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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-02-10 20:38:33Z
1 year ago
Previous (2025-02-10 20:10:13Z)

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 20:38 UTC

Changes Since 20:08 UTC (Highest Priority)

  1. DRONE THREAT INTENSIFIES, MULTIPLE LOCATIONS (CONFIRMED, EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: Reports:
      • Two drones flying towards Uman (Kyiv Oblast).
      • Two drones passed Biliaivka, heading north.
      • One drone passed Ochakiv, heading northwest.
      • Five drones west of Kharkiv, heading south.
      • Two drones at the intersection of Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, heading southwest.
      • Four drones are approaching Kharkiv.
    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Provides updates on drone movements:
      • Drones in southern Sumy Oblast, heading south; in central Sumy Oblast, heading west.
      • Drones in southwest Mykolaiv Oblast, heading northwest.
      • Drones in eastern Odesa Oblast, heading northwest.
      • Drones in western Cherkasy Oblast, heading northwest.
      • Drones in the east and southeast of Kharkiv, heading south-west.
      • Drones in Vinnytsia Oblast, heading east.
      • Drones in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading north-east.
      • Drones towards Kharkiv from the south west.
    • Assessment: The drone threat remains the ABSOLUTE TOP PRIORITY and is INTENSIFYING. The reports confirm a MASSIVE, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK in progress, targeting numerous regions across Ukraine. The reports from both sources indicate a HIGHLY COORDINATED attack, with drones approaching from multiple directions and converging on key areas. The threat to KHARKIV is now IMMINENT and CRITICAL, with four drones approaching the city.
  2. RUSSIAN STRIKES ON UKRAINIAN FORCES (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

    • Colonelcassad: Claims Russian strikes on Ukrainian forces near Pishchane (Kharkiv Oblast), and on two vehicles (a minivan and a "bukhanka") near Kupyansk. Claims a "Vanya Ivanov" group carried out the Pishchane strike, and a "Tilt" group carried out the Kupyansk strikes. A third strike is claimed against Ukrainian vehicles in Kharkiv Oblast, attributed to the "Tilt" group.
    • Assessment: These claims REQUIRE URGENT VERIFICATION. The claims, if true, indicate ACTIVE RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ACTIONS in Kharkiv Oblast, specifically targeting Ukrainian troops and vehicles.
  3. REPEATED GUIDED AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS (CONFIRMED, OFFICIAL, HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts.
    • Assessment: This confirms the CONTINUED AND REPEATED USE of guided bombs, posing a HIGH RISK to both military and civilian targets in these regions.
  4. GENERAL STAFF REPORT (CONFIRMED, OFFICIAL, HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ: Reports 127 combat clashes in the last 24 hours.
    • Key claims (translated and summarized):
      • Kharkiv Direction: 4 Russian attempts to storm Ukrainian positions near Vovchansk.
      • Kupyansk Direction: 8 Russian attacks stopped; 1 ongoing.
      • Lyman Direction: 12 Russian attacks.
      • Siversk Direction: 5 Russian attacks repelled; 2 ongoing.
      • Kramatorsk Direction: 5 Russian attacks repelled; 3 ongoing.
      • Toretsk Direction: 11 Russian attacks.
      • Pokrovsk Direction: 40 Russian attacks stopped; 7 ongoing. Claims 285 Russian casualties (130 KIA), 1 tank, 2 BMPs, 2 armored vehicles, 1 MLRS, 1 artillery system, 10 vehicles, 5 motorcycles, and 11 drones destroyed. Additional damaged equipment reported.
      • Novopavlivsk Direction: 12 Russian attacks; 1 ongoing. Guided bomb strikes reported.
      • Orikhiv Direction: Guided bomb strikes reported.
      • Kursk Direction: 27 combat clashes; 2 ongoing. 37 airstrikes (49 guided bombs) and 378 shelling incidents.
      • Highlighted Ukrainian Units: 30th Mechanized Brigade, 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade, 406th Artillery Brigade.
    • Assessment: This is a COMPREHENSIVE AND SIGNIFICANT REPORT from the Ukrainian General Staff. It confirms INTENSE FIGHTING across multiple fronts, with a particularly high number of clashes in the Pokrovsk and Kursk directions. The claimed Russian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are SUBSTANTIAL, but REQUIRE INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The report highlights the continued HEAVY RELIANCE ON AERIAL BOMBS by Russian forces.

Updated Situation

  • OVERWHELMING, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME, CRITICAL PRIORITY): The drone threat is now IMMINENT AND CRITICAL across multiple regions, with a confirmed massive and coordinated attack underway. KHARKIV IS UNDER IMMEDIATE THREAT.
  • CONTINUED, REPEATED GUIDED AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY): The continued use of guided bombs in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts poses a severe and ongoing threat.
  • INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (CONFIRMED, HIGH PRIORITY): The General Staff report confirms intense fighting, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Kursk directions.
  • CLAIMED RUSSIAN STRIKES IN KHARKIV OBLAST (REQUIRES VERIFICATION): The claims of strikes near Pishchane and Kupyansk, if true, indicate active Russian offensive actions.
  • UKRAINIAN FORCES RESISTING (CONFIRMED): The General Staff report indicates Ukrainian forces are actively resisting Russian attacks and inflicting casualties.
  • ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED THREATS AND CONCERNS REMAIN VALID: Including the need to verify claimed Russian advances and the situation in Toretsk.

Updated Recommendations

  1. IMMEDIATE, NATIONWIDE AIR DEFENSE RESPONSE, PRIORITIZE KHARKIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • All available air defense systems must be activated and prioritized across all threatened regions, with IMMEDIATE AND OVERWHELMING FOCUS ON KHARKIV.
    • Civilian populations in all threatened areas, ESPECIALLY KHARKIV, must be urged to remain in shelters.
    • Dynamically adjust deployments based on real-time tracking of drone movements.
    • Deploy all available counter-drone technologies, including electronic warfare systems.
  2. ADDRESS IMMEDIATE THREAT TO NIKOPOL (HIGH PRIORITY): (Maintain all previous recommendations)

  3. MAINTAIN EXTREME ALERT FOR GUIDED AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Continue to deploy air defense systems capable of intercepting guided bombs in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts.
    • Maintain heightened surveillance and early warning capabilities.
  4. VERIFY CLAIMED RUSSIAN STRIKES IN KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Deploy intelligence assets to confirm or refute the claimed strikes near Pishchane and Kupyansk.
    • Assess the impact of these strikes, if confirmed.
  5. ASSESS AND RESPOND TO GENERAL STAFF REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Cross-reference the General Staff report with other intelligence sources to verify claims.
    • Identify areas of greatest vulnerability and reinforce defenses accordingly.
    • Continue to support Ukrainian units highlighted in the report.
  6. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN VALID: (Reprioritized based on the updated threat assessment).

The situation is EXTREMELY CRITICAL and has DETERIORATED RAPIDLY due to the massive and coordinated drone attack. The IMMEDIATE THREAT TO KHARKIV is paramount. All available resources must be mobilized to counter the drone threat and protect civilian populations. The continued use of guided aerial bombs and intense fighting across multiple fronts further exacerbate the situation. The priority is to mitigate the drone attacks, then verify and address Russian advancements, and minimize the use of bombs.

Previous (2025-02-10 20:10:13Z)

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