Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 01:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (01:08 UTC - 01:38 UTC, February 12)

Drone Threat Reduction (Confirmed)

• Ukrainian Air Force (01:15 UTC): Announced a reduction in the drone threat across all regions except Sumy Oblast.
• RBC-Ukraine (01:16 UTC): Confirmed the reduced drone threat, specifically mentioning it as applying to attack drones.
• RBC-Ukraine (01:17 UTC): Provided an updated map of air raid alerts, showing red (alert) status in: Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, partially in Zaporizhzhia (Nikopol), Kherson, and Crimea.

Assessment: This confirms a significant de-escalation of the widespread drone attack reported earlier. However, the continued threat in Sumy Oblast requires ongoing monitoring. The air raid alert map confirms that the primary threat areas remain concentrated along the eastern and southern fronts, consistent with ongoing conflict zones. The alert in Sumy, near the northern border, suggests continued risk of cross-border attacks or missile strikes.

Other Developments (Limited Direct Military Impact)

• Colonelcassad (01:21 UTC): Posted a series of photographs related to the ongoing conflict. These include:

  • A damaged Humvee (with a "Medical" marking), indicating combat or IED engagement and loss of medical support capabilities.
  • A soldier in camouflage with a blurred face in the back of a military vehicle.
  • Parts of a Ukrainian UAV (with a mark indicating it was supported by the Sergiy Pritula Foundation) being held by a soldier.
  • A soldier in a heavily damaged building.
  • A heavily modified tank (with camouflage netting, a cage structure, and logs for additional protection).
  • An armored recovery vehicle (ARV) marked "БАЙКАЛ" (Baikal), indicating logistical support.
  • Another camouflaged military vehicle with a cross, indicating medical purposes, and cage netting.
  • A destroyed military vehicle with a soldier standing nearby.
  • A soldier with a Russian flag patch and "Z" symbol in a defensive position.
  • Heavy artillery in a muddy environment.
  • Assessment: The photographs confirm several ongoing trends:
    • Continued fighting: evidenced by destroyed vehicles and soldiers in combat positions.
    • Drone warfare: the presence of UAV parts confirms their continued use.
    • Logistical efforts: the presence of an ARV demonstrates ongoing maintenance and recovery operations.
    • Adaptations to battlefield threats: the modified tank with cage armor and the presence of cage armor on other vehicles suggest a response to drone or anti-tank threats.
    • Medical Vulnerability: The damaged medical Humvee highlights the vulnerability of medical support.
    • Terrain Challenges: The mud shown in multiple images indicate the difficult terrain conditions impacting operations.

• TASS (01:26 UTC): Japan asked the United States to exempt its companies from steel and aluminum tariffs.

  • Assessment: No immediate impact on the military situation in Ukraine.

Updated Situation Summary

• Decreased Drone Threat: The previously widespread drone attack has significantly de-escalated, although a threat remains in Sumy Oblast.
• Continued Fighting Confirmed: Photographic evidence from Colonelcassad confirms continued fighting, logistical operations, and adaptation to evolving threats.
• Ongoing Eastern/Southern Focus: Air raid alerts remain concentrated in the east and south, reflecting the primary conflict zones.

Updated Recommendations

1. Maintain Monitoring of Sumy Oblast (High Priority): Focus air defense and surveillance assets on Sumy Oblast due to the continued drone threat.
2. Analyze Colonelcassad Photographs (Medium Priority): While originating from a pro-Russian source, the photographs provide valuable visual confirmation of battlefield conditions and trends. Analyze the images for further insights into:
   • Specific locations of fighting.
   • Types of equipment used by both sides.
   • Effectiveness of adaptations (e.g., cage armor).
   • Logistical vulnerabilities.
3. Continue Monitoring for Ballistic Missile Threats (Medium Priority): While the immediate threat has passed, the potential for future launches remains.
4. All Previous Recommendations from 01:08 UTC Remain in Effect (Modified Priorities): Recommendations related to assessing damage in Odesa and monitoring the Belarus border remain valid, but with a reduced priority given the de-escalation of the drone threat. The recommendations from previous reports (02-09) also apply.