Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 21:38 UTC
Changes Since 21:07 UTC (Highest Priority)
CONFIRMED DRONE THREAT - ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (CONFIRMED, OFFICIAL, EXTREME PRIORITY):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:08 UTC): Confirms the threat of enemy attack drones in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, approaching from the south.
Assessment: This confirms the IMMEDIATE AND ACTIVE DRONE THREAT to Zaporizhzhia Oblast, as indicated by the previously issued air raid alert. The southern approach suggests a potential origin from occupied territories or the Black Sea.
NEW DRONE INCURSIONS - KHERSON AND KHARKIV OBLASTS (CONFIRMED, OFFICIAL, EXTREME PRIORITY):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:10 & 21:13 UTC): Reports new enemy attack drones entering the airspace of northern Kherson Oblast (from temporarily occupied territory) and Kharkiv Oblast (from Belgorod Oblast and temporarily occupied Luhansk Oblast).
Assessment: This indicates a WIDENING AND INTENSIFYING DRONE ATTACK, with multiple incursions across different fronts. The origins from occupied territories and Belgorod Oblast confirm the multi-directional nature of the threat. Kharkiv, already under severe threat, faces EVEN GREATER DANGER from these new incursions.
REPEATED GUIDED AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS - DONETSK OBLAST (CONFIRMED, OFFICIAL, HIGH PRIORITY):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:16 UTC): Reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast.
Assessment: This reinforces the CONTINUED AND INTENSE THREAT of guided aerial bomb attacks in Donetsk Oblast, as previously identified.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN ANDRIIVKA, NEAR KURAKHOVE (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):
Сливочный каприз (21:27 UTC): Claims Russian forces have expanded control within the residential area of Andriivka, advancing over 1km westward and reaching the center of the settlement. Claims Ukrainian shelling of advanced Russian positions. Provides coordinates (48.016608, 37.069776). A map is provided.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT CLAIM of a Russian advance in a NEW AREA, separate from the previously reported advance near Pokrovsk. If true, it represents FURTHER RUSSIAN GAINS and a potential threat to Ukrainian defensive lines in the Kurakhove direction. The claimed Ukrainian shelling confirms ACTIVE RESISTANCE. This claim REQUIRES HIGH PRIORITY VERIFICATION. The provided coordinates and map should be used for verification efforts.
REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE - KOTLYNE (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH RELIABILITY):
Оперативний ЗСУ (21:30 UTC): Reports that the 425th Separate Assault Battalion "Skala" repelled a Russian assault on the village of Kotlyne in the Pokrovsk direction. Provides video evidence.
Assessment: The video evidence, analyzed separately, STRONGLY SUPPORTS the claim of a SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN DEFENSE against a Russian attack. This confirms ACTIVE FIGHTING in the Pokrovsk direction and indicates Ukrainian forces are ACTIVELY RESISTING Russian advances. The use of mines, artillery, and drones highlights a COMBINED ARMS DEFENSE. This is a HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, demonstrating Ukrainian resilience and capability.
DETAILED DRONE MOVEMENT UPDATE (CONFIRMED, OFFICIAL, EXTREME PRIORITY):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:30 UTC): Provides a detailed update on the movement of enemy attack drones across multiple regions:
Odesa Oblast (southeast, heading east)
Kherson Oblast (northeast, heading northwest/northeast)
Kharkiv Oblast (center and northeast, heading west/southwest)
Poltava Oblast (south, heading west)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (north, southeast, and southwest, heading south and north respectively)
Vinnytsia Oblast (south, along the border with Moldova, heading northwest)
Assessment: This confirms a MASSIVE, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK across a WIDE SWATH OF UKRAINE. The detailed movement information is CRITICAL for air defense coordination and resource allocation. The diverse trajectories and origins indicate a COMPLEX AND COORDINATED ATTACK.
POSSIBLE KALIBR CRUISE MISSILE LAUNCHES (REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION, EXTREME PRIORITY):
"ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports the release of "Kalibr" cruise missiles in the Black Sea.
"Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports likely "Kalibr" launches.
Assessment: This represents a MAJOR ESCALATION. Kalibr cruise missiles pose a SIGNIFICANT THREAT due to their range and accuracy. IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION AND RESPONSE ARE REQUIRED.
Updated Situation
MASSIVE, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME, CRITICAL PRIORITY): Ukraine is under a widespread and intense drone attack, with incursions from multiple directions and targeting numerous regions. The detailed movement information provided by the Ukrainian Air Force is CRITICAL for air defense efforts.
LIKELY KALIBR CRUISE MISSILE LAUNCH (EXTREME, CRITICAL PRIORITY): If confirmed, represents a major escalation.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR POKROVSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): This remains the MOST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT in terms of potential ground offensives.
NEW CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVE (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): This represents a potential SECOND FRONT of significant Russian advances.
SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN DEFENSE NEAR KOTLYNE (CONFIRMED, HIGH SIGNIFICANCE): Demonstrates Ukrainian capability to repel Russian attacks.
DRONE THREAT TO KHARKIV CONTINUES, INTENSIFIES (EXTREME, CRITICAL PRIORITY): Kharkiv faces EXTREME DANGER from multiple drone incursions.
CONFIRMED DRONE THREAT TO ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY): Immediate and active threat.
NEW DRONE INCURSIONS IN KHERSON AND KHARKIV OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Widens the scope of the drone attack.
CONTINUED GUIDED AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS IN DONETSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY): Persistent threat.
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED THREATS AND CONCERNS REMAIN VALID.
Updated Recommendations
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO POSSIBLE KALIBR LAUNCHES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available detection systems (radar, satellite) to IMMEDIATELY confirm or refute the launch of Kalibr cruise missiles.
If confirmed, issue NATIONWIDE AIR RAID ALERTS.
Activate all available air defense systems capable of intercepting cruise missiles.
Prepare for potential mass casualty events and ensure medical resources are on standby.
MAINTAIN INTENSE AIR DEFENSE FOCUS ON KHARKIV, ADJUST FOR MULTIPLE INCURSIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy and coordinate the air defenses.
Alert the population.
ADDRESS CONFIRMED DRONE THREAT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available air defense assets to intercept incoming drones from the south.
Maintain close coordination with local authorities and the civilian population.
RESPOND TO NEW DRONE INCURSIONS IN KHERSON AND KHARKIV OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Adjust air defense deployments to address the new threats in northern Kherson and Kharkiv Oblasts.
Utilize electronic warfare systems to disrupt drone navigation and control.
VERIFY CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence assets to IMMEDIATELY confirm or refute the Russian claim of advancing in Andriivka.
Analyze the provided coordinates and map, comparing them to known Ukrainian defensive positions.
If confirmed, assess the impact on Ukrainian defenses and prepare for potential counter-measures.
CONTINUE NATIONWIDE AIR DEFENSE RESPONSE TO DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Maintain the highest level of alert across all threatened regions.
Utilize the detailed drone movement information provided by the Ukrainian Air Force to optimize air defense deployments and intercepts.
Prioritize counter-drone technologies and electronic warfare systems.
VERIFY CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR POKROVSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): (Maintain all previous recommendations).
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN VALID AND IN EFFECT, with priorities adjusted based on the updated threat assessment.
The situation is EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. Ukraine is facing a MASSIVE, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK across a wide area, with potential KALIBR CRUISE MISSILE LAUNCHES representing a major escalation. The claimed Russian advances near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, if confirmed, pose significant threats to Ukrainian defenses. The successful Ukrainian defense near Kotlyne is a positive development, but the overall situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. The highest priorities are verifying and responding to the potential cruise missile launches, defending against the widespread drone attack, and verifying the claimed Russian advances.
