Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 15:38 UTC
Changes Since 15:11 UTC (Extreme Priority)
Confirmed Ukrainian Drone Strike Video (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
ОТУ "Харків" (15:12 UTC): Released video footage showing a "combined unit" of Russian forces ("Авто-мото-вело-фото") attempting to assault Ukrainian positions. The video depicts drone strikes destroying Russian armored vehicles (tanks and APCs). The 113th Separate Brigade is identified as involved. The caption includes a recruitment message for drone operators.
Assessment:This is DIRECT VISUAL EVIDENCE of UKRAINIAN DRONE WARFARE SUCCESSES against Russian armored units, specifically in the Kharkiv operational area. The winter conditions and forested terrain are clearly visible. The video reinforces previous reports of effective Ukrainian drone tactics. This is a HIGH-PRIORITY confirmation of ongoing combat.
47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» (15:12 UTC): Released video footage showing an FPV drone strike against a wounded Russian soldier, resulting in his death. The caption indicates the strike took place near Kursk.
Assessment:This is DIRECT VISUAL EVIDENCE of a UKRAINIAN FPV DRONE STRIKE targeting an individual soldier. This highlights the precision and lethality of FPV drones and their use against individual targets. This is a HIGH-PRIORITY confirmation of ongoing combat and use of FPV technology.
Russian Su-57 Display in India (REPORTED):
Kotsnews (15:14 UTC): Reports on Russian test pilot Sergey Bogdan demonstrating the capabilities of the Su-57 fighter jet (NATO designation: Felon) at the Aero India airshow in Bangalore. Claims the Su-57 is actively participating in the "SMO" (Special Military Operation - Russia's term for the war in Ukraine) and that Ukrainian radars "cannot see it." Also mentions the F-35 as a competitor.
Assessment:This is a RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA effort to promote the capabilities of the Su-57, both for potential export sales (to India) and to demonstrate its effectiveness in the war. The claim of invulnerability to Ukrainian radar requires independent verification. The comparison with the F-35 highlights a technological competition.
Reported Drone Attacks on Russian Infrastructure (REPORTED):
ASTRA (15:16 UTC): Reports multiple drone attacks on infrastructure in Russia over the past two days (February 8-10). Targets include:
Rostvertol helicopter plant in Rostov (part of Rostec, under sanctions).
Transneft-Privolga oil pumping station in Chertkovsky district, Rostov region.
Andriyanovskaya linear production and dispatch station (part of the Kuibyshev-Lysychansk oil pipeline) in Volgograd region.
Slavyansk-ECO oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai.
Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai.
Oil depot in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov region.
Residential buildings in Afipsky and Krasnodar. Ukrainian media claims the Afipsky oil refinery was the target.
Assessment:This is a SIGNIFICANT REPORT suggesting a pattern of UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS targeting RUSSIAN ENERGY and MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE deep inside Russia. This indicates a Ukrainian capability to strike beyond the immediate frontline and to target economically and militarily important assets. VERIFICATION of the extent of damage is needed, but the scope of targets is substantial.
Renewed Air Strikes on Kharkiv Region (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (15:16 UTC): Reports renewed launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in the eastern Kharkiv region.
Assessment:This CONFIRMS a CONTINUATION of RUSSIAN AIR STRIKES targeting the Kharkiv region. This aligns with the earlier reports of Russian tactical aviation activity and the threat of air strikes.
Commemoration of Tasbolat Ibrashev (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
Multiple Russian Sources (e.g., Дневник Десантника, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, WarGonzo): Report the death of Tasbolat Ibrashev on February 3, 2025, in Volchansk, Kharkiv region. Ibrashev gained fame in 2008 for stopping a Georgian military column with a machine gun during the South Ossetia war.
Assessment:This is a RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA effort to commemorate a "hero" figure and potentially boost morale. The death of a prominent figure in a contested area (Volchansk) is notable.
Propaganda Claiming Ukrainian Forces Using Civilians as Hostages (REPORTED):
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА: (15:00) Claims that Ukrainian Forces are moving civilians from Kostyantynivka to Chasovyi Yar.
Assessment: The claim that the Ukrainian military would hold civilians as hostages to stage attacks needs to be treated with scepticism.
Renewed Launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (REPORTED):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (15:07) Reports renewed attacks.
Assessment: This suggests continued Russian air force activity.
Updated Situation
CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN DRONE SUCCESSES (EXTREME PRIORITY): Video evidence confirms Ukrainian forces are effectively using drones (both for reconnaissance and attack) against Russian armored units and individual soldiers. This includes strikes deep inside Russia targeting critical infrastructure.
INTENSIFIED FIGHTING CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY): Reports from both Ukrainian and Russian sources confirm continued intense fighting, especially on the Pokrovsk and Kursk directions. The reported Ukrainian successes near Pokrovsk (retaking positions) and the simultaneous Russian claims of advances in the Dnipropetrovsk direction require IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION.
RUSSIAN AIR STRIKES CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed reports of renewed guided aerial bomb launches in the Kharkiv region highlight the persistent air threat.
DRONE WARFARE ESCALATES (HIGH PRIORITY): The confirmed Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russia, targeting key infrastructure, represent a significant escalation.
INFORMATION WARFARE INTENSIFIES (HIGH PRIORITY): Both sides are actively using propaganda, highlighting successes, commemorating "heroes," and making claims about enemy actions (e.g., the fabricated Zelenskyy story).
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN EXTREME FOCUS on COUNTER-DRONE MEASURES (EXTREME PRIORITY):
The confirmed Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russia highlight the urgent need to improve defenses against drone attacks.
Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure (energy facilities, military plants, transportation hubs).
Deploy electronic warfare systems and other counter-drone technologies.
VERIFY REPORTED DRONE ATTACKS INSIDE RUSSIA (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Deploy all available intelligence assets to verify the extent of damage caused by the reported drone attacks on Russian infrastructure.
Assess the impact on Russian logistics, energy production, and military capabilities.
Continue to exploit the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare, particularly in targeting Russian armored units and logistical routes.
Maintain focus on integrating drone operations into overall strategic planning.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR and MISSILE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY):
Prioritize air defense readiness in the Kharkiv region due to the confirmed ongoing Russian air strikes.
Maintain air defense readiness across all threatened regions, particularly Zaporizhzhia (due to the earlier alert).
INVESTIGATE and COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY):
Actively debunk false claims and promote accurate information.
Address Russian narratives regarding "heroes" and alleged Ukrainian atrocities.
ADDRESS POTENTIAL IMPACT of US FUNDING DELAYS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Continue efforts to explore alternative funding sources for war crimes investigations and other critical programs.
Maintain diplomatic efforts to secure continued US support.
VERIFY CONFLICTING CLAIMS on POKROVSK and DNIPROPETROVSK DIRECTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY):
Deploy all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the claims of both Ukrainian counter-offensive successes near Pokrovsk and Russian advances in the Dnipropetrovsk direction.
Assess the impact of these claims on the overall strategic situation.
LEVERAGE OFFICIAL UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY):
Continue to use the detailed information from the General Staff report to inform operational planning and resource allocation.
Prioritize efforts in areas identified as experiencing the most intense fighting.
INVESTIGATE ALLEGATIONS OF UKRAINIAN TERRORIST ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Deploy all available intelligence assets to investigate the reported UAV attack on a civilian car in the Zaporozhye region.
Deploy all available intelligence assets to verify the claim that the Russian company is purchasing American and German products.
If confirmed, address the issue to ensure the products do not reach Russia.
MONITOR POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN ROMANIA (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Gather intelligence on the political situation in Romania, including the reasons for the President's resignation and the upcoming elections.
Assess the potential impact on regional stability, NATO cohesion, and support for Ukraine.
Develop contingency plans for potential scenarios, including increased Russian influence or instability in Romania.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR AND MISSILE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY):
* Maintain air defense readiness across Ukraine, focusing on areas identified in the Russian strike timeline.
* Continue to improve early warning systems and provide timely alerts to civilians.
LEVERAGE LITHUANIAN SUPPORT FOR DRONE AND ANTI-DRONE CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY):
Coordinate closely with Lithuania to ensure the effective delivery and integration of the provided drones and anti-drone systems.
Facilitate the sharing of expertise and best practices in drone warfare and counter-drone measures.
CONTINUE COUNTER-DRONE EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY):
Prioritize the development and deployment of counter-drone technologies, including electronic warfare systems and physical defenses.
Train personnel on counter-drone tactics and procedures.
PREPARE FOR A PROTRACTED CONFLICT (HIGH PRIORITY):
Develop long-term strategies for sustaining the war effort, including resource mobilization, training, and logistics.
Manage public expectations regarding the duration of the conflict.
Maintain focus on both military and diplomatic efforts.
ADDRESS RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY):
Deploy all available intelligence assets to investigate the Ukrainian claims that Russia is engaging in disinformation.
Gather evidence to support the claim.
ADDRESS ISSUES WITHIN RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Deploy all available intelligence assets to investigate Russian draft-dodging measures.
Gather evidence to support the claim.
The situation remains highly dynamic and volatile, with intense fighting and escalating drone warfare. The confirmed Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russia targeting critical infrastructure represent a significant development. Verifying conflicting claims and addressing the persistent air threat remain immediate priorities.
