Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 16:38 UTC
Changes Since 16:08 UTC (High Priority)
Baltic Corruption (REPORTED, POTENTIALLY BIASED):
Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia): Shares a video of a decrepit soccer field.
Assessment:This is IRRELEVANT to the Ukrainian Military, but suggests propaganda.
Russian Tank and Armored Vehicle Modernization (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺: Reports on the modernization of the T-80 tank and the BREM-80 armored recovery vehicle, highlighting improvements in electronic warfare capabilities, dynamic protection, and anti-drone measures for the T-80, and enhanced engine power for the BREM-80. Claims this is done to ensure its ability to tow Western-supplied heavy tanks like the Leopard.
Assessment:This is a SIGNIFICANT development, indicating Russian efforts to adapt to the evolving battlefield, particularly in response to drone threats and Western-supplied armor. The focus on anti-drone measures for the T-80 is particularly noteworthy. The claim of improved engine power for the BREM-80 suggests a need to handle heavier equipment, either captured Western tanks or heavier Russian vehicles. This is from a RUSSIAN SOURCE and should be viewed with an understanding of potential bias.
Оперативний ЗСУ: Shows drone footage of a strike on at least one person.
Assessment: This highlights Ukraine's ongoing targeting strategy.
Sumy Propaganda (REPORTED):
РБК-Україна: Reports that the Ukrainian SBU has successfully taken down a propagandist.
Assessment: This is a MINOR update.
Air Raid Alert Lifted (CONFIRMED):
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 & Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports the air raid alert has been lifted.
Assessment: The area is safe, for now.
Kupyansk Direction Fighting (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad: Reports Russian advances west of Zapadnoye towards Doroshovka, expansion of the bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskol River, and intense fighting near Figolevka. Claims Ukrainian forces are losing personnel and equipment while attempting to hold their positions.
Assessment: This is a MAJOR update. It reports continued Russian pressure.
Forced Conscription (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: Reports that Russia is forcing residents to join the army.
Assessment: This may indicate a need for manpower.
Fire in Moscow (REPORTED):
ТАСС: Reports that the fire is out.
Assessment: This is IRRELEVANT to the Ukrainian military situation.
Donations (REPORTED):
ASTRA: Asks for donations to pay staff.
Assessment: This is IRRELEVANT to the Ukrainian military situation.
Drone Strike in Kursk Region (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС: Reports a Ukrainian drone strike targeting a Russian soldier in the Kursk region. Claims the strike was carried out by the "The Ravens" unit of the 129th Brigade.
Assessment:This is a SIGNIFICANT development, as it indicates Ukrainian cross-border operations and the use of drones to target individual soldiers. This demonstrates Ukraine's willingness to strike targets inside Russia.
Killing in Germany (REPORTED):
РБК-Україна: Reports that the suspect has confessed.
Assessment: This is IRRELEVANT to the Ukrainian military situation.
Russian Demands (REPORTED):
ТАСС: Reports that Russia demands transparency from the West.
Assessment: This is IRRELEVANT to the Ukrainian military situation.
Fundraising (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
STERNENKO: Asks for donations.
Assessment: This suggests a need for resources.
Nikopol Attacks (REPORTED, OFFICIAL/RELIABLE):
🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА): Reports over 30 attacks.
Assessment: This indicates heavy shelling and drone activity in the region.
Airshow (REPORTED):
WarGonzo: Reports on Russia showcasing its aircraft.
Assessment: This is a propaganda message.
Propaganda (REPORTED):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны: Shares a message about a daughter of a US special representative who is running a foundation to evacuate US mercenaries.
Assessment: This is propaganda meant to influence US policy.
Drone Strike (REPORTED):
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: Reports up to 10 strikes.
Assessment: This is a MAJOR update, suggesting heavy shelling.
Soldier Death (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Военкор Котенок: Reports the death of Tasbolat Ibrashev, a soldier known for his actions in the 2008 South Ossetia conflict, in Volchansk, Kharkiv region on February 3, 2025.
Assessment: This is a MINOR update.
Gas Installation Strike (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺: Reports that the facility has been destroyed.
Assessment: This shows efforts to degrade infrastructure.
M113 Strike (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
MoD Russia: Shares video of the strike.
Assessment: This requires further analysis.
Drone Strikes in Donetsk (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS: Reports Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military equipment (2 tanks, 2 BTRs, 2 BMPs, and a BTS-4 armored recovery vehicle) in the Donetsk region, carried out by the "Phoenix" drone unit of the "Pomsta" brigade. Provides video evidence.
Assessment: This is a MAJOR update, suggesting significant losses.
Updated Situation
IMMEDIATE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (RESOLVED, BUT CONCERN REMAINS): The reported threat of ballistic missile use was lifted, but the underlying threat remains.
ODESSA ATTACK - DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NEEDED (HIGH PRIORITY): While the immediate missile threat to Odessa is reported as neutralized, it is CRITICAL to assess any damage caused by the explosions and determine the type of missile used.
CONTINUED FIGHTING, POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY): Reports, though needing verification, suggest continued Russian pressure near Chasov Yar and now significant advances near Zapadnoye towards Doroshovka in the Kupyansk direction. The claimed expansion of the bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskol River is particularly concerning.
DRONE WARFARE REMAINS CENTRAL (EXTREME PRIORITY): The confirmed Ukrainian drone strikes (from the previous update), the drone strike on the M113, the ongoing threat, and new reports of Ukrainian drone strikes in Donetsk and Kursk regions, highlight the centrality of drone and missile warfare.
INFORMATION WARFARE PERSISTS (HIGH PRIORITY): Both sides continue to engage in propaganda and disinformation, attempting to shape narratives and influence public opinion.
INTERNAL TENSIONS in UKRAINIAN MILITARY (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The detailed account of the deceased Ukrainian soldier reveals criticism of high-ranking Ukrainian officers, suggesting potential internal challenges and morale issues. The arrest of the TCC official highlights ongoing issues with corruption.
UKRAINIAN THERMOBARIC SYSTEM (HIGH PRIORITY): The development and deployment of the "Sivalka VM-8" system is a SIGNIFICANT development, potentially altering the balance of power on the battlefield.
RUSSIAN TANK AND ARMORED VEHICLE MODERNIZATION (HIGH PRIORITY): The reported upgrades to the T-80 and BREM-80 indicate a Russian effort to adapt to the evolving battlefield, specifically addressing drone threats and the presence of Western-supplied heavy armor.
Updated Recommendations
PRIORITIZE AIR DEFENSE AGAINST BALLISTIC MISSILES (RESOLVED, MONITOR):
Maintain constant monitoring of the situation.
ASSESS DAMAGE in ODESSA (HIGH PRIORITY):
Deploy damage assessment teams to determine the extent of any damage caused by the explosions in Odessa.
Identify the type of missile used in the attack.
Repair any damaged infrastructure as quickly as possible.
Deploy all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the claimed Russian advances near Chasov Yar and especially the reported advances in the Kupyansk direction, including the bridgehead expansion.
Assess the impact of any confirmed territorial changes on the overall strategic situation. The Kupyansk situation is now of EXTREME CONCERN.
MAINTAIN FOCUS on COUNTER-DRONE MEASURES (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Continue to prioritize the development and deployment of counter-drone technologies and tactics.
Protect critical infrastructure and military assets from drone attacks.
INVESTIGATE M113 STRIKE: Verify the destruction.
ADDRESS INTERNAL ISSUES in UKRAINIAN MILITARY (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Continue to investigate and address corruption within the mobilization system, as highlighted by the arrest of the TCC official.
Take steps to improve morale and address any legitimate grievances within the ranks.
COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY):
Actively debunk false claims and promote accurate information.
Address Russian narratives designed to dehumanize Ukrainians or justify aggression.
MONITOR UKRAINIAN THERMOBARIC SYSTEM (HIGH PRIORITY):
Gather intelligence on the deployment and use of the "Sivalka VM-8" system.
Assess its impact on the battlefield and develop appropriate countermeasures if necessary.
VERIFY and ANALYZE UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES in DONETSK and KURSK (HIGH PRIORITY):
Confirm the reported drone strikes and assess the damage inflicted.
Analyze the implications of the Kursk strike, particularly its cross-border nature. This may indicate a shift in Ukrainian tactics.
ANALYZE RUSSIAN TANK and ARMORED VEHICLE MODERNIZATION (HIGH PRIORITY):
Gather further intelligence on the reported upgrades to the T-80 and BREM-80.
Assess the potential impact of these upgrades on the battlefield.
ASSESS IMPACT of NIKOPOL ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY):
Deploy damage assessment.
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN VALID: Maintain a heightened state of alert, continue to verify claims, assess impacts, and focus on key areas. Leverage Ukrainian drone capabilities, prioritize air defense in threatened regions, investigate and counter propaganda, address the potential impact of US funding delays, investigate conflicting claims, and leverage official reports.
The reported Russian advances in the Kupyansk direction are now the most critical development, requiring immediate verification and assessment. The continued centrality of drone warfare, with confirmed Ukrainian strikes inside Russia and ongoing attacks in multiple regions, remains a paramount concern. The Russian efforts to modernize their armored forces, specifically addressing drone threats, also demand close attention.
