Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 21:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (21:08 UTC - 21:38 UTC, February 11)

Confirmed Actions and Status Updates

• KYIV AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE):

  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:09 UTC) reported possible air defense activity in Kyiv Oblast in response to an enemy UAV.
  • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the ongoing drone threat extends to the KYIV REGION. Air defense systems are ACTIVE, indicating an IMMEDIATE THREAT.

• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT FROM KURSK OBLAST (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:11 UTC) issued a warning about the threat of ballistic missile use from Kursk Oblast.
  • РБК-Україна (21:12 UTC) relayed the same warning.
  • Assessment: This represents a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION in the threat level. Ballistic missiles are FASTER AND MORE DIFFICULT TO INTERCEPT than drones, posing a GREATER DANGER. The origin from KURSK OBLAST suggests a potential WIDENING OF THE CONFLICT ZONE.

• MYKOLAIV EXPLOSION (REPORTED): РБК-Україна (21:15 UTC) reported an explosion in Mykolaiv.

  • Assessment: This is an unconfirmed report and requires corroboration with official sources. It's HIGHLY LIKELY connected to the ongoing drone attacks, given the context of reports from Nikolaevskiy Vanyok, but this needs to be confirmed.

• CONTINUED DRONE MOVEMENTS (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:19 UTC) reported a drone from the northern part of Mykolaiv Oblast heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
    • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (21:19 UTC) reported two drones from Velyka Korenykha approaching Mykolaiv, warning of potential loud noises.
    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:25) reported drones in the east of Kyiv Oblast, heading West.
  • Assessment: The drone attack CONTINUES UNABATED, with MULTIPLE ACTIVE THREATS. The movement towards KIROVOHRAD OBLAST indicates a FURTHER SPREAD of the affected area. The approach to MYKOLAIV is CONSISTENT with the reported explosion. Drone activity near KYIV is also confirmed.

Claims and Potential Developments (Verification Needed)

• RUSSIAN ASSAULT NEAR POKROVSK (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGHLY BIASED):

  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (21:10 UTC) posted a video claiming to show two Russian assault troops near Pokrovsk, one limping on crutches and the other crawling.
  • Assessment: This report is presented with EXTREME BIAS ("Shock!"). While the video DOES SHOW two individuals, one with a crutch and one crawling, the claim that they are Russian assault troops is UNVERIFIED. The video DOES PROVIDE evidence of DRONE SURVEILLANCE in the area. The poor physical condition of the individuals, IF they are indeed Russian soldiers, could indicate LOW MORALE, POOR TRAINING, OR DESPERATION.

• DESTROYED RUSSIAN T-72B (REPORTED): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (21:14 UTC) reported the destruction of a Russian T-72B equipped with an RBU-6000 rocket launcher.

• Assessment: This is a claim from a Ukrainian Source, which needs confirmation.

Ongoing Situations

• MASSIVE, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME, CRITICAL PRIORITY, EXPANDING): Remains the MOST IMMEDIATE threat, with CONFIRMED ACTIVITY now including the KYIV REGION and KIROVOHRAD OBLAST. The REPORTED EXPLOSION in Mykolaiv is LIKELY connected.
• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT FROM KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, NEW THREAT): This NEW THREAT significantly elevates the risk level and requires IMMEDIATE ATTENTION.
• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVE (HIGH PRIORITY, NEEDS VERIFICATION): Still requires further investigation.
• INTENSE FIGHTING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS, ESPECIALLY POKROVSK AND KURSK (EXTREME PRIORITY): Ongoing, with reports of thermobaric weapon use in Kursk.
• CONFIRMED DRONE THREAT TO KHARKIV, ZAPORIZHZHIA, SUMY, AND CHERNIHIV OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed and ongoing.
• CONTINUED GUIDED AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS IN DONETSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY): Persistent threat.
• ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED THREATS AND CONCERNS REMAIN VALID.
• UKRAINIAN RECRUITMENT CAMPAIGN: Confirmed and active.
• POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS: Unchanged.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN INTENSE AIR DEFENSE FOCUS, PRIORITIZE TRACKING AND INTERCEPTION, EXPAND TO KYIV AND KIROVOHRAD (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain high alert across all affected regions, INCLUDING KYIV AND KIROVOHRAD OBLASTS.
   • Utilize detailed drone tracking information from all available sources to OPTIMIZE AIR DEFENSE DEPLOYMENTS.
   • Continue to employ electronic warfare systems and counter-drone technologies.
   • ALERT KYIV AND KIROVOHRAD

2. ADDRESS BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT FROM KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Issue warnings to potentially affected areas in Ukraine.
   • Activate all available air defense systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles.
   • Increase surveillance of the Kursk Oblast region to detect any further missile launch preparations.

3. VERIFY MYKOLAIV EXPLOSION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Contact official sources in Mykolaiv to confirm the reported explosion and determine its cause.
   • Assess any damage or casualties.

4. INVESTIGATE REPORT OF RUSSIAN ASSAULT TROOPS NEAR POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Analyze the video from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS with CAUTION, acknowledging the bias.
   • Attempt to geolocate the video to confirm its proximity to Pokrovsk.
   • Gather additional intelligence on Russian troop movements and activities in the area.

5. GATHER INTELLIGENCE ON RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK REGION, ASSESS THERMOBARIC WEAPON USE (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain previous actions.
   • Specifically investigate the reported use of "Solntsepyok" thermobaric weapons. Assess the potential impact on Ukrainian forces and civilian populations.

6. GATHER INTELLIGENCE ON US-RUSSIA BACK-CHANNEL NEGOTIATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain all previous recommendations.

7. CONFIRM OR REFUTE CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN SURRENDERS IN DACHNE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Maintain previous actions.

8. ASSESS IMPACT OF KRYVYI RIH STRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Maintain all previous recommendations.

9. MONITOR AND SUPPORT UKRAINIAN RECRUITMENT CAMPAIGN (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Maintain previous recommendations.
   • Monitor the effectiveness of the "Contract 18-24" program and adjust strategies as needed.

10. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: All other previous recommendations remain in effect.

11. ANALYZE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Maintain previous recommendations.

12. ADDRESS POLISH AIRSPACE VIOLATION (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Gather detailed information on the incident from Polish authorities and NATO allies.
    • Assess the Russian explanation (navigation system malfunction) and look for any evidence of deliberate intent.
    • Review air defense protocols and consider adjustments to enhance early warning and response capabilities along the border.

The WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE DRONE ATTACK remains the MOST IMMEDIATE AND CRITICAL concern, now EXPANDING to include the KYIV REGION and KIROVOHRAD OBLAST. The NEW THREAT of BALLISTIC MISSILES FROM KURSK OBLAST significantly elevates the risk level. The REPORTED EXPLOSION in Mykolaiv needs IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION. All other ongoing situations and recommendations remain valid.