Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 04:08 UTC
Major Updates (03:38 UTC - 04:08 UTC)
Air Raid Alert Lifted - Zaporizhzhia Oblast (CONFIRMED):
Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (03:54 UTC): Announced the end of the air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Assessment: The immediate threat of air attack in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has passed. However, the broader threat situation remains volatile.
Ballistic Missile Threat Lifted (CONFIRMED):
Ukrainian Air Force / RBK-Ukraine (03:54/03:55 UTC): Announced the end of the threat of ballistic missile use.
Assessment: This is a significant de-escalation, at least temporarily. However, it does NOT mean all air threats have ceased.
Overnight Drone Attacks (CONFIRMED):
Dva Mayora (03:50 UTC): Reports that Russian air defenses repelled drone attacks overnight in Rostov Oblast (Millerovo district), Krasnodar (damage to a residential complex and a private home), and Bryansk Oblast (three drones destroyed).
Assessment: This confirms that Ukraine conducted a widespread drone attack overnight, targeting multiple regions within Russia. The attacks caused some damage, but were largely repelled according to this source.
Russian Drone Strikes (CONFIRMED):
Dva Mayora (03:50 UTC): Reports that Russian forces conducted drone strikes against targets in Kyiv, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Chernihiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Also claims an increase in the average daily use of Russian drones to 150.
Assessment: This confirms reciprocal Russian drone attacks, targeting a broad swath of Ukrainian territory. The claimed increase in Russian drone usage, if true, is a concerning development.
Kursk Region Fighting (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Dva Mayora (03:50 UTC): Claims Ukrainian forces near Fanaseevka have been "completely destroyed" and that Russian forces have pushed them back from positions near Cherkasskaya Konopelka. Claims ongoing heavy fighting near Sverdlikovo and Pogrebkov, and Ukrainian attempts to reinforce Viktorovka. Also, claims of 9 private homes damaged by Ukrainian shelling in Slobodka (Rylsky district).
Assessment: These are significant claims of Russian success, but come from a pro-Russian source and require independent verification. They suggest continued intense fighting along the Kursk border region.
Kupyansk Direction Advances (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Dva Mayora (03:50 UTC): Claims Russian forces have created a "pocket" between Zapadne and Dvurichne, on the right bank of the Oskil River, suggesting slow but steady advances in the northern Kharkiv region.
Assessment: This requires independent verification. If true, it indicates a continued Russian push in the Kupyansk direction.
Chasiv Yar Situation (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Dva Mayora (03:50 UTC): Reports no significant changes in the front line at Chasiv Yar. Mentions the extensive use of FPV drones by Ukrainian forces, requiring the construction of a protected corridor for Russian vehicle movement between Artemivsk (Bakhmut) and Chasiv Yar. Claims the liberation of Orekhovo-Vasylivka by the "South" group of forces.
Assessment: This suggests a stalemate around Chasiv Yar, with heavy drone use by both sides. The claim of capturing Orekhovo-Vasylivka, if true, would be a minor Russian tactical gain.
Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Dva Mayora (03:50 UTC): Claims that Russian FSB special units are conducting a "cleansing" operation in Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) against potential Ukrainian saboteurs, with continued fighting on the outskirts.
Assessment: This supports previous claims of Russian control over Toretsk, but remains unverified.
Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk Direction (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Dva Mayora (03:50 UTC): Reports counter-battles, with Kyiv moving reserves from Kryvyi Rih to Donbas. Claims a Ukrainian counterattack near Pokrovsk was repelled, and Russian success southwest of Pokrovsk in Uspenivka, with fighting for Novooleksandrivka and Udachne.
Assessment: This points to the ongoing importance of the Pokrovsk direction, with both sides committing forces.
Konstantinopol Direction (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Dva Mayora (03:50 UTC): Claims fighting west of Dachne and that the "pocket" created after taking Kurakhovo is shrinking. Reports fighting in the eastern part of Andriivka.
Assessment: Suggests continued Russian efforts to advance.
Zaporizhzhia Front - Enerhodar (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Dva Mayora (03:50 UTC): Claims high concentration of Ukrainian FPV drones on the Vasylivka-Tokmak road. Reports four Ukrainian drone attacks on Enerhodar, damaging high-voltage equipment.
Assessment: Highlights the persistent threat of Ukrainian drone attacks, particularly targeting critical infrastructure.
Belgorod Oblast Attacks (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Dva Mayora (03:50 UTC): Reports various drone attacks on civilian infrastructure in Belgorod Oblast, including a private home in Terebreno, damaged glazing in Konovalovo, damage to an agricultural enterprise in Murom, and a car attack in Belyanka (one man wounded). Detonation damage in Urazovo.
Assessment: Confirms continued Ukrainian cross-border attacks, primarily using drones.
DPR Casualties (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Dva Mayora (03:50 UTC): Claims a pharmacist was injured in Horlivka by Ukrainian artillery fire. Damage reported to 6 homes, 4 civilian infrastructure objects (lyceum, pharmacy, power lines), in Panteleimonivka. Claims over 10 Ukrainian attacks using 155mm artillery (including cluster munitions) and drones.
Assessment: Reports civilian casualties and damage from alleged Ukrainian attacks.
Kamikaze KAMAZ Truck (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Dva Mayora (04:02 UTC): Video shows a KAMAZ truck loaded with explosives, apparently driven remotely towards Ukrainian positions and detonated.
Assessment: This confirms a significant, if unconventional, Russian tactic of using large vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs). This has significant implications for Ukrainian defensive positions.
Israeli Army Actions (IRRELEVANT):
TASS (03:53 UTC): Reports that the Israeli army killed 7 Palestinian journalists over the past month.
Assessment: This is outside the scope of the Ukraine conflict.
Updated Situation Summary
Threats Receding: Air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the threat of ballistic missiles have been lifted.
Reciprocal Drone Warfare: Both sides conducted widespread drone attacks overnight. Ukraine targeted multiple regions within Russia, causing some damage. Russia targeted several Ukrainian oblasts.
Increased Russian Drone Usage (REPORTED): A claim of a significant increase in the daily average number of Russian drone attacks.
Kursk and Kharkiv Fronts (RUSSIAN CLAIMS): Russian sources claim significant gains along the Kursk border and continued, slow advances in the Kupyansk direction.
Chasiv Yar Stalemate: The situation around Chasiv Yar appears to be a stalemate, with heavy drone use by both sides.
Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk: Russian sources maintain claims of control.
Pokrovsk Direction: Both sides commit forces, with reported counter-battles.
Zaporizhzhia/Enerhodar: Persistent Ukrainian drone threat, particularly against infrastructure.
Belgorod Oblast: Continued Ukrainian cross-border drone attacks.
KAMAZ VBIED: Confirmed use of a large, remotely-controlled truck bomb by Russian forces.
Frontline Images: There are a number of pictures of the front, showing a destroyed Kozak armored vehicle, a downed Shahed-136 drone, a hand holding bullets, a dog in tactical gear, a soldier and a civilian next to a dummy, and an Mi-24 attack helicopter.
Updated Recommendations
Verify Russian Claims (HIGH PRIORITY):
Focus intelligence gathering on verifying the numerous Russian claims of advances, particularly in the Kursk region, Kupyansk direction, and Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk. Independent confirmation is crucial.
Investigate the claim of increased Russian drone usage. If true, this necessitates a reassessment of air defense strategies and resource allocation.
Counter-VBIED Measures (HIGH PRIORITY):
Develop and implement strategies to counter the use of large VBIEDs, such as the KAMAZ truck. This may involve enhanced surveillance, early warning systems, and physical barriers.
Maintain Drone Defense Readiness (HIGH PRIORITY):
Given the widespread and reciprocal drone attacks, maintain high readiness of air defense systems across the country.
Monitor Belgorod Oblast (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Continue to monitor cross-border attacks into Belgorod Oblast and adjust defenses as needed.
All Previous Recommendations Regarding Chasiv Yar, Drone Warfare, and General Alertness Remain in Effect.
Review frontline pictures:
Analyze the damaged equipment to extract intelligence,
Monitor and search for patch on the picture of the soldier to check for any strategic implications.
