Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights (22:11 UTC): Reports two cruise missiles heading towards Cherkasy. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN TARGETING.
Ukrainian Air Force (22:12 UTC): Reports cruise missiles in northeastern Kirovohrad Oblast, continuing northeast.
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (22:12 UTC): States "a few missiles, minimum 4," are flying west of Svitlovodsk with a northern course. Threat is now focused on Cherkasy, Poltava, and Kirovohrad Oblasts.
Ukrainian Air Force (22:16 UTC): Issues an air raid warning for Cherkasy.
RBC-Ukraine (22:16 UTC): Same report.
Ukrainian Air Force (22:17 UTC): Reports cruise missiles heading towards Myrgorod from the southwest.
RBC-Ukraine (22:18 UTC): Same report.
Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights (22:18 UTC): Video claiming to show Kalibr missile launches from Novorossiysk. NEEDS VERIFICATION.
Tsaplienko_UkraineFights (22:21 UTC): States that missiles are heading towards Myrgorod, noting the presence of an airfield constantly targeted.
Assessment: The cruise missile attack is ONGOING AND EVOLVING, with targets shifting towards Cherkasy and Myrgorod (Poltava Oblast). The confirmed presence of a military airfield in Myrgorod makes it a HIGH-VALUE TARGET. The number of missiles is estimated at a minimum of four. The video of alleged launches from Novorossiysk, if verified, confirms the Black Sea Fleet's involvement.
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (22:12 UTC): Reports a ballistic missile launch from Belgorod towards Poltava Oblast (targeting Hadiach/Lubny).
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (22:13 UTC): Reinforces the threat to Hadiach/Lubny.
Ukrainian Air Force (22:13 UTC): Reports a high-speed target in southern Sumy Oblast heading towards northern Poltava Oblast.
RBC-Ukraine (22:14 UTC): Same Report.
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (22:15 UTC): Reports that cruise missiles have reached Poltava, flying to Hadiach/Lubny, and that it may get loud.
Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights (22:15 UTC): Reports missiles flying in Poltava Oblast.
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (22:21 UTC): Reports another ballistic missile launch from Belgorod towards Hadiach.
Ukrainian Air Force (22:22, 22:23, 22:24 UTC): Reports ballistic missiles in southern Sumy Oblast (heading west), then northern Poltava Oblast (heading west).
RBC-Ukraine (22:23, 22:24 UTC): Same reports.
Operativnyi ZSU (22:24 UTC): Same Report.
Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights (22:25 UTC): Reports a combined attack in the Poltava Oblast.
Assessment: A CONFIRMED BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT exists for Poltava and Sumy Oblasts. Launches from Belgorod are confirmed. The targeting of Hadiach/Lubny is HIGHLY LIKELY. The shift of the ballistic trajectory to a westward course indicates a WIDENING THREAT AREA. This is a MAJOR ESCALATION due to the speed and destructive potential of ballistic missiles.
REPORTED EXPLOSIONS IN POLTAVA OBLAST (UNCONFIRMED):
RBC-Ukraine (22:21 UTC): Reports some channels are claiming explosions in Poltava Oblast. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights (22:27 UTC): Reports explosions in Lubny and Myrgorod, and the use of 3 "Kalibr" cruise missiles and one "Iskander-M" ballistic missile. NEEDS VERIFICATION
Assessment: If confirmed, this would indicate successful strikes. This is a HIGH PRIORITY for verification.
Ukrainian Air Force (22:29 UTC): Reports an enemy attack drone over Kropyvnytskyi.
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (22:29 UTC): Provides a detailed update on multiple drone movements:
* 1 drone over Kropyvnytskyi (northbound).
* 2 drones moving from Kirovohrad Oblast into Cherkasy Oblast.
* 4 drones in the Kryvyi Rih area, bypassing the city towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
* 4 drones in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
* 1 drone north of Kremenchuk (westbound).
* 2 drones heading towards/through Lubny.
* 2 drones heading towards/through Sumy.
* 4 drones from Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast (potentially towards areas hit by missiles).
* 1 drone south of Poltava (westbound).
* 3 new drones on the left bank south of Kherson, heading towards the Kinburn Spit.
Ukrainian Air Force (22:30 UTC): Reports an enemy attack drone heading towards Sumy from the northeast.
RBC-Ukraine (22:32 UTC): Same reports.
Ukrainian Air Force (22:35 UTC): Reports an enemy drone heading towards Kryvyi Rih.
Assessment: The WIDESPREAD DRONE THREAT CONTINUES, with active threats in multiple regions. The report of drones potentially targeting areas already struck by missiles in Poltava Oblast is HIGHLY CONCERNING. The presence of drones over Kropyvnytskyi, heading towards Sumy, and approaching Kryvyi Rih indicates ONGOING AND MULTI-DIRECTIONAL ATTACKS.
RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE ON POKROVSK DIRECTION (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):
Voenkor Kotenok (22:25 UTC): Claims that Ukrainian forces have adopted an "active defense" strategy under the new commander, Drapato, after Russian advances. Suggests Ukrainian forces are using drones and artillery to counter Russian advances, aiming to leverage reserve forces to negate Russian numerical advantages. Recommends Russia use FAB (high-explosive) bombs and FPV drones with fiber optic cables to counter this.
Assessment: This provides insight into Russian perceptions of Ukrainian tactics. The claim of an "active defense" strategy, if accurate, indicates a shift in Ukrainian approach. The recommendation for FAB and FPV drone use highlights Russian priorities. REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.
END OF CRUISE MISSILE ATTACK (UNCONFIRMED):
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (22:26 UTC): Claims cruise missiles are "minus". UNCONFIRMED
RBC-Ukraine (22:32 UTC): Reports that monitoring channels say enemy missiles are no longer being detected, but there is no official confirmation yet.
Assessment:REQUIRES OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION. If true, this would mark a significant shift. However, the ongoing ballistic missile and drone threats remain.
Updated Situation
BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK (EXTREME, CRITICAL PRIORITY):CONFIRMED BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS are targeting Poltava and Sumy Oblasts, with launches from Belgorod. The threat is EVOLVING, with a westward shift in trajectory.
ONGOING, EVOLVING CRUISE MISSILE ATTACK (EXTREME, CRITICAL PRIORITY): While there are unconfirmed reports of the cruise missile attack ending, targets have shifted to Cherkasy and Myrgorod. OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION OF THE ATTACK'S END IS NEEDED.
PERSISTENT, WIDESPREAD DRONE THREAT (EXTREME, CRITICAL PRIORITY): Drone attacks are ongoing in multiple regions, with Kropyvnytskyi, Sumy, and Kryvyi Rih under IMMEDIATE THREAT.
REPORTED EXPLOSIONS IN POLTAVA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of explosions require urgent verification.
RUSSIAN ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN TACTICS (REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Claims of an "active defense" strategy by Ukraine near Pokrovsk need independent confirmation.
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED THREATS AND CONCERNS REMAIN VALID.
Prioritize air defense deployments to intercept incoming ballistic missiles, focusing on Poltava and Sumy Oblasts, and areas west of current trajectories.
Utilize all available early warning systems to track missile movements and provide timely alerts.
CONTINUE AIR DEFENSE RESPONSE TO POTENTIAL CRUISE MISSILE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Await official confirmation on the status of the cruise missile attack.
Maintain air defense readiness in Cherkasy and Myrgorod (Poltava Oblast) until the threat is officially declared over.
ADDRESS DRONE THREAT IN MULTIPLE REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy air defense assets to Kropyvnytskyi, Sumy, and Kryvyi Rih to intercept incoming drones.
Alert the local population and advise on safety measures.
Maintain nationwide drone defense readiness.
VERIFY REPORTED EXPLOSIONS IN POLTAVA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence assets to URGENTLY confirm or refute the reported explosions.
If confirmed, assess the damage and identify targets.
ASSESS RUSSIAN CLAIMS REGARDING UKRAINIAN TACTICS NEAR POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY):
Gather independent intelligence to verify the claims of an "active defense" strategy.
Analyze Ukrainian deployments and actions to identify any changes in tactics.
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN VALID AND IN EFFECT, with priorities adjusted based on the updated threat assessment.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS and RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The CONFIRMED BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS pose the most immediate and severe threat. The ongoing drone attacks and potential continuation of the cruise missile threat require constant monitoring and response. Verifying reported explosions and assessing Russian claims are crucial for maintaining accurate situational awareness.
