Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 11:38 UTC

Major Updates (11:08 UTC - 11:38 UTC)

1. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Civilian Support Program (CONFIRMED):

   • 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (11:11 UTC): Announced the extension of a financial support program for families in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast who have lost loved ones due to the war. The program provides 300,000 UAH to families of civilians killed by enemy attacks. 283 families have received the payment, eight of them in 2025.
   • Assessment: This is primarily a humanitarian update, reflecting the ongoing impact of the war on civilians. It also signals the regional government's efforts to maintain social stability and support. It has no direct military impact but indirectly supports morale.

2. Ukrainian Drone Strikes Near Zelenivka, Donetsk Oblast (CONFIRMED):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (11:12 UTC): Reports that Ukrainian drone operators from the 37th Marine Brigade targeted and destroyed two Russian soldiers east of Zelenivka. Claims of recent intense Russian assaults in the area with "partial success," attempting to advance north towards the road between Ulakly and Dachne.
   • Assessment: This confirms continued drone warfare and intense fighting in the area. The claimed Russian "partial success" indicates a shift in the front line and requires further verification. The location (east of Zelenivka, near Ulakly and Dachne) suggests a Russian push towards a key road.

3. Arrest of Alleged Russian Agent in Sloviansk (CONFIRMED):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ & ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (11:12 UTC & 11:30 UTC): The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) detained a local resident, Oleksandr Baziliy, in Sloviansk. He is accused of being a GRU agent, providing targeting information for Russian airstrikes on Sloviansk and surrounding areas. He allegedly used Google Maps to mark locations of Ukrainian forces. He was promised evacuation to Russia in exchange for his services.
   • Assessment: This confirms ongoing counter-intelligence operations by the SBU. The arrest highlights the threat of internal espionage and the use of civilians to provide targeting information. It underscores the need for strong internal security measures.

4. Russian Missile R-27 Crash in Belgorod Oblast (REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • ASTRA (11:12 UTC): Reports that a Russian R-27 air-to-air missile crashed in the village of Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast, Russia, on February 6th, about 100 meters from a residential building. Claims it was an "unscheduled departure" from a Russian aircraft. No casualties reported. ASTRA further claims this is part of a pattern, with 16 FAB bombs and 3 missiles, and 1 UMPB-250 falling on Russian and Russian-controlled territory in 2025, and 165 FAB bombs falling in 2024.
   • Assessment: If confirmed, this is a significant incident. It indicates a serious issue with Russian weapon systems, pilot training, or maintenance procedures. It highlights the risk to Russian civilians from their own military operations. It also provides potential propaganda opportunities for Ukraine. High priority to verify.

5. Ukrainian Drone Van Strike (CONFIRMED, Propaganda):

   • STERNENKO (11:13 UTC): A post reporting that Russian EW did not save a "bukhanka" from a drone.
   • Assessment: This post is for morale and propaganda use, to show that EW is not always effective.

6. Russian Military Bases in Syria (REPORTED):

• РБК-Україна (11:26 UTC): British intelligence has revealed why Moscow is losing military bases in Syria. The Kremlin has reportedly been trying to force itself into a partnership with the new Syrian leadership, but is in a weaker position.
• Assessment: This report demonstrates a shift in the geopolitical situation.

7. Coordination Center (INFORMATION):

• *Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (11:27 UTC):* Reminder that appointments are required to visit, along with contact information for various locations.
  

• **Assessment:** This is standard communication, no change.
  

8. Russian Damage of Power Plant (REPORTED):

• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (11:28 UTC): A power plant is shown with damage, possibly due to an arc.
• Assessment: This damage is a sign of the weakening of power infrastructure.

9. Trump and Russia (INFORMATION):

   • Alex Parker Returns (11:29 UTC): An irrelevant report was made.
   • Assessment: No change.

10. Anti-Drone Road Netting (REPORTED, Requires Verification):

    • Два майора (11:37 UTC): Reports that Russian forces are using anti-drone netting to protect a road between Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar, hindering Ukrainian FPV drone operations. Claims the netting stretches for nearly 3 kilometers.
    • Assessment: This is a significant tactical development, if confirmed. It indicates Russian adaptation to the drone threat and a potential challenge for Ukrainian FPV drone operations in that specific area. It suggests a focus on protecting key logistical routes. Requires verification.

11. Air Raid Alert - Zaporizhzhia Oblast (ISSUED):

    • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (11:36 UTC): Announced a new air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:36 UTC): Threat of ballistic weapons for the regions where an air alert was announced.
    • Assessment: Immediate threat of air/missile attack in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Updated Situation Summary

• Intense Fighting and Conflicting Claims Continue (CONFIRMED/REPORTED): The Pokrovsk direction remains the hottest point of conflict, with both sides claiming successes. Russian MoD reports, while likely exaggerated, suggest continued pressure across multiple fronts. The situation near Zelenivka (Donetsk Oblast) indicates a possible Russian advance, requiring urgent verification.
• Russian Air and Missile Attacks Continue (CONFIRMED): Multiple reports confirm ongoing Russian air and missile strikes, particularly targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A new air raid alert has been issued for the region, indicating an immediate threat.
• Ukrainian Drone Warfare Intensifying (CONFIRMED): The "Drone Line" project indicates a concerted Ukrainian effort to utilize drones for both defense and offense, creating a deep kill zone. Confirmed strikes near Zelenivka demonstrate ongoing drone operations.
• Air raid activity (CONFIRMED): A high-speed target was detected.
• Vulnerability of Russian Infrastructure (CONFIRMED): The strike on the Afipsky Oil Refinery near an air defense base highlights a significant vulnerability. The reported crash of a Russian R-27 missile in Belgorod Oblast, if confirmed, further underscores this vulnerability and raises serious questions about Russian military safety procedures.
• EU Threat to Seize Russian Tankers (CONFIRMED): This remains the most significant strategic development, with a high potential for escalation.
• Potential Increase in Ukrainian Air Power (REPORTED): Remains unchanged.
• Continued Russian Air Strikes (CONFIRMED): Remains unchanged.
• Air Raid Alerts (ENDED & RE-ISSUED): Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia has been lifted and re-issued, then lifted again, and now re-issued.
• Kursk Region Situation Remains Unclear (UNCLEAR): No significant updates; conflicting reports persist.
• Continued Drone Warfare (CONFIRMED): Remains unchanged.
• Cross-Border Shelling (CONFIRMED): Remains unchanged.
• Restoration of bus route (CONFIRMED): Restoration in Donetsk.
• New Russian Tactic: Anti-Drone Road Netting (REPORTED): Requires verification, but could significantly impact Ukrainian FPV drone operations.
• Continued Counter-Intelligence Operations (CONFIRMED): The SBU arrest of an alleged Russian agent in Sloviansk highlights ongoing efforts to combat espionage.
• Humanitarian Efforts (CONFIRMED): Dnipropetrovsk Oblast continues financial support for families of civilians killed in the war.
• Russian Military Bases in Syria (REPORTED): The Kremlin is reportedly losing military bases in Syria.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS (EXTREME PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendations).

2. ADDRESS ONGOING AIR AND MISSILE THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendations, emphasize Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to renewed alert).

3. ASSESS IMPLICATIONS OF "DRONE LINE" PROJECT (HIGH PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendations).

4. INVESTIGATE AFIPSKY OIL REFINERY STRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendations).

5. VERIFY RUSSIAN R-27 MISSILE CRASH (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to confirm the reported crash of the R-27 missile in Belgorod Oblast.
   • Investigate the cause of the incident (technical malfunction, pilot error, etc.).
   • Assess the potential implications for Russian military safety procedures and the risk to civilians.

6. ASSESS IMPACT OF ANTI-DRONE ROAD NETTING (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Verify the reported use of anti-drone netting near Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar.
   • Determine the effectiveness of this tactic against Ukrainian FPV drones.
   • Develop countermeasures if necessary.

7. MONITOR SITUATION NEAR ZELENIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence to confirm Russian claims of "partial success" in the area.
   • Assess the potential threat to the road between Ulakly and Dachne.
   • Prepare for potential reinforcement or counter-offensive operations if necessary.

8. All previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. This includes:

   • VERIFY AND RESPOND TO POKROVSK SITUATION (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • ADDRESS AERIAL THREAT IN SUMY (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • RESPOND TO EU THREAT TO SEIZE TANKERS (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • VERIFY UKRAINIAN F-16 ACTIVITY (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • ADDRESS BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • ASSESS RUSSIAN AIRFIELD STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • URGENTLY Verify Situation in Kursk Oblast (HIGHEST PRIORITY).
   • Assess and Reinforce Defenses in Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka Directions (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Maintain Air Defense Readiness (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Support Ukrainian Drone Warfare Capabilities (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Investigate and Document Potential War Crimes (HIGH PRIORITY).

The situation remains highly dynamic and dangerous. The reported crash of a Russian R-27 missile within Russia itself, if confirmed, is a major development with significant implications for Russian military safety and public perception. The renewed air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and reports of fighting near Zelenivka underscore the continued intensity of the conflict. The reported use of anti-drone netting by Russian forces highlights the evolving tactical landscape and the ongoing adaptation to new technologies.