Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 07:38 UTC

Major Updates (07:08 UTC - 07:38 UTC)

1. KYIV STRIKES: CONTINUED AFTERMATH (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Tsapliyenko_Ukraine Fights (07:19 UTC) provides another video of the moment of impact. Confirms the attacks occurred in the morning.
   • Басурин о главном (07:21 UTC) claims the strikes were carried out with ballistic missiles, with at least 16 explosions reported by locals. Also claims explosions in Sumy, Mykolaiv, Lubny, Obukhov, and Zhytomyr. Requires independent verification of the number of explosions and locations.
   • Colonelcassad (07:31 UTC) posts a video of an alleged fire. Also reiterates the claim of ballistic missile strikes, with a similar list of targeted locations. Source is pro-Russian and should be treated cautiously.
   • Два майора (07:17 UTC) shows a video of a large explosion, stating it's Kyiv in the morning. Confirms morning timing and significant impact.
   • Шеф Hayabusa (07:32 UTC) shows a video of a moment of a morning attack in Kyiv, with a later photo of the damage. Confirms time, location, and that the attack hit a building.
   • Assessment: Multiple sources confirm the timing and significant impact of the strikes in Kyiv. The Russian sources' claim of 16 explosions needs independent verification. Reports of strikes outside Kyiv require confirmation. The focus remains on assessing the full extent of the damage and casualties in Kyiv.

2. CHERNIHIV OBLAST CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACK (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • RBC-Ukraine (07:14 UTC) reports a Russian attack on a critical infrastructure object in Chernihiv Oblast, likely using a drone. Two people were injured, and warehouse buildings were damaged.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (07:16 UTC) repeats the report, specifying the attack occurred in Pryluky. Provides a specific location.
   • Assessment: Confirmed attack on critical infrastructure in Chernihiv Oblast, specifically in Pryluky. Further details needed on the exact nature of the infrastructure.

3. KRYVYI RIH STRIKE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • RBC-Ukraine (07:30 UTC) reports a missile attack on Kryvyi Rih, damaging infrastructure, a hotel, an administrative building, an educational institution, a gas station, and numerous residential buildings and cars. No reported casualties.
   • Сили оборони Півдня України (07:22 UTC) Confirms that the attack occurred in the city center, with no reported casualties.
   • Assessment: Confirmed missile attack causing widespread damage in Kryvyi Rih. Crucially, no reported casualties. The attack highlights the continued threat to civilian infrastructure.

4. "RAMSTEIN" MEETING AGENDA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • RBC-Ukraine (07:31 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСУ (07:32 UTC) outline the agenda for the 26th Ramstein meeting, focusing on:
     • Stable and timely military aid for 2025.
     • Accelerated delivery of air defense systems, aviation, and ammunition.
     • Investment in Ukrainian defense industry and joint projects with European partners.
     • Expansion of Ukrainian defense production and increased arms supplies.
   • Assessment: Confirms the focus of the meeting on securing long-term military and financial support for Ukraine.

5. ZAPORIZHZHIA SITUATION (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Сили оборони Півдня України (07:22 UTC) reports a stable but tense situation, with no signs of Russian offensive groupings forming. Claims three Russian assaults along the Zaporizhzhia front line in the last 24 hours. Reports 290 enemy shellings of Ukrainian positions and nearby areas, including widespread use of drones and guided bombs. Requires verification of the claimed number of shellings and drone attacks.
   • Рыбарь (07:35 UTC) reports increasing Ukrainian FPV drone activity.
   • Assessment: The situation in Zaporizhzhia remains active, with continued shelling and drone activity. The claims of increased drone usage, particularly FPV drones, need to be closely monitored.

6. CYBERATTACK ON RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (CLAIMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • RBC-Ukraine (07:17 UTC) claims that Ukrainian cyber specialists (GUR and Armed Forces) attacked Gazstroyprom, a major contractor for Gazprom, and 22 other companies providing services to the Russian oil and gas industry. Claims potential damages in the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars. Requires independent verification.
   • Assessment: A significant claim of a successful cyberattack targeting the core of the Russian energy sector. Verification is essential. If confirmed, this could have major implications for Russian energy production and economic stability.

7. CLAIMED RUSSIAN LOSSES NEAR SVERDLYKOVE, KURSK OBLAST (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (07:24 UTC) claims that over 500 Ukrainian troops were trapped and surrounded. Requires independent confirmation.

Updated Situation Summary

• MULTIPLE STRIKES ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed missile and drone attacks targeting Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Mykolaiv Oblast, and Chernihiv Oblast. Casualties confirmed in Kyiv and Chernihiv Oblast, but none reported in Kryvyi Rih. Widespread damage to civilian and critical infrastructure.
• CYBERATTACK ON RUSSIAN ENERGY SECTOR (HIGH PRIORITY): Unverified Ukrainian claim of a major cyberattack targeting Gazstroyprom and other energy companies. Verification is paramount.
• "RAMSTEIN" MEETING FOCUSES ON LONG-TERM SUPPORT (HIGH PRIORITY): The meeting emphasizes securing sustained military aid and investment in Ukrainian defense production.
• ZAPORIZHZHIA FRONT REMAINS ACTIVE (HIGH PRIORITY): Continued shelling, drone activity, and reported Russian assaults. Close monitoring of claimed increased FPV drone usage is crucial.
• KURSK REGION FIGHTING (UNCLEAR): Conflicting claims about the situation.
• ALL PREVIOUS UPDATES REMAIN RELEVANT: The core situation is unchanged.

Updated Recommendations

1. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND CASUALTY CONFIRMATION (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts to clarify casualties and assess the full extent of damage in all affected areas. Focus on verifying the Russian claims of 16 explosions in Kyiv.
   • Determine the nature of the infrastructure damaged in Mykolaiv and Chernihiv.
   • Address immediate needs of affected populations.

2. VERIFY CYBERATTACK CLAIM (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to verify the claimed cyberattack on Gazstroyprom and other energy companies. Cross-reference with independent sources and cyber security experts.
   • Assess the potential impact on Russian energy production and economic stability.

3. MONITOR ZAPORIZHZHIA FRONT (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence on any increased FPV drone activity.
   • Assess the validity of claims about Russian assaults.

4. CLARIFY KURSK REGION SITUATION (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Attempt to independently verify the conflicting claims about fighting near Sverdlykove.
   • Use all available intelligence sources.

5. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY)

   • Use all available intelligence assets to verify Russian claims about targets hit. Cross-reference with Ukrainian sources and independent imagery.
   • Assess the accuracy of Russian claims about drone interceptions.

6. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain a high state of alert across all regions, given the continued and widespread threat of missile and drone attacks.

7. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT: Priorities are adjusted as indicated, with the immediate focus on damage assessment, casualty clarification, and verifying the claimed cyberattack. The situation remains highly dynamic, with active conflict and significant threats across multiple regions.