles.
     • On the Vremivka-Temirivka axis, they claim to have cleared several forest belts and captured Ukrainian strongholds, destroying up to a platoon of personnel and several pickup trucks.
     • They claim artillery and drones inflicted significant casualties on Ukrainian forces, destroying a T-72 tank, an Archer self-propelled howitzer, a mortar, seven vehicles, and a quad bike, along with two M-198 towed howitzers.
     • They claim that Zelenskyy appointed Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev as commander of the "Velyka Novosilka" tactical group due to the critical situation.
   • Assessment: These are significant claims requiring urgent verification. If confirmed, they represent substantial Russian gains and a major setback for Ukrainian forces in the South Donetsk region. The reported appointment of General Nayev suggests a high level of concern within the Ukrainian command. However, these claims are from a Russian source and should be treated with caution until independently verified.

4. RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR ANDRIIVKA (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MAP EVIDENCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (14:04) reports an advance north of Andreevka, liberating enemy fortifications. A map is provided.
   • Assessment: This reinforces the earlier claims of a Russian advance near Kurakhove and Andriivka. This requires verification. The provided map is a useful, but unverified, starting point for confirming or refuting the claim.

5. EVACUATION OF CIVILIANS (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO EVIDENCE):

   • Два майора (14:16 UTC) shows a video of a Russian soldier reporting the evacuation of civilians from the South Donetsk direction.
   • Assessment: This indicates ongoing conflict and displacement of civilians. It suggests the area is contested or has recently been under Russian control.

6. BOMB THREAT IN DONETSK (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Mash (14:03 UTC) reports a bomb threat in a Donetsk shopping center ("Golden Ring"). The report claims a man called from a US number, demanding a bus to leave for Ukraine in exchange for not detonating a bomb.
   • Assessment: This requires confirmation. If true, it represents a serious security threat. The claimed use of a US phone number could be a disinformation tactic.

7. CLAIMED PRESENCE OF FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN KURSK OBLAST (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (14:29) claims to see a high number of foreigners (Germans, Polish, Americans, Brits, Israelis).
   • Assesment: This needs confirmation.

8. RUSSIAN FORCES 1.5 KM FROM REGIONAL BORDER (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (14:22) reports Russian forces only have 1.5 km to reach the state border.
   • Assesment: This needs confirmation.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN USE OF FPV DRONES AND GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS (HIGH PRIORITY): The confirmed destruction of a Ukrainian M119 howitzer and the reported KAB launches demonstrate ongoing Russian air and drone activity.
• SIGNIFICANT CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN SOUTH DONETSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION): The claims of advances near Zelenovka, Vremivka, and Temirivka, if confirmed, represent a major shift in the situation on the South Donetsk front.
• REINFORCED CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR ANDRIIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY): Multiple Russian sources are now reporting advances in this area.
• CONTINUED CIVILIAN DISPLACEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The reported evacuation of civilians confirms ongoing conflict and its impact on the population.
• POTENTIAL BOMB THREAT IN DONETSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The reported bomb threat requires verification and, if confirmed, a swift security response.
• ALL PREVIOUS UPDATES REMAIN RELEVANT (REPRIORITIZED): The overall situation remains highly dynamic, with intense fighting across multiple fronts, ongoing air and missile threats, and significant shifts in the strategic landscape due to the reported US policy changes and potential Russian breakthroughs.

Updated Recommendations

1. URGENTLY VERIFY CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN SOUTH DONETSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to confirm or refute the reported Russian gains near Zelenovka, Vremivka, and Temirivka.
   • Assess the strength and composition of Russian forces in the area.
   • Determine the impact on Ukrainian defensive lines and the immediate threat to Ukrainian positions.
   • Prepare contingency plans for reinforcing Ukrainian defenses, conducting counter-attacks, or potentially evacuating civilians from threatened areas.
   • Specifically investigate the claimed appointment of General Nayev to determine its accuracy and implications.

2. CONTINUE VERIFICATION OF RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR CHASIV YAR (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain a high level of vigilance and continue to prioritize efforts to confirm or refute the reported breakthrough and advance towards Kramatorsk.

3. CONTINUE EFFORTS TO VERIFY THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE NORTH OF ANDRIIVKA.

4. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Maintain a high state of alert for air defense systems in areas facing KAB threats, particularly Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts.
   • Continue to prioritize efforts to counter Russian FPV drone attacks.

5. ASSESS IMPACT OF REPORTED HOWITZER LOSS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Confirm the loss of the M119 howitzer and assess its impact on Ukrainian artillery capabilities in the Kharkiv region.
   • Plan for replacements or adjustments to compensate for the loss.

6. INVESTIGATE REPORTED BOMB THREAT (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Work with local authorities to verify the reported bomb threat in Donetsk.
   • If confirmed, implement security measures to protect civilians and apprehend the perpetrator.
   • Investigate the claim of a call from a US phone number to assess its credibility and potential links to disinformation efforts.

7. CONTINUE ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: All other previously issued recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The most critical developments are the potential Russian breakthroughs in South Donetsk and near Chasiv Yar, requiring immediate and decisive action. The ongoing air and drone threats, along with continued fighting across multiple fronts, also demand constant attention.

The situation remains highly volatile and fluid, with significant developments unfolding rapidly. The highest priorities are verifying the claimed Russian advances and responding to the ongoing air and drone threats.