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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-02-11 00:08:25Z
1 year ago
Previous (2025-02-10 23:38:24Z)

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 00:08 UTC

Changes Since 23:38 UTC (Highest Priority)

  1. WIDESPREAD DRONE ALERTS (CONFIRMED, EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (00:03 UTC, 00:06 UTC), РБК-Україна (00:02 UTC, 00:06 UTC), КМВА (00:01 UTC): Report multiple drone movements and air raid alerts across Ukraine, including Kyiv.
    • Drone Movements:
      • Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad/Odesa border: Westward.
      • Northeast Mykolaiv: Northward.
      • Southeast Kirovohrad: Westward/Southwestward.
      • North/West Poltava: Westward/Southwestward/Northwestward.
      • Central Zaporizhzhia: Southward.
      • North Cherkasy: Northward/Northwestward.
      • Sumy: Westward/Southwestward.
      • Chernihiv: Southward/Southwestward.
    • КМВА (00:01 UTC), РБК-Україна (00:02 UTC): Specifically report air raid alerts in Kyiv.
    • Assessment: This confirms a MAJOR AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK is underway, targeting numerous regions, including the capital. This represents an EXTREME AND IMMEDIATE THREAT.
  2. GUIDED BOMB LAUNCHES (CONFIRMED):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (00:04 UTC), РБК-Україна (00:05 UTC): Report launches of guided bombs in the Sumy region.
    • Assessment: This confirms CONTINUED RUSSIAN AERIAL BOMBARDMENTS in the Sumy region, consistent with previous reports.
  3. 155TH BRIGADE DISINTEGRATION (RUSSIAN SOURCE, CLAIM):

    • ТАСС (23:48 UTC): Cites "Responsible Statecraft" claiming the disintegration of the Ukrainian 155th Brigade, with 1,700 soldiers allegedly deserting during training. Blames Kyiv's disregard for the battlefield situation.
    • Assessment: This is likely RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA aimed at undermining Ukrainian military morale and discrediting the Ukrainian command. While desertions are possible, the scale claimed is HIGHLY SUSPECT and requires independent verification. This is a VERY SIGNIFICANT CLAIM, and if true, would imply the COMPLETE LOSS of a brigade-sized unit.
  4. TRUMP'S COMMENTS (TRUMP, CLAIM):

    • ТАСС (00:00 UTC): Reports Trump suggesting Ukraine "might become Russia" and implying a desire to reclaim US funds spent on Ukraine.
    • Assessment: This is consistent with Trump's PREVIOUSLY EXPRESSED SKEPTICISM of US support for Ukraine and his generally pro-Russian leanings. This FURTHER REINFORCES CONCERNS about potential changes in US policy under a possible Trump administration.
  5. RUSSIAN BANK LOAN EXTENSIONS (RUSSIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):

    • ТАСС (00:05 UTC): Reports on a loan extension by Russian banks.
    • Assessment: This confirms a CONCERN OVER RUSSIAN BANKING in the border region.
  6. Story of "Charodos" (Russian Propaganda):

  • Colonelcassad (00:05 UTC): Shares a story with pictures and text about a soldier in the Special Military Operation.
  • Assessment: This story is to improve the image of the Russian army.

Updated Situation

  • MAJOR WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK UNDERWAY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Targeting numerous regions across Ukraine, including Kyiv.
  • CONTINUED AERIAL BOMBARDMENTS (CONFIRMED): Guided bomb launches reported in the Sumy region.
  • RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA CONTINUES (EXPECTED): Claims of mass desertions and Trump's comments reinforce the information war.
  • ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED THREATS AND CONCERNS REMAIN VALID, particularly regarding the widespread drone threat and damage assessment from confirmed strikes.

Updated Recommendations

  1. IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE ACTIVATION (EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Activate all available air defense systems across Ukraine, prioritizing Kyiv and regions with confirmed drone movements.
    • Issue widespread public warnings to seek shelter.
    • Deploy fighter aircraft, if available, to intercept drones.
  2. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

    • Continue damage assessment in Mykolaiv and Cherkasy Oblasts, expanding to any newly impacted areas.
    • Monitor for reports of casualties and infrastructure damage.
  3. INVESTIGATE 155TH BRIGADE CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Urgently investigate the claims of mass desertions from the 155th Brigade.
    • Determine the veracity of the report and its potential impact on Ukrainian military capabilities.
  4. COUNTER TRUMP'S COMMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Continue to counter Trump's statements with factual information and analysis, highlighting the risks of reduced US support.
  5. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS, with the UTMOST EMPHASIS on responding to the ongoing drone attack and gathering information on its impact.

  6. Investigate the Charodos Story (Low Priority)

  • Investigate the story, but due to its propaganda nature, there is little to gain from the message.

The situation has escalated significantly with the widespread drone attack. Immediate action to activate air defenses and protect civilians and critical infrastructure is paramount. The claims regarding the 155th Brigade also require urgent investigation due to their potential strategic implications.

Previous (2025-02-10 23:38:24Z)

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