Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 18:08 UTC

Changes Since 17:38 UTC (Highest Priority)

1. EXPANDED AIR THREAT WARNING (CONFIRMED, OFFICIAL):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Added Mykolaivska, Khersonska, and Kirovohradska oblasts to the air threat warning, indicating a potential for aerial attacks using various weapons.
   • Assessment: This significantly EXPANDS the area under immediate threat, indicating a BROADER RUSSIAN AIR OFFENSIVE is potentially underway or imminent.

2. RUSSIAN NEGOTIATION STANCE (CONFIRMED, OFFICIAL):

   • TASS, citing Lavrov: Russia claims readiness for negotiations on Ukraine, but only if its "legitimate interests" are secured, and not at the expense of others. Lavrov states that only the complete and irreversible elimination of the root causes of the conflict can lead to its resolution.
   • Assessment: This reiterates Russia's INFLEXIBLE NEGOTIATING POSITION, demanding significant concessions from Ukraine and the West. It suggests NO WILLINGNESS TO COMPROMISE and likely aims to justify continued military action. The phrase "not at the expense of others" is vague and potentially refers to Russia's demands regarding NATO expansion or the status of occupied territories.

3. FATALITY IN TAVRIISKE, ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (CONFIRMED, OFFICIAL):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: Reports the death of a 29-year-old man due to a Russian attack using guided aerial bombs (KABs) in the Tavriiske community. Private houses were destroyed, and non-residential buildings and vehicles were damaged.
   • Assessment: This confirms a FATAL RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE resulting in civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. The use of KABs indicates precision targeting, potentially of civilian areas. This is a HIGH PRIORITY for investigation as a potential war crime.

4. RUSSIAN DRONE ACTIVITY IN KURSK BORDER AREA (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • MoD Russia: Claims UAV teams from the "Sever Group of Forces" are destroying Ukrainian military facilities, armor, and manpower in the Kursk border area using "Boomerang-10" drones. Claims these drones can operate despite electronic jamming.
   • Assessment: This confirms CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE OPERATIONS in the Kursk region, targeting Ukrainian assets. The claims of the "Boomerang-10" drone's capabilities require independent verification, but suggest an emphasis on overcoming Ukrainian electronic warfare defenses. This is MEDIUM PRIORITY for verification.

5. UKRAINIAN MILITARY UPDATES (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REPORTED):

   • РБК-Україна: Reports on several developments, including:
     • A drone attack on the Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, Russia.
     • US Special Representative for the War in Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is preparing to present plans to Donald Trump for ending the war.
     • The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has approved the use of Ukrainian "Baton" drones.
     • Latvia has ordered Patria 6x6 armored personnel carriers for Ukraine, with delivery expected in late 2025.
   • Assessment: These reports highlight CONTINUED UKRAINIAN ACTIONS INSIDE RUSSIA (refinery attack), potential shifts in US policy (Trump plan), Ukrainian drone development ("Baton"), and long-term military aid commitments (Latvian APCs). The refinery attack is HIGH PRIORITY for verification and assessment of its impact on Russian fuel supplies.

6. MAP UPDATES (RUSSIAN SOURCE, CLAIMED):

   • Z комитет + карта СВО: Provides map updates claiming changes south of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeisk), indicating potential Russian advances near Kotlyno, Shevchenko, and Peschanoe.
   • Assessment: These are RUSSIAN CLAIMS and REQUIRE IMMEDIATE, INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. They align with earlier reports of a potential Russian advance near Udachne, further suggesting a COORDINATED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in this area. This is EXTREME PRIORITY for verification.

7. UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REPORTED):

   • Николаевский Ванёк: Posts video footage of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian soldiers.
   • Assessment: This confirms CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS targeting Russian personnel. This reinforces the importance of drone warfare in the conflict and the vulnerability of exposed Russian troops.

8. UKRAINE TO RECEIVE COMBATANT STATUS AUTOMATICALLY (CONFIRMED, OFFICIAL):

• Оперативний ЗСУ: Announces that more than 2000 defenders have received combatant status.
• Assessment: This is a positive step for Ukraine.

9. EXPLOSION IN PAVLOGRAD (CONFIRMED, REPORTED):

   • Николаевский Ванёк: Reports an explosion in Pavlohrad, claiming the missile was intercepted. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine earlier warned of a high-speed target heading northwest in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
   • Assessment: This confirms an AIR ATTACK on Pavlohrad, likely intercepted. The nature of the target and the extent of any damage require further assessment. This is HIGH PRIORITY.

10. UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVE, DRONE THREAT PERSISTS (CONFIRMED, OFFICIAL):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports the threat of enemy attack drones in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts. Also reports air defense activity in Odesa Oblast against an enemy drone.
    • Assessment: This confirms ONGOING AIR DEFENSE OPERATIONS and a CONTINUING DRONE THREAT across multiple regions.

11. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF CLEARING OPERATIONS IN KURSK (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• *Дневник Десантника🇷🇺:* The Kursk region. Clearing of territories near Makhnovka after the enemy breakthrough continues, also near Fanaseevka and Cherkasskaya Konopelka, the remnants of enemy troops are being cleared. The road from Ulanok to Cherkasskaya Konopelka is completely cleared. Fighting has moved to Sverdlikovo and Pogrebki, the enemy still holds positions, but suffers colossal losses. The Germans continue to transfer manpower and equipment to Sudzha from the Sumy region, and the number of operators of enemy UAVs and the drones themselves has also increased.
  

• **Assessment:** This highlights the continued fighting in the region.
  

12. DRONE ATTACK ON A CAR (CONFIRMED, REPORTED):

    • ASTRA: Reports that a drone has struck a car in the Belgorod region.
    • Assessment: The drone attacks are continuing, and there appears to be little being done to stop them.

13. STRIKES ON UKRAINIAN POSITIONS (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• *Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны:* The “brave” are massively burning NATO armored personnel carriers and other enemy equipment, advancing on Pokrovsk, - another 1 day of fighting by the Central Guards.
  

• **Assessment:** These claims need to be assessed.
  

Updated Situation

• EXPANDED AIR THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY): The air threat warnings now cover a LARGE SWATH OF UKRAINE, indicating a potential major Russian air offensive.
• POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR POKROVSK (EXTREME PRIORITY): The combined reports of a possible advance near Udachne and map updates claiming changes south of Pokrovsk strongly suggest a COORDINATED RUSSIAN EFFORT to break through Ukrainian lines in this area. This is the MOST CRITICAL development.
• CONFIRMED FATALITY AND DAMAGE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY): The Russian airstrike using KABs highlights the ongoing risk to civilians and infrastructure.
• CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE: Both sides continue to rely heavily on drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian attacks inside Russia (refinery) are confirmed, while Russian drone activity in the Kursk region is reported.
• RUSSIAN NEGOTIATING STANCE REMAINS INFLEXIBLE: Russia shows no signs of willingness to compromise, demanding significant concessions.
• POTENTIAL SHIFTS IN US POLICY: Reports suggest the Trump administration may be considering plans for ending the war, but details are unclear.
• RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF CLEARING OPERATIONS IN KURSK (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Continued operations.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Prioritize air defense systems across all threatened oblasts, with particular focus on areas facing potential aerial attacks using various weapons (Mykolaivska, Khersonska, Kirovohradska, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv).
   • Continuously monitor for incoming threats (missiles, drones) and respond promptly.

2. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR POKROVSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to confirm or refute the claimed Russian advances near Udachne, Kotlyno, Shevchenko, and Peschanoe.
   • Analyze map updates and cross-reference them with other intelligence sources.
   • Assess the implications of any confirmed advance for Ukrainian defensive positions and lines of communication.
   • Prepare contingency plans for reinforcing Ukrainian positions or conducting counter-attacks if necessary.

3. INVESTIGATE TAVRIISKE AIRSTRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather evidence of the airstrike, including the type of munitions used (KABs) and the targeting.
   • Document civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
   • Assess the potential for war crimes charges.

4. ASSESS IMPACT OF AFIPSKY REFINERY ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Verify the attack on the Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, Russia.
   • Determine the extent of the damage and its potential impact on Russian fuel supplies.

5. MONITOR RUSSIAN DRONE ACTIVITY IN KURSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Verify claims of "Boomerang-10" drone operations in the Kursk border area.
   • Assess the effectiveness of these drones and their ability to overcome Ukrainian electronic warfare defenses.

6. ASSESS EXPLOSION IN PAVLOGRAD (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Determine the nature of the target and the extent of any damage, despite the reported interception.

7. TRACK LONG-TERM MILITARY AID COMMITMENTS:

   • Monitor the progress of the Latvian order for Patria 6x6 armored personnel carriers for Ukraine.

8. MONITOR POTENTIAL SHIFTS IN US POLICY:

   • Gather information on any plans being prepared by Keith Kellogg for Donald Trump regarding ending the war in Ukraine.

9. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN VALID (REPRIORITIZED): All previously issued recommendations remain valid, but are prioritized below the immediate need to address the expanding air threat and the potential Russian advance near Pokrovsk.

The situation remains highly dynamic and dangerous, with the expanding air threat and the potential Russian advance near Pokrovsk representing the most critical developments requiring immediate action and verification. Continued drone warfare and potential shifts in international policy further complicate the situation.